The French presidential election is now a duel between Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen, as it was five years ago.

But one should be careful not to shrug off the repeated success of the illiberal right-wing populist and assume that 2017 will be repeated.

At that time things went well, in the second round “only” every third French voted for Le Pen.

But apart from the two names that will be on the ballot papers in two weeks, almost everything is different this time.

In 2017, Macron was an outsider himself, a man of change, a beacon of hope for many French tired of the political class and mainstream parties.

After the Brexit referendum and Donald Trump's entry into the White House, he infected young French people in particular with his enthusiasm for Europe and his undaunted liberalism.

This time, on the other hand, Macron, as incumbent, is “the establishment” himself.

He has a lot to show for economic reforms;

in “Europe” he didn't get as far as he had hoped;

as a reconciler of the "two Frances" he failed.

He certainly hasn't, as promised in 2017, been able to drive out the tendency of the French to seek their salvation in extreme parties.

Eric Zemmour has completed Le Pen's mission

On the contrary.

Five years ago, Macron was still able to count on the 26 percent of the votes that the once major Socialist and Right-wing parties had won in round one, but according to the projections on Sunday, their share of the vote added up to little more than seven percent.

Le Pen is more likely than Macron to hope for the votes of left-wing populist and EU opponent Jean-Luc Mélenchon, which is almost three times as strong.

Eric Zemmour, who months ago appeared to strangle Le Pen from the right, has ultimately turned out to be her greatest helper: by appearing even more radically than she did, he completed the "Project De-deviling" that Le Pen had already launched for her father's party 15 years ago had prescribed for years.

After Macron's two-thirds victory five years ago, she had already sanded down the party name - the martial "front" became a binding "assembly" - and had the EU exit project removed from the program.

Now she could appear almost state-supporting, while her competitor Zemmour made headlines with gaffes.

But that's just a facade.

Even if she orientated herself as president "only" to Viktor Orbán of Hungary, whose re-election she recently celebrated: the EU would not be able to cope with that.

Such a result would definitely make 2022 an annus horribilis.

The fact that a good half of the French did not let the terrible pictures from Ukraine this weekend deter them from making their cross to (former?) admirers of the war criminal Vladimir Putin is more than a bitter side note of the election night.

During the election campaign, Macron made himself scarce and wanted to prove his indispensability as a crisis manager and war president in the Elysée.

Now he has to go into battle at home: for his office and for a free Europe.