It is in Mayotte, more than 8,000 kilometers from its traditional strongholds in the north of France – 39.27% ​​and 38.68% of the votes in Aisne and Pas-de-Calais – that Marine Le Pen achieved his best score in the first round, far ahead of Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Emmanuel Macron.

She won 42.89% of the vote, or 14,958 Mayotte votes, where the Insoumis won 23.96% (8,398 votes) and the outgoing president 16.94% (5,936 votes).

For her third presidential campaign, the candidate of the National Rally is thus experiencing very strong growth in Mayotte, where she started from a very low base in 2012, with a modest score of 2.77% (996 votes).

In 2017, she had already progressed in the first round with 27.19%, behind François Fillon (32.62%), but had been beaten by Emmanuel Macron in the second round with 42.89% of the vote (14,374 votes).

Five years later, she is in the lead in the first round, and by far, with already more votes than in the second round of 2017. Emmanuel Macron, he lost 428 votes compared to the first round of 2017.

The "sensitive chord" of insecurity and illegal immigration

Thani Mohamed-Soihili, senator from Mayotte of the Rally of Democrats, Progressives and Independents (RDPI, previously LREM), is "unfortunately not very surprised" by a result which "is a continuation of the European elections" of 2019, where the RN had gleaned 46.12% of the vote.

For the parliamentarian, Marine Le Pen "blows on the embers with her speech on immigration and insecurity" in Mayotte.

"This easy, populist discourse appeals locally. This explains this score", he explains to France 24.

Insecurity and illegal immigration, favorite themes of the RN, touch the "sensitive chord" of many Mahorais, believes Thani Mohamed-Soihili.

A feeling corroborated by figures from INSEE and by the local media which echo the problems encountered in the archipelago.

In its report "Living environment and security in Mayotte" of November 2021, INSEE describes "exceptional delinquency".

Over the period 2018-2019, in each area – burglaries, thefts, physical or sexual violence… – Mahoran crime clearly exceeds the figures for mainland France.

"The inhabitants of Mayotte are personally three times more victims of thefts with or without violence", indicates INSEE, and the feeling of insecurity "far exceeds all the standards of the metropolis or other Drom (Departments and regions of Overseas)".

Indeed, 48% of Mahorais feel insecure at home (52% in their neighborhood), five to six times more than in France.

All of these numbers are increasing year after year.

Clandestine immigration also worries the population: the boats coming from the Comoros flock every day and exasperate the Mahorais, who see in it the source of many evils.

In its February 2019 report, INSEE indicated that between "significant immigration from the Comoros" and the departure of "natives of Mayotte abroad", 48% of the department's population was foreign in 2017, a figure up 8% from 2012.

Blessed bread for Marine Le Pen, who discussed these subjects at length during her last visit to the archipelago, in December 2021. “Mayotte is almost the laboratory of horror. (…) It is our future if nothing is done”, she declared in front of voters already conquered.

🇾🇹 I'm not afraid to make the link between insecurity and immigration: in #Mayotte even more than elsewhere, crime and delinquency are first linked to the SUBMERSION of illegal immigration!

pic.twitter.com/7D72QgwjDR

– Marine Le Pen (@MLP_officiel) December 18, 2021

Mobilize abstainers

Support of the outgoing president, Senator Thani Mohamed-Soihili also evokes "very hard times in recent years", but approaches the subject from a very different angle: "There is a part of injustice because it is the result of several years of ineffective actions. If previous governments had dealt with these scourges as Emmanuel Macron did, we would not be where we are today."

He cites as an example the reduction in the share of the population living below the poverty line, from 84% to 77%, during the last five years.

"The Mahorais have a feeling of abandonment. The result is in line with what is happening. (…) It was important to have a candidate who took into account our fears, our difficulties. Marine Le Pen is the one who gave us convinced", he explained at the microphone of Mayotte La 1ère, on the evening of the first round.

"Emmanuel Macron has shown limits in relation to what we need," added Daniel Zaïdani.

While Marine Le Pen spent three days in Mayotte at the end of 2021, Emmanuel Macron contented himself with a video and a letter to the Mahorais and Overseas, on March 17.

For the President of the Republic, it is a delicate end to his five-year term in Mayotte, land where he had committed one of his first communication mistakes after his election.

In June 2017, visiting the department, Emmanuel Macron joked about the kwassa-kwassa, fast fishing boats also used by illegal immigrants.

"The kwassa-kwassa fishes little, it brings from the Comorian, it's different", he had launched, creating controversy. 

On April 24, for the second round, Senator Mohamed-Soihili hopes for a rebound in favor of the President of the Republic and bets for that on the abstainers: "There is a work of explanation and ground to be done. We we did in the first round, not enough. We have to continue it and see where there were the most abstentions. It's a long-term job."

And there is plenty to do: 59.69% of the population of voting age abstained in the first round, the highest rate ever recorded for a presidential election in Mayotte, exceeding 58.78% in 2002.

Behind Marine Le Pen, the invisible RN in Mayotte 

Seen from the metropolis, the plebiscite of the RN arouses incomprehension for those who do not know the problems of Mayotte.

On social networks, mocking or angry reactions flourished in front of Marine Le Pen's score.

“It is an anomaly that a black population, more than 90% Muslim, votes for an Islamophobe, a person from a party whose members regularly hold speeches against blacks, Arabs, Muslims…”, tackle Thani Mohamed-Soihili.

Rather than an "anomaly", Daniel Zaïdani sees it as "clairvoyance": "Unless you say that the Mahorais are morons who don't understand anything about politics... The Mahorais are clairvoyant", he explained on the plateau of Mayotte The 1st, April 12.

But if delinquency and illegal immigration carried Marine Le Pen during the European elections and again in the first round of the presidential election of 2022, the National Rally is struggling to find a place in the local polls.

The far-right party was almost non-existent in the 2020 municipal elections, doing little better than in the 2017 legislative elections, where it only won 3.08% of the vote.

And even the website of the Mahoran federation of the RN refers to an abandoned address, a sign of a cruel lack of organization.

This is the paradox of Mayotte, where the National Rally leaves the local elections to the opposition, while its boss seduces the Mahorais and prances in other larger elections.

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