In his column in the New York Times, columnist Bert Stevens cited reports that Russia may be planning to use chemical weapons as part of its offensive in eastern Ukraine, and, according to other unconfirmed reports from local officials in Mariupol, may have already used chemical weapons. .

The writer added that the administration of US President Joe Biden has already formed a team of national security officials to study options if this occurs, and commented that it is time for these discussions to become more public.

The writer pointed out that the United States had this experience before and badly in August 2012 when former President Barack Obama publicly warned the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad against the use of chemical weapons.

"The red line for us is that we're starting to see a whole bunch of chemical weapons moving or being used, and that would change my calculations," he said at the time.

This did not change Obama's calculations, and the following year reports emerged of Assad beginning to use chemical weapons, culminating in a sarin gas attack in a Damascus suburb, and Obama hesitating for fear of a wider war.

The writer added that that scenario could not be repeated by the Biden team, and that what the US administration should do is:

  • Make only the promises you intend to keep. Syria's use of chemical weapons has represented a military, humanitarian, and international moral crisis.

    Obama's red line turned it into a crisis of American credibility, the consequences of which were far beyond any crisis that occurred in Syria.

  • The response of the United States should be different.

    Biden issued a veiled threat to Russian President Vladimir Putin when they met last June in Geneva, reminding him of the ransomware attack on the largest pipeline in the United States.

    "I looked at him and said, OK, how would you feel if ransomware took over your pipeline?" Biden says.

  • Maximum diplomatic pressure should be applied to Germany and other European countries to stop importing oil and gas from Russia, followed by the immediate removal of all Russian financial institutions from the SWIFT financial transaction system to make oil and gas payments nearly impossible.

The West may not be able to stop Putin from using chemical weapons, but it can still avoid the fatal mistake it made a decade ago with the Assad regime in Syria.

  • Russian supply chains must be torn apart, then bypassed to every sector of the Russian economy, by automatically preventing any company doing business in Russia from doing business in the United States, and possibly Europe.

  • Ukraine must be armed with offensive weapons.

    As former NATO commander Admiral James Stavridis said on Tuesday, "Assuming that these weapons will be delivered by air, it increases the bet that the Ukrainians will be given more tools to operate an effective no-fly zone, including MiG-29 fighters and possibly platforms and drones." anti-aircraft capability.

  • Belarus should be targeted.

    If the Biden administration fears direct confrontation with Russia, it should be less reticent in pursuing the Kremlin's client regime there. A one-day blackout in Minsk would be a useful warning shot for dictator Alexander Lukashenko before he even considers joining the Kremlin's war effort.

  • The worst should be expected, because Alexander Dvornikov, the new commander of Russian forces in Ukraine, and, according to a former US military commander, "has no remorse against any horrific activity...look at what he did in Aleppo."

  • Finally, a long war must be planned.

    These include ensuring that the West can provide Ukraine with the weapons it needs for at least a year, begin training Ukrainian forces in advanced Western combat systems, and prepare to decouple Russia from the global economy for 10 years.

The writer concluded his article that the West may not be able to prevent Putin from using chemical weapons in Ukraine, but it can still avoid the fatal mistake it made a decade ago with the Assad regime in Syria.