Macron or Le Pen, who has the most voice reserves?

• On Sunday April 24, Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen will face each other for a second round that looks like deja vu.

• And yet, the gap has never been so small between the two, according to polling institutes.

• Marine Le Pen has more voice reserves than Emmanuel Macron, even though most of the other presidential candidates have called for a blockade against the far right.

Do we take the same ones and redo the match?

In 2022 as in 2017, France will have to decide between Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen in the presidential election.

Except that this time, the cards are reshuffled.

All the surveys give Macron the winner, but with a very disparate and small gap, ranging from 54% of the votes for Odoxa to 51% for Ifop.

“The first factor of uncertainty is that compared to 2017, participation has not jumped in the very last days, underlined Brice Teinturier, of Ipsos, on France Info on Monday.

The second factor is that the curves are getting tighter.

A fortnight ago, there was nearly 10 points difference.

Today, we are at 3.5, but everything can still change.

With a question in the background: who, the outgoing president or his opponent, has the most voice reserves?

Finally, on April 24, the three areas of the country will be on vacation.

Will the French vote?

Will they make a power of attorney?

Will Macron's voters, who traditionally have more means to go on vacation, be more tempted to skip this second round?

Find our live on this day after the election

"Nothing is played"

Many experts share a worrying observation for Emmanuel Macron: Marine Le Pen holds much more than him.

Because for the first time, there were three candidates on the far right: Eric Zemmour (7.07% of the vote), Nicolas Dupont Aignan (2.06%) and Marine Le Pen (23.15%).

If we add them together, these forces represent a total of 33.1% of the vote cast.

Mathieu Gallard, director of studies at the polling institute Ipsos, warns this Monday on France Info: "nothing is decided", knowing that "85% of Eric Zemmour's voters say they will vote for her" .

If the calls to slip a Macron bulletin were legion on Sunday evening, not sure that the outgoing president can breathe.

From his speech on the evening of the first round, he called for a "national union".

Anne Hidalgo certainly invites her voters to “vote against the far right of Marine Le Pen, using the Emmanuel Macron ballot.

But only 1.7% of French people voted for her.

Same unequivocal call from Yannick Jadot… and same limit.

On the far left, Fabien Roussel (who won 2.3% of the vote) is on the same line: "I call for the far right to be beaten, to defeat it by using the only ballot that will be at our disposal”.

On the other hand, Valérie Pécresse explained that she will vote "in conscience Emmanuel Macron to prevent the coming to power of Marine Le Pen and the chaos that would result from it".

But she did not give voting instructions.

And Christian Jacob, the president of LR, indicated on Monday that "no voice can be cast on Marine Le Pen", without saying more.

Another problem for Macron: Eric Ciotti disassociated himself from candidate LR, ensuring that his vote would not go to the outgoing president.

Eyes on LFI

For Emmanuel Macron, the duel therefore promises to be much more perilous than in 2017. “He has already used his voice reserves, analyzes Luc Rouban, political scientist at Cevipof.

He totally vampirized the electorate of Valérie Pécresse, he has very few votes that will come from the left, very low in the first round.

»

"Even if the probability of Macron's success is greater, nothing is certain," confirms Luc Rouban, also a researcher at the National Center for Scientific Research (CNRS).

Two variables will play a crucial role.

On the one hand the ability to mobilize abstainers, 27% of French people.

Their social profile is close to RN voters: modest, distrustful of institutions… The second question is obviously the vote of Mélenchon voters.

With nearly 22% of the votes cast, LFI is attracting all eyes.

Sunday evening, at his HQ, Jean-Luc Mélenchon pirouetted, repeating at will "you must not give a voice to Marine Le Pen", without specifically quoting the Macron bulletin.

According to a second round projection carried out by Ipsos-Sopra Steria for France TV, Radio France, France 24, RFI, Public Sénat, LCP and

, 34% of Jean-Luc Mélenchon's voters would refer to Emmanuel Macron, 30% to Le Pen… and 36% would abstain.

Another interesting projection, that of the Elabe research firm, which reveals that 34% of Jean-Luc Mélenchon's voters would lean for Le Pen… and 27% of Valérie Pécresse's voters.

The LFI vote is not just a vote of deep support for the JLM project... I see that some tend to forget this.

The chips are not down pic.twitter.com/CX0ylqA7w8

— Virginie Debuisson (@VirgoWhallala) April 11, 2022

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“The potential vote transfers are a projection, you have to be careful, beware the political scientist.

But we are not on a few percentages that would refer to Le Pen.

Especially since part of Mélenchon's electorate can adopt a systematic anti-Macronian position, and a victory for Le Pen, with a clear left/right divide, could favor a new union of the left.

It's like Bismarck declaring war on France to reunite Germany in 1870….

But this is a dangerous calculation.

»

What strategy for this second round?

To go and convince the abstainers, the hesitant, the disappointed, the two rivals will have to play a precise score.

Trips to Frontist land for Macron from this Monday, debate on April 20 that Marine Le Pen cannot afford to miss as in 2017…

The press caravan following Emmanuel Macron has arrived in Denain, the first stage of his visit to Hauts-de-France.

The elected officials are waiting for the candidate president in front of the town hall.

It's a socialist city, the mayor voted for Hidalgo yesterday.

pic.twitter.com/8YvXncyiWR

— Rachel Garrat-Valcarcel (@Ra_GarVal) April 11, 2022

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There is no doubt that the RN candidate will surf on an anti-Macron speech.

“She risks saying” if it is Macron, it will be social chaos with the demonstrations, a deficit of public services, a maintained social divide”, continues Luc Rouban.

While Macron plays the European card, highlighting the dangerous war in Ukraine, the impossibility of distancing ourselves from NATO and Europe.

There is therefore a dilemma of principle.

Is the priority the economic well-being of citizens, or France's place in the world?

Marine Le Pen did not hesitate to say that the sanctions linked to the war in Ukraine were going to deprive companies of outlets, to increase gas prices... It looks like the opposition of 1981,

with a Valéry Giscard d'Estaing who looked a lot internationally and a Mitterrand interested in French issues.

“With the same goal for the two candidates of 2022: to seduce a maximum of voters who did not support them in the first round.

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• Elections

• Presidential election 2022

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