Scenarios before the second round

Candidates who could spoil Macron's bid for a second term

The elections this time witnessed a great reluctance from the French.

AFP

French President Emmanuel Macron is the favorite to win a second term in the presidential elections, which take place in two rounds, the first started on Sunday, and the second will take place on April 24.

But after his first presidential term marked by social turmoil, during which he took steps to liberalize French labor laws, cut taxes on the rich and corporations, and try to remake transatlantic relations, the difference is much narrower than that which accompanied his victory over far-right candidate Marine Le Pen in 2017.

Here is a look at the most prominent scenarios for the crucial second round of the elections:

Most likely: Macron - Le Pen

Le Pen is the closest candidate to face Macron in the second round.

Opinion polls indicate a rise in its shares, as it is no longer the same sharp rhetoric, and is now sending voters a simple message: I will return the money to your pockets.

Le Pen's assessments indicate that she has succeeded in dispelling the demonization of her far-right party, without changing its core anti-immigration platform.

Polls show that up to 23% of voters intend to vote for her in the first round.

Coming to a run-off with Macron, polls suggest she could get as much as 47-48.5%, leaving the win at the mercy of the statistical margin of error.

Abstainers and undecided voters may surprise.

• The surprise scenario: Macron - Melenchon

Far-left candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon is third in the polls and continues to advance.

His supporters hope for a boom.

With the Socialist Party, the traditional symbol of the center-left, on the verge of losing the compass and the Green Party struggling to muster a broad support base, Melenchon pleads with left-wing voters to rally around him.

He now receives between 14 and 17 percent in voter support polls, compared to between nine and 10 percent in January for the first round.

Opinion polls expect Macron to beat him easily if he reaches the second round.

• Unlikely scenario: Macron-Zemore

The race was rocked in the early stages by the rise of Eric Zemore, a talk-show star who embraces former US President Donald Trump's anti-establishment approach and portrays himself as the savior of a nation under a perceived threat from Islam.

Last year, some pollsters had predicted Zeymore will reach the second round, but his support waned after he found it difficult to craft ideas beyond immigration and security and his comments on Russia hurt him.

But opinion polls now show him winning with between 9 and 11% of the vote in the first round, well ahead of Le Pen and Melenchon.

Opinion polls show Macron would comfortably beat Zemour if he faced him in a second round.

• Unlikely scenario: Macron-Pecres

Greater Paris region president Valerie Pecresse, who describes herself as a mixture of Margaret Thatcher and Angela Merkel, won the ticket for the conservative Republican Party in December, giving her a boost in opinion polls.

However, her campaign has faltered, as she finds it difficult to present herself as different from Macron, while confronting the nationalist programs of her far-right rivals.

The latest recent opinion polls show her winning with just 8-10% of the vote in the first round.

A highly unlikely scenario: Macron is out of the race

No opinion poll indicated Macron's failure to reach the run-off scheduled for April 24.

Follow our latest local and sports news and the latest political and economic developments via Google news