[Details] "Mr. Putin is afraid of democracy" Analysis by former US Ambassador to Russia

Why did President Putin embark on a military invasion of Ukraine?

The key to understanding his psychology is the relationship between Mr Putin and democracy.

Michael McFaul, a world-renowned American political scientist who has been studying Russia's democratization after the collapse of the Soviet Union for many years and was the ambassador to Russia during the Obama administration, was told by Putin's transition to the future Putin administration. I heard in detail about the possibility of collapse.

Has Mr Putin changed?

<< Mr. Michael McFaul >>

Putin was appointed as acting president by then President Yeltsin in 1999, but I don't think he had the same view of the world at that time.

His thinking gradually changed.

He now claims to be against the collapse of the Soviet Union, but for the decade after the collapse he worked for the people who led to the collapse.

At that time, we were Western-oriented and had an idea based on market principles, and we thought that we could cooperate with each other.

But in 2011, Putin, then Prime Minister, met with Biden, the Vice President of the United States, saying, "Russians are different from Westerners. They have different cultures and histories." , I came to emphasize the difference from the West.

Putin would have wanted to justify governing Russia in a more dictatorial way by claiming that Russians are different from Europeans.

It is a mistake that Putin became a dictator overnight because of his democratic orientation.

Over time he turned into a dictator.

And he was challenged by democracy the more he became dictatorial.

How has it changed?

What is the challenge from democracy?

It began in 2003 with the "Rose Revolution," in which civilian protests in Georgia forced the president, who had been the supreme leader immediately after the collapse of the Soviet Union, to resign.

Next, in 2004, the "Orange Revolution" was the birth of a pro-European government after a large-scale protest in Ukraine.

And the important phase was the democratization movement "Arab Spring" in 2011, when the dictatorial governments collapsed one after another in various parts of the Middle East, and the large-scale citizens ahead of the 2012 Russian presidential election. It is a protest activity.

Putin accused the United States of organizing protests and funding dissidents, but that's not the case.

We support democracy and democratization support groups and independent media, but it is a mistake that the CIA = Central Intelligence Agency has attempted to overthrow the government.

Mr Putin was deeply scared when there was a large-scale demonstration against his administration in Russia, not Egypt, Ukraine, Georgia or Tunisia.

And he became morbidly suspicious of democracy and its supporters.

And the final blow is the "Maidan Revolution" in 2014, when a large-scale civilian protest in Ukraine collapsed a Russian-oriented government.

Putin has accused him of "taking power by a neo-Nazi with US support."

What do you think of Ukraine?

Putin does not think Russia and Ukraine are different countries.

I am trying to explain that it was a "one country" by referring to its long history.

I believe this is part of Putin's imperialist ambition to create a unified Slavic nation.

What was the background to the military invasion?

In the background, there was a problem with Mr Putin's idea that Russia and Ukraine are "one country."

Ukraine is a democracy and Russia is a dictatorship.

If Ukraine shares the same culture and history as Russia but remains democratic, it poses a direct threat to the dictatorship of Russia, which it leads.

And the more democratic Ukraine is, the greater the disconnection with Russia.

That is why he tried to use force to capture Ukraine and prevent democracy.

How will Mr Putin come out in the future?

Mr Putin initially said that Ukraine's "denazification" and "denazification", that is, the overthrow of the government, is aimed at.

However, he underestimated Ukraine's will and military power and overestimated Russia's military power.

It's possible that he hasn't given up on the control of the capital, Kyiv, but I don't think it's possible.

For this reason, I think we are adjusting the final phase.

And now, I think Putin's final phase is the control of the entire southern region.

That is why he is intensifying his offensive against Mariupol.

And I think we are planning to integrate this southern part with the Crimea and the Donbus region, start negotiations on the new border of Ukraine, and divide Ukraine forever.

However, it is a very difficult negotiation and I do not know if President Zelensky will accept it.

What about the Putin administration?

It may be Putinism, the "beginning of the end" of Mr Putin's political system.

It is the same as the former Soviet General Secretary Leonid Brezhnev forcibly failed after the establishment of Marxist-Leninist governments in Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia in the 1970s.

Angola, Mozambique and Nicaragua also joined the former Soviet camp, and Brezhnev decided to invade Afghanistan.

And it unintentionally became the Soviet "beginning of the end."

However, it cannot be denied that those who support Putinism may strengthen their position.

After Putin retires from power, I think it's possible that Putin's entourage and the Russian people would support someone like Putin.