Impact of "Wood Shock" from Russia-I can't buy a house anymore!

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~ April 15, 18:21

"No way, it's so expensive ..."

A couple in their thirties who were considering buying their own home tweeted.

Military invasion of Ukraine by Russia, one of the world's leading forest powers.

There is concern that the prices of timber, which is indispensable for housing, will rise further, and the “dream home” is becoming hard to reach.

"Wood shock" from Russia that hits the Japanese housing market.

I investigated the actual situation.

(Reporter, Ministry of Economic Affairs, Daisuke Nogami, Akira Ota / Saturday Watch 9 Yukio Nagano)

"Because of President Putin ..."

After the military invasion by Russia, such posts are being posted on SNS one after another.

"I was desperate to build a house ..."

"Russia is causing the price of timber to rise because of Putin."

"Since Corona, the price of housing has been rising steadily, including the war ..."・ "

It was said that it would calm down after the Tokyo Olympics, but it wouldn't calm down at all."

People who were trying to build their own homes were mourning the further rise in timber prices triggered by the invasion of Ukraine. ..

"Wood shock" again

Last year, there was a “wood shock” over housing, where the price of timber, which is essential for building a house, soared.

The rapid rise in demand for housing in the United States as a result of the recovery from the corona wreck led to a global shortage of timber.

Even in Japan, there is a shortage of timber and the price of domestic timber is rising.

The necessary timber could not be secured, which had a great impact on the construction of the house.

This is a graph showing changes in the prices of timber traded in Japan.

It can be seen that the price, which was in the 60,000 yen range in March last year, exceeded 130,000 yen in August and has remained high since then.

And now, what is worrisome is the "second wood shock" from Russia.

Russia is one of the world's leading forest powers, accounting for 21% of the world's total timber exports.

Economic sanctions against military invasions have made it difficult to import timber, which could spur price increases.

Wood is not available

How widespread is the impact actually?

We first headed to the construction site of a house in Yokohama.

This house has abundant plywood made from Russian larch as the base of the floor and walls.

It is said that this plywood is widely used in Japanese houses because of its high strength and high earthquake resistance.

President Osawa of Fuji Solar House

"I think 80% to 90% of Japanese wooden houses use plywood made from Russian larch. It is strong against earthquakes and is suitable for use as a bearing wall. I've been using this plywood for the last 20 years. "

However, it has become difficult to obtain plywood made from Russian wood since the military invasion began.

Concerned about the effects of economic sanctions, a number of companies are trying to secure the price as soon as possible, and even if they are available, the price has risen by nearly 80% compared to before the wood shock.

For this reason, it is said that there is no choice but to consider raising the selling price of homes.

President Osawa

"I have colleagues all over the country, but there really isn't anywhere in Japan to the extent that I can answer" Is there plywood? " For example, if you contracted before Corona, a good house was built with a total floor area of ​​27 tsubo and a budget of about 30 million yen, but now it is the same level as a house of about 38 million yen. I feel like I can't make it. "

Soaring prices are not limited to wood

The wave of rising prices that hits homes is not limited to timber.

The next place we visited was a housing equipment manufacturer in Setagaya Ward, Tokyo.

We manufacture and sell system kitchens that take advantage of the texture of stainless steel.

Nickel is the raw material for stainless steel, and Russia accounts for about 13% of the world's exports.

However, prices have soared due to concerns that supply from Russia will be disrupted due to the invasion of Ukraine, and according to an analysis by the OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development), prices have risen by 63% after the invasion.

It is said that the manufacturer has been notified by the supplier that the price of stainless steel will be increased by 10% from next month, and is forced to decide how much the price will be passed on to the product.

Stainless Kitchen NEW President Ueda

"I knew that the price was going up to some extent, but I was surprised that I was actually notified. Unfortunately, when the purchase price goes up this much, I wonder if the company will not be able to do without raising the selling price. "

Everything in the house goes up

In addition, many housing equipment rely on Russian raw materials.

For example, "palladium", which is a major producer in Russia, is used for semiconductors and affects the prices of LED lighting, water heaters and warm water washing toilets.

In addition, the situation in Ukraine has spurred soaring prices of various raw materials, and prices of everything necessary for housing, such as "sashes" that use aluminum and "foundations" that require cement, are rising.

In fact, several housing equipment manufacturers have already announced price increases for kitchens, toilets and unit baths.

The impact of the Ukrainian invasion is concentrated in the house

President Osawa, who works on housing in Yokohama.

While guiding us, he explained as follows.

President Osawa

"There is no thing that is noticeable to everyone who is interviewing, and the price has not risen. The price of concrete, iron, wood, equipment, etc. has risen, and every house such as sashes and glass The price of things related to is rising. There is a feeling that the corona, the Ukrainian shock, and all the influences are finally concentrating on the house. "

And I also revealed the painful chest.

President Osawa

"A mortgage is a budget that is set based on the life plan of each household, so if the budget increases significantly, it will be used in other parts of life. For example, a person with a budget of 60 million yen should have a dream of the last minute, so the situation has already occurred that he has to give up building a house due to the price increase. I can't do what I could do a while ago. It's not my fault, but it's very painful to be in a position to force it. "

Dream home What should I do?

A “dream home” that is hard to reach by the military invasion.

What do experts who are familiar with this situation and real estate market trends see?

Tokyo Kantei Senior Researcher Ide

"Housing prices have already remained high, but supply insecurity by Russia has been added by this military invasion, and the cost and building materials have not stopped, so developers and construction shops on the supply side The depreciation of the yen is also catching up, and the price hike is accelerating in double and triple. ”

“ Now the market is risky. So if you don't have to buy a house right away and are looking a little further ahead, I think it's a good idea to take a closer look and see if the yen is depreciating or the cost is going down. "

However, there are some people who cannot wait any longer to buy a house due to marriage, child-rearing, work circumstances, etc.

Therefore, one of the points that Mr. Ide mentioned when choosing a house is a second-hand property.

Senior Researcher Ide

"The way is to aim for second-hand properties instead of new ones. As housing prices are rising, more and more people are giving up their homes thinking that it's time to sell, so look at second-hand properties. If you aim it, you may find something close to the desired conditions, you can also make it a specification close to new construction by remodeling etc. Also, it is reasonable to expand the conditions by removing some popular spots for location. You may find a property in

"The price is too high ..."

"The price is too high now. I don't want to buy that much considering that I have to take out a high-priced mortgage and the living expenses and the funds for old age will be reduced."

This is the purchase of an apartment in Tokyo. These are the words of a double-income couple in their 40s and 30s that I was considering.

The couple said they searched for a house in the same area about 10 years ago, but they learned that the market price was about 40% higher than that time and said that they would not buy it if the situation did not change.

Global inflation accelerated by Russia's military invasion.

If home prices rise further, fewer people will want to buy, and the previously strong housing market may shrink, affecting the Japanese economy as a whole.

How far will the impact of the "wood shock" from Russia spread?

I would like to continue to look carefully.

* This content will be broadcast on "Saturday Watch 9" from 20:55 on Saturday, April 16th.

Reporter of the Ministry of Economic Affairs

Daisuke Nogami Joined the Ministry of Economic Affairs

in 2010

After working at the Kanazawa Bureau

Economic Department Reporter

Akira Ota

Joined in 2012

After working at Kobe Bureau and Osaka Bureau, Economic Department

Saturday Watch 9

Economic Caster

Yukiyo Nagano

Joined in 2011

After working at Gifu Bureau and Kagoshima Bureau, Economic Department

from April Economic Caster