Analysis
French presidential election: what vote reserve for Emmanuel Macron?
Emmanuel Macron campaigning in Denain, in the north of France, on April 11, 2022, the day after the first round.
REUTERS - POOL
Text by: Géraud Bosman-Delzons Follow
9 mins
If Marine Le Pen, qualified for the second round, can already count on the significant electorate of Eric Zemmour, the reserve of votes is not so clear for Emmanuel Macron.
He remains the favorite, but nothing is certain yet and the Republican front against the far right will not be as automatic on April 24: the voters of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, solid referee in the final, do not hear, for many , slip the name Macron into their envelope.
Advertisement
Read more
Admittedly, the poster for the second round is a reissue of 2017: Emmanuel Macron against Marine Le Pen.
For the third time in the Fifth Republic, the far right reached the final of a presidential election.
For the second time, since 1981, it is a “return match”.
The comparison with the past stops there,
the evidence was obvious from Sunday evening
.
“
The context has completely changed because the pulverization of the French partisan system has increased during this election.
The first three candidates alone total almost three-quarters of the votes cast, symbol of a tripartition of the French political space
”, analysis on RFI Bruno Cautrès, of Cevipof.
The historic parties are thrown into limbo in the rankings: The Republicans (Valérie Pécresse, 4.7%) like the Socialists (Anne Hidalgo, 1.8%) will not even reimburse their campaign expenses.
A historic slap.
Only four points of difference separate Emmanuel Macron (27.8%) from Marine Le Pen (23.1%).
At the same time, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, third man as in 2017, also won votes compared to the previous ballot (19.5%): he reached around 22% and came close to qualifying – still hoped for by his camp. late at night while the counts in Île-de-France where he arrived in second position and in Marseille were not finished.
Five years ago, a small part of the votes on the left still went to the socialist candidate Benoît Hamon.
Its voters will therefore be the real arbiter of the final, notwithstanding the second “party” of this election: the abstainers, who leave a potential of 25.14%.
A far right in constant progression
The period of apothecary calculations on the carryover of votes therefore opens this Monday for two weeks.
In the camp of the dauphine, things are quite clear.
Marine Le Pen has a very full vote bag thanks to the 7% vote of her competitor Eric Zemmour, who came fourth.
The former
Le Figaro
journalist , through the radicalism of his campaign, contributed to the normalization enterprise of the boss of the National Rally, who from then on "
appeared as the candidate of appeased radicalism
", as described by Stewart Chau, responsible political and societal studies at the Viavoice polling institute.
Marine Le Pen, who has come a long way, therefore remains the leader of the extreme right in France and Eric Zemmour logically brings her her quota of votes.
"
More than 80% of Eric Zemmour's voters would be Marine Le Pen voters on April 24,
" says RFI Stewart Chau.
The boss of the National Rally can also count on the votes of Nicolas Dupont-Aignan (Debout la France, 2%).
“
Marine Le Pen has its stakes and its challenges to meet, but undoubtedly, it increases its score, it has a reserve of voice, it has a better situation than in 2017
”, summarizes Valérie Gas, head of the political service of RFI.
“
Never has Marine Le Pen come so close to winning the presidential election
,” observes Bruno Cautrès.
According to the first polls, Emmanuel Macron would win by a short margin, therefore including a margin of error: between 51% and 55% in his favor against 45 to 49% for his opponent.
In 2017, the French president arrived largely victorious in the second round with more than 66% of the votes, against 33.90%.
In the speeches of several vanquished, the republican front against the extreme right is the dominant instruction.
Anne Hidalgo, Valérie Pécresse, Yannick Jadot and Fabien Roussel clearly called for a vote for Emmanuel Macron, not to approve his candidacy but "
to block
".
Emmanuel Macron says he recorded it well: "
Some will do it to block the far right and it will not be worth support, I respect him
", he declared in his speech, Sunday evening April 10 at the Parc des exhibitions at the Porte de Versailles, in Paris.
Where will the voices of Mélenchon go?
"
Nothing is played
", "
nothing is done
", insisted Emmanuel Macron.
Is it the feverish background of his thoughts?
Or does he actually believe he is safe from defeat, counting on a Republican front that is more fragile than ever?
The fact is that he leaves this Monday on the ground while his campaign until then has been almost non-existent, a sign that the spirits are not necessarily serene in the camp of En Marche.
This morning, he is already in the Hauts-de-France, this popular North more sensitive to the sirens of the extremes.
In Denain, Caevin and Lens, the three cities visited on Monday by the LaREM candidate, the National Rally (41.6%, 40.7% and 39.7%) is ahead of La France insoumise (28.5%, 21.3 % and 22.6%).
“
I will campaign morning, noon and night
“, he promised Sunday evening.
"
For Emmanuel Macron, it's a new campaign that is launching, or even a campaign at all
", explains on RFI Stewart Chau.
His campaign never really took place, first because of a candidacy declared at the last moment and then because of the war in Ukraine.
However, the man still has a record to defend, including two crises, the Covid-19 and the "yellow vests" and today rising inflation.
He is no longer
homo novo
, this new man who appeared
ex nihilo
with a “
project
” that promised a rally.
"
It looks much tighter this time between Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen because Emmanuel Macron has served a first term.
He is no longer the same Emmanuel Macron in the eyes of the French.
It's the outgoing.
He had the opportunity to disappoint
, ”analyzes Bruno Cautrès on RFI.
Some of the left-wing voters who chose his name in 2017 may indeed have been disappointed with the former minister of Socialist President François Hollande.
The pension reform, considered anti-social and stopped dead by the outbreak of the pandemic, was the subject of massive protest in the streets.
However, it is still one of the flagship measures of the program of the outgoing president who intends to carry it out.
It is in any case not with her that he will seduce the Melenchonist electorate.
In the camp of La France insoumise, the call for a republican barrage took on an ambivalent form.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon has a good game of wanting to be very "
clear
" - "
we must not give a single voice to Mrs. Le Pen
", he hammered four times last night - he did not, however, not called to vote for Emmanuel Macron, hated by a large part of his electorate.
As it stands, an abstention or a white vote mathematically reinforces Marine Le Pen.
According to an Ipsos poll, among the French who voted for the Insoumis candidate in the first round of the 2022 presidential election, 34% would vote for Emmanuel Macron and 30% for Marine Le Pen.
The French president's pro-nuclear policy is also contested by an entire environmentalist fringe who voted for the Green candidate Yannick Jadot, and "climate inaction" is strongly criticized by a more urban electorate who travels to vote.
However, this should not be prohibitive for the Head of State, since if we refer to the Ipsos poll, 60% of Yannick Jadot's electorate should agree to renew him for a second five-year term.
Emmanuel Macron at the challenge of renewal
“
I want to reach out to anyone who wants to work for France.
I am ready to invent something new to bring together convictions and sensitivities
,” said Emmanuel Macron.
But he will have a lot to do to convince the 7.7 million voters for Jean-Luc Mélenchon.
For researcher Bruno Cautrès, it is “
a last-second catch-up that will not create a strong momentum vis-à-vis Emmanuel Macron.
There is a real question mark on the sincerity of this turn to the left that Emmanuel Macron would take like that
in extremis
.
»
On his right, the horizon is no clearer.
Firstly because the reserves of votes have already been partly sucked into this electoral base, believes Bruno Cautrès, in a mixture of useful voting and pragmatism in the face of the domination of Emmanuel Macron: "
Positions taken in this meaning of Christian Estrosi, the mayor of Nice, of Renaud Muselier, the president of the Paca region, of Nicolas Sarkozy, who did not support Valérie Pécresse and who will no doubt speak between the two rounds.
The voters anticipated in a way: perhaps it is better to board the taxi with Emmanuel Macron, even if it means not being the driver and waiting for 2027 with a good candidacy.
»
Then, because all the voices of the right, torn, are not reserved for him.
At Les Républicains, opinions diverge from those of their own candidate and refuse to vote Macron.
“
The voting instructions are reminiscent of the old world that the French have rejected.
I would take good care of it.
For five years, we fought the policy of Emmanuel Macron, it is out of consistency that I will not vote for him.
I will vote neither for Emmanuel Macron nor for Marine Le Pen
", announces on RFI Guilhem Carayon, spokesperson for Valérie Pécresse and president of the Young Republicans, who within the movement "
expresses the Gaullist sensitivity, which is not the same as the liberal sensibility
“, embodied, according to him, by Emmanuel Macron.
Same attitude on the part of Eric Ciotti, representative of the right of the right and who came second in the Republican primary: “
I will not vote Emmanuel Macron who failed.
The fact remains that, according to the Ipsos poll, 45% of Valérie Pécresse voters will refer to the candidate of En Marche.
Referring in turn to the "
climate and ecological challenge
", "
the inequalities that persist
" and "
Islamist separatism
", Emmanuel Macron's speech last night was therefore tinged with all-out foot calls.
“
His new voices, Emmanuel Macron will have to go get them with his teeth, especially among the voters of Jean-Luc Mélenchon,
concludes Valérie Gas, head of the political department of RFI.
And we know that it is not won: the people who voted for Jean-Luc Mélenchon in the first round will have difficulty putting an Emmanuel Macron ballot in the ballot box on April 24, it is no longer as automatic as for previous ballots.
»
Newsletter
Receive all the international news directly in your mailbox
I subscribe
Follow all the international news by downloading the RFI application
google-play-badge_EN
Presidential France 2022
Emmanuel Macron
Marine Le Pen
our selection