China News Service, Beijing, April 13th, Question: The outcome of the general election is unpredictable, but France has definitely turned to the right?
Reporter Zhang Aolin
On April 24, the current French President Emmanuel Macron and the far-right party "National League" candidate Marine Le Pen will have a decisive battle in the second round of voting in the general election.
On April 10, local time, an electronic screen in Paris, France, showed the preliminary results of the first round of the 2022 French presidential election.
In the first round of voting, Macron won only about 5% more than Le Pen, and neither received more than half of the votes.
The rise of far-right forces has made Macron's road to re-election full of variables.
Cui Hongjian, director of the European Institute of the China Institute of International Studies, said in an exclusive interview that in today's French political arena, it is more and more difficult to gain a foothold in middle politics, and France as a whole is turning to the right.
Regardless of who gets elected, French and European politics in general are shifting to the right, depending on who turns faster and more extreme.
The problems faced by European countries are not one country's problems. The growth of the far-right has not only European soil, but also global soil.
Excerpts from the interview are as follows:
Chinanews.com: After five years, Macron and Le Pen once again stood in the "final circle" of the general election. During this period, what changes have taken place in the political situation in France, and how has it affected the election?
Cui Hongjian:
At present, there is a situation of "fragmentation" of political parties in France. The original left and right wings are almost out of tune, and the party structure and political adjustment have not yet been in place. It is becoming more and more difficult to gain a foothold in middle politics. getting stronger.
On April 10, local time, on the streets of France, pedestrians walked past the billboards of candidates for the 2022 French presidential election.
In addition, voter vulnerability to party loyalty is on the rise, with almost a third of undecided voters, and there will be great uncertainty about the composition of party splits.
Chinanews.com reporter: In the first round of voting, Macron and Le Pen failed to get more than half of the votes, and the difference between the votes was not big. Who is more likely to win in the upcoming second round of voting?
Cui Hongjian:
With the rise of external threats brought about by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, choosing a Macron with ruling experience at this time will be safer for the French people than Le Pen. This kind of psychology will play a leading role in the second round of voting. .
On April 10, local time, French President Emmanuel Macron delivered a speech.
After the first round of voting, except for Zemour (the candidate of the far-right party to "recover lost ground") who publicly supported Le Pen, everyone supported Macron, but if one more faction supported Le Pen, the challenge to Macron would be great. .
In addition, voter loyalty in France is declining. The two factors are superimposed. If there are unexpected events in the next two weeks, or major changes in France-related issues, people will also temporarily change their minds.
If Le Pen can make good use of these issues, although the first round is temporarily behind, there is also the possibility of a comeback.
Chinanews.com reporter: In addition to domestic economic and social factors, will the external environment influence the direction of this round of French elections?
Cui Hongjian:
At present, support for Ukraine has become the mainstream public opinion in most European countries, but compared with the three Baltic countries and even Germany, the French people are more concerned about their own economic problems.
Moreover, France's energy dependence on Russia is relatively low, and it is not greatly affected by the situation in Russia and Ukraine.
On February 28, local time, French President Emmanuel Macron and European Commission President von der Leyen held talks on the situation in Ukraine at the Elysee Palace in Paris.
Photo by China News Agency reporter Li Yang
With less than two weeks left, Macron needs to make up for shortcomings - he previously admitted that due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, he invested too little in the first round of the election.
But now it seems that France has not played a big role in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. This is an embarrassing situation and one of the reasons why Le Pen criticized him.
For Macron, he needs to deal with the Russian-Ukrainian conflict externally and domestic dissatisfaction. How to persuade voters who question his domestic and foreign policies before the second round of elections is his most urgent task.
Chinanews.com reporter: What is Macron's biggest challenge at this stage?
Cui Hongjian:
After World War II, France has been relying on soft power such as the Enlightenment and humanism to maintain its status as a great power. After Macron came to power, while continuing this policy, he was also seeking to strengthen its own hard power.
But for France now, people's livelihood has undoubtedly become one of the main challenges.
For example, Le Pen advocates tax reduction for new energy, because Macron wants to transform energy after he came to power. If he has no money, he can only tax traditional energy to subsidize new energy. It is reasonable to say that this is good for French energy and economic security. But in the short term, the public will have to pay the price.
Le Pen's formulation seems to be beneficial to the common people in the short term, but not conducive to French reform in the long run.
Therefore, such policy traps will magnify the impact on people's livelihood and even lead to the stagnation of reform.
Data map: Marine Le Pen, candidate of the French far-right party "National League".
Chinanews.com: If Le Pen wins the second round of voting, will there be major changes in France's domestic and foreign policies? Will she live up to her campaign claims, such as pushing France out of the European Union and NATO?
Cui Hongjian:
I think Le Pen said this mainly to attract voters, because there is a market in France to oppose NATO or the EU, but she may not really do it after taking office.
In recent years, Le Pen has also been adjusting its policies, and the "National League" is also changing from a pure opposition party to a role that prepares for power.
For example, on the refugee issue, Le Pen, known for his anti-immigration status, recently advocated taking the initiative to accept Ukrainian refugees.
Chinanews.com: As for other European countries and even the United States across the Atlantic, how do they view the French election?
Cui Hongjian:
There is a natural conflict between the Biden administration and the far-right. Trump used to have close contacts with European far-right politicians such as Le Pen. To a certain extent, they all belong to the anti-establishment faction in the Western political camp (Note: against Western liberalism) elite and other camps).
Opposing Le Pen is undoubtedly the basic attitude of the US Democratic government.
If Macron is re-elected, I think it will be good news for European countries - it means stability.
The hardest thing for Europe to accept now is that while external instability is present, there are also internal divisions.
Data map: US President Biden.
Chinanews.com reporter: Some US media quoted senior officials of the Biden administration as saying that the US is not only worried about Russia's interference in the French election, but also fears that if "Putin supporter" Le Pen is elected, it will shake the Western anti-Russian alliance, which will give Russia the victory over Russia and Ukraine. The "biggest victory" since the conflict, what is the intention of the US to release this news at this time?
Cui Hongjian:
The United States now hopes to express its position on French politics through a simple connection and division.
If the far-right and Putin are more connected, on the one hand, it can support mainstream politics in Europe, and it can further discredit Putin; on the other hand, under the current situation, the internal affairs of Western allies will not change, which is in line with the United States. beneficial.
Chinanews.com: In recent years, far-right political parties in European countries have become more and more present. What kind of far-reaching impact will this have on European politics in the future?
Cui Hongjian:
European countries are more and more affected by internal and external impacts, the people's desire for change and their dissatisfaction with mainstream politics have become stronger, and mainstream politics cannot come up with better solutions.
Therefore, some solutions with extreme colors and simple logic are more and more popular among the people. This is the essential public opinion and social foundation for the continuous development and growth of far-right political parties.
Data map: On April 4, 2021, the streets of Paris, France, under the new crown epidemic.
Photo by China News Agency reporter Li Yang
French and European politics in general are turning to the right to see who is turning faster and more extreme.
The problems faced by European countries are not one country's problems. National, regional and global problems are interconnected. The growth of the far-right has not only European soil, but also global soil.
Even if Macron remains in power, he, who is known for his reforms, will have to accept some anti-globalization proposals at that time, and some previous reform proposals with a left-wing color will be more hindered.
(Finish)