On Saturday evening, April 9, the Pakistani parliament voted to no confidence in the government of Prime Minister Imran Khan, by a majority of 174 deputies, while the decision to withdraw confidence from the Prime Minister constitutionally requires the approval of 172 votes.

This came two days after the Special Judicial Committee made up of the judges of the Supreme Court of Pakistan announced the annulment of the Pakistani President's decision to dissolve Parliament, calling for a parliamentary meeting to vote on the motion of no confidence in the Prime Minister.

The day after the ouster of Imran Khan, Pakistan's parliament elected Shahbaz Sharif as prime minister, after MPs of Khan's Insaf party submitted a mass resignation before voting began.

Thus, Shahbaz Sharif, the younger brother of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, will become the 23rd Prime Minister in Pakistan's history, and he will form a new government that can remain in power until August 2023, when the next general elections are held.

These accelerating realities highlight the rapid transformation of Pakistani politics.

The Pakistani parliament consists of 342 members. The ruling coalition, consisting of Prime Minister Imran Khan's party (Pakistan Insaf Movement-PTI) and its official allies, formed the majority in Parliament with 178 seats, while all opposition parties took 162 seats, but the ruling coalition faced many tensions It lost him the majority needed to survive, and eventually brought down the government.

Shahbaz Sharif

Military and Economy

The overthrow of the government is not unusual in Pakistan;

As no prime minister in the country’s history has completed the term of his five-year government for a variety of reasons, which have been linked on many occasions to internal political conflict, whether between army leaders and civilian governments, or between competing political forces, and the overthrow of Imran Khan’s government comes as a result of internal domestic political and economic developments, But it also represents an important event when considering the geopolitical factors that may have contributed to its realization, or that may result from it.

Internally, the Pakistani army enjoys tremendous political influence. Since its independence, Pakistan has gone through three successful military coups. Even during the periods of elected governments, the army plays a key role, in addition to the expansion of its influence in economic activities, foreign and security policy, and despite the positive relations between the Pakistani army and Imran. Khan since the rise of his political star, but there have been recent developments that have raised doubts about the continued support of the army for him;

Due to some of Khan’s foreign tendencies and their cooling of his government’s relations with Washington, in addition to the crisis that erupted between the two parties following the army’s appointment of a new head of the Pakistani intelligence in late 2021, and whether these developments reflect real tension between Imran and the army or not, it is certain that the withdrawal of confidence From his government it could not have been passed without the army remaining minimally neutral.

Economic factors had a role in these transformations as well.

Economic crises in Pakistan prompted the opposition to take a step of no confidence in Prime Minister Imran Khan, accusing him of mismanaging the economy since he came to power in 2018. While Pakistan suffers from complex and chronic economic conditions for which the Imran Khan government is not alone responsible, the recent intensification of economic pressures The government's position has weakened, with the Pakistani rupee losing 30% of its value since 2018, and inflation rates last March reaching 13%.

Islamabad also lost a large part of its foreign exchange reserves, due to the high oil import expenditures - due to the Ukraine war - as foreign exchange reserves amounted to 12 billion dollars, a figure that is only enough to cover two months of the total imports of Pakistan, and while the International Monetary Fund resumed its support for Pakistan, After it was stopped due to the failure of the government of Imran Khan to meet the conditions of the fund in the past, the IMF program is again subject to suspension, due to the package of decisions taken by Khan to mitigate the effects of the economic crisis and reduce the high cost of living, and the opposition accuses the former prime minister of causing the elimination of reserves Foreign exchange, and Pakistan's threat to lose the ability to pay its debts, as a result of his policy with the IMF, which it describes as a "floundering approach", in addition to his appointment of four finance ministers since he came to power.

on the other hand;

Khan's position, which tends to ignore parliament, and his constant statements about Pakistan's need for a presidential system, represented a threat to the elite Pakistani parties that derive their political and economic influence from being in a parliament with wide powers, which may explain the unification of the two former ruling parties "Pakistan Muslim League - Jinnah" Nawaz Sharif (PML-N) and the Pakistan People's Party (PPP), within an opposition front against Khan's continuation, despite the long historical conflict between them, and this call may have caused tension within the ruling coalition itself.

away from Washington

Externally, Pakistan's standing in US foreign policy has declined in the past decade, as Washington's attention has shifted from countering terrorism to countering the rise of China.

Washington has become more inclined to view its relations with Pakistan within a broader framework that takes into account the growing US interests with India.

This decline is evident in the sharp collapse of foreign aid that Islamabad receives from Washington;

While in 2010 it amounted to nearly 4 and a half billion dollars;

In 2020, it did not exceed the $70 million limit. Contrary to previous efforts by Washington to balance its relationship with Islamabad and its relationship with India, Pakistan's main adversary;

Washington has recently tended to prefer its relationship with India, as America established the Quad Alliance (QUAD) with India, Japan and Australia, which is based on cooperation in the security, economic and technological fields in the context of the US-China conflict.

On the other hand, Pakistani relations with China have developed, as Pakistan has expanded its economic relations with China and continued its intensive borrowing policy. In the past few years, Beijing has provided about $11 billion to Pakistan in the form of commercial loans and initiatives to support foreign exchange reserves.

However, all of the above does not reflect the end of US influence in Pakistan, nor does it reflect the depth of Pakistani-US relations at the level of army and intelligence leaders.

From the beginning, Khan ascended to the presidency of the government adopting a more independent approach, and although Pakistan's relationship with Turkey began to take on closer dimensions before his government, since his rise to power in 2018, he has emerged as a partner of Turkish President Erdogan in the quest to build a more independent Islamic bloc, This has strained his relations not only with the United States, but also with Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

Finally, Imran Khan sought for Pakistan to stand neutral towards the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and refused to criticize Russian President Putin, and even made a predetermined visit to Moscow hours after the start of the war, despite the advice of the army and the Foreign Ministry to postpone it, which angered Washington, Especially with Pakistan abstaining from voting on the UN General Assembly resolution condemning Russia.

These tense relations between Khan and Washington appeared after his return from Moscow;

Where he announced the continuation of buying wheat and oil from Russia, he responded to a letter sent by the heads of 22 diplomatic missions in Islamabad urging him to condemn the Russian invasion of Ukraine, saying that they believe that Pakistan is a "slave" of them, as he accused Washington of supporting the opposition and seeking to overthrow it.

These moves were interpreted as siding with the Sino-Russian axis rather than as a neutral approach, so the army commander, Qamar Javed, sought to address the situation, stressing that his country has “an excellent history and strategic relationship with America,” as it enjoys a “close strategic relationship with China,” and most importantly. that;

He criticized Russia's invasion of Ukraine and called for it to be stopped, calling it a "great tragedy".

foggy future

Whether it was for internal reasons or external pressures, or both, Imran Khan eventually fell, and Parliament elected a new prime minister.

But this does not mean that Pakistan has crossed the bottleneck, because of the great differences between the parliament parties, early elections remain a possibility, and it is likely that the state of political instability will lead to more damage to the economy and perhaps to social unrest and protests, and the prospects for the intervention of the Pakistani army to take over the reins. Frankly, it would not be excluded.

On the external front, Pakistan will be more eager to de-escalate tensions with the Biden administration, as the military leaders will continue to be keen on relations with the United States.

Also, the pace of restoring historical relations with Saudi Arabia will be faster with Shahbaz Sharif assuming the presidency of the government due to his historical relationship with Riyadh.

While the course of Turkish-Pakistani relations is not expected to face challenges, as it is more strategic than the relationship with the Khan government, and easing tensions between Turkey and both the UAE and Saudi Arabia will free Islamabad from the pressures of dealing with two competing camps.

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This article was published in association with Asbab.

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