Very listened to by the candidate of the RN, the pollster and political scientist Jérôme Sainte-Marie (PollingVox) hammers since 2019 his thesis of a "popular bloc" facing an "elite bloc".
In this first round of the presidential election, "there was a process of unification of the" CSP + "(higher socio-professional categories) around Emmanuel Macron: an alignment of executives and retirees", estimates-t- he, interviewed by AFP.
Five years ago, a large proportion of seniors voted for LR François Fillon.
This time, almost 40% of those "65 and over" opted for the outgoing president.
Worried about their pensions or the country's debt, retirees are a major electoral asset for the second round: they represent a third of the electorate and are those who turn out the most at the polls.
Opposite, Marine Le Pen first convinces "CSP- from the private sector", continues Jérôme Sainte-Marie, by associating purchasing power with his speech on the "national priority" and the fight against immigration.
"France from above and from below"
Between the two rounds, the far-right candidate will, according to him, have to consolidate her "populist nationalist" base by aggregating the voices of Eric Zemmour, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan and even Jean Lassalle.
But also "develop its social theme to encourage support or abstention among left-wing voters" and to mobilize popular categories or young people on the edge of the vote, analyzes Mr. Sainte-Marie.
First round: rural vote vs urban vote AFP
IFOP pollster Jérôme Fourquet also evokes a face-to-face between a macronist "France from above" and a marinist "France from below", even "if it's a little more nuanced than that" .
In the surveys, Emmanuel Macron obtains "18% among workers and employees, it's not nothing but it is 35% among managers. Marine Le Pen is 15% among managers and 35% among employees and workers “, he underlines on France Inter.
"We also find it on the level of diploma. The more the voters are qualified, the more the tendency to vote Emmanuel Macron was strong and vice versa" for Marine Le Pen, with voters with "more suffered professions" and "more exposed to unemployment" .
Geographically, the map shows a clear strengthening of Emmanuel Macron in the west of the country compared to 2017, for example in Loire-Atlantique, a former LR stronghold.
While Marine Le Pen is further consolidating its positions in its northern and northeast strongholds.
"Beautiful neighborhoods" and "seaside resorts"
An opposition is emerging between on the one hand the large cities, very favorable to Emmanuel Macron and the rebellious Jean-Luc Mélenchon, and the small towns.
The RN candidate finishes first in 20,036 municipalities against 11,861 for her rival LREM.
And "Emmanuel Macron is strengthening in all the traditional strongholds of the right, seaside resorts, Arcachon, La Baule, Royan, with very strong growth, beautiful neighborhoods like Neuilly or border areas" near Switzerland and Luxembourg , emphasizes Jérôme Fourquet.
The municipalities (un)favorable to Macron, Le Pen and Mélenchon AFP
In the largest cities, the RN candidate divides her score by two or three compared to her national average.
Rather than the logic of bloc against bloc, several specialists underline a "tripartition" of political life with three dominant candidates in the first round Emmanuel Macron (27.85%), Marine Le Pen (23.15%) and Jean-Luc Mélenchon (21.95%), crushing the rest.
The sociologist Erwan Lecoeur speaks on France info of a "central managerial pole" around Emmanuel Macron, of an "ecologist social pole of which Jean-Luc Mélenchon became the absolute, indisputable and undisputed leader on the evening of this first round " and a far-right pole with Marine Le Pen.
For political scientist Gaël Brustier, "tripartition" is the "keystone of the new French political world", while the old LR and PS parties are collapsing, he says on the Slate site.
"Macronism is an autonomous political field which reveals a decisive sociological process for our democracies: the relative empowerment of the elites", he believes.
© 2022 AFP