Coinciding with the outbreak of war in Ukraine
Tensions escalate between Russia and Japan over the Kuril Islands
The Japanese Blue Book is issued annually by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and includes the government's vision of the world.
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Japan adheres to the Sakhalin gas project with Russia.
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The Japanese foreign minister publishes the Diplomatic Blue Book annually, a guide to the government's worldview.
Japan's non-profit news agency, Kyodo News, has released reports that the 2022 Blue Book will contain strong words against Russia.
This book will be released to the public before the end of April, but the Kyodo News Agency leaked one of the texts, before Prime Minister Fumio Kishida checked it.
There are two very big changes in this text. The first is that the Russians control some islands in the north of Hokkaido as an “illegal occupation.” The last time the Blue Book used this phrase against Russia was in 2003.
After that, the book indicated that Japan “waivered its right to the Kuril Islands” in a peace treaty signed in 1951 in San Francisco (Chapter II, Paragraph II-C), and these islands were at that time part of the Soviet Union.
Despite this, the 2003 Blue Book stated, "For the four northern islands, the illegal occupation of the Soviet Union and then Russia continues today."
Japan calls the northern islands the following names: Utorofu, Habomai, Kunashiri, and Shikotan, while Russia calls them the South Kuril Islands, Iturup, Khabomai, Kunashiri, and Shikotan.
Second, the 2006 Blue Book described the northern islands as "Japanese in nature", and the phrase had not been used since then until it was repeated in 2022 in a draft of the Blue Book.
Phrases such as “illegal occupation” and “inherently Japanese” indicate that tension between Japan and Russia will escalate.
Japanese economic sanctions against Russia:
On the twenty-fourth of February, when the Russian forces entered Ukraine, the Japanese Foreign Minister, Hayashi Yoshimasa, issued a statement condemning the Russian action, and demanded the return of the Russian forces to their country.
The next day, Japan, in line with the wealthy G7 nations, announced punitive measures against Russia.
It included freezing the assets of three Russian banks in Japan, and excluding seven Russian banks from the SWIFT financial exchange system.
In addition, Japan's finance minister said he would ban major Japanese banks from doing business with Russian banks.
As a result, three of these banks lost about $4.69 billion, or 20% of their expected profits.
As a result, Russia retaliated by placing Japan on the list of "unfriendly countries" whose number of diplomats inside Russia should be reduced, and that its citizens would not easily obtain a visa to enter Russia.
Japan's dependence on energy
On March 31, while Tokyo pledged to impose sanctions on Russia's banks, Japanese Prime Minister Kishida told the Japanese parliament that his government would continue to be involved in Russia's Sakhalin 2 gas and oil project.
Kishida said that this project will provide Japan with cheap liquefied natural gas for a long time, adding, "We will not withdraw from this project."
Japan owns a large part of the development plan for the Sakhalin oil and gas project.
The Sakhalin 2 natural gas project is about 45 kilometers off the coast of Japan, so most of its gas is transported to Japan.
Kishida's reluctance to abandon energy imports from Russia needs a clear explanation, as Japan imports most of its energy from countries other than Russia.
In 2019, it imported 88% of its energy, mostly from fossil fuels.
It comes from several countries such as the Arab Gulf states and Australia, and it gets a small amount from Russia.
Because of the proximity of Russian fuel, and cheap gas prices, the energy costs that Japan buys from Russia are lower than other countries.
If Japan stops importing gas from Sakhalin 2, it will lose between 15 and 25 billion dollars.
This is the reason why Kishida refuses to stop importing energy from Russia.
Tension in the Atsuke Sea
In 1956 the Soviet Union and Japan signed a declaration to settle important issues between the two countries.
The Soviet Union agreed to provide two of the four islands (Habomai and Shekton), after a treaty was signed between the two countries.
But no such treaty has yet been signed.
The former Japanese prime minister, Shinzo Abe, met with Russian President Vladimir Putin about 20 times, but they were unable to achieve any breakthrough.
These small islands in the Atsok Sea allow Russia to extend its territorial waters into the Pacific Ocean.
Therefore, the loss of these islands is not only related to preserving prestige, but rather related to Russia's commercial ambitions in the northern waters.
Accordingly, these islands are not more likely to push the two countries into any kind of conflict, than the sanctions that Japan has imposed on Russian banks.
But we are going through dangerous and difficult times, and it is impossible to predict exactly what will happen next.
And the occurrence of any clash by chance between Japan and Russia would lead to the operation of Article V of the 1960 agreement that Japan signed with the Soviet Union.
And if that really happened, it would be a disaster.
• While Tokyo pledged to impose sanctions on Russia's banks, Japanese Prime Minister Kishida told the Japanese parliament that his government will continue to work involved in the Russian Sakhalin 2 gas and oil project. Kishida said that this project will provide Japan with cheap liquefied natural gas for a long time, adding, "We will not withdraw from this project."
• Because of the proximity of Russian fuel, and cheap gas prices, the energy costs that Japan buys from Russia are lower than other countries. If Japan stops importing gas from Sakhalin 2, it will lose between 15 and 25 billion dollars.
• Small islands in the Atsok Sea allow Russia to expand its territorial waters towards the Pacific Ocean. Therefore, the loss of these islands is not just about preserving prestige, but about Russia's commercial ambitions in the northern waters.
* Vijay Prashad - Indian writer and journalist
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