For the first time in twenty years, the outgoing president has won the first round and, for the first time in more than forty years, the French have qualified in the second round for the same duel as in the previous presidential election.

The ballot was announced uncertain and volatile until the last day.

By collecting 27.6% to 29.7% of the votes cast, Emmanuel Macron is in the high water level that the polling institutes promised him at the end of the campaign, higher than his 2017 score (24.01%).

A satisfaction?

If the same analysts counted a month ago on a potential of more than 30% of the votes for the outgoing president, a time beneficiary of a "flag effect" linked to the war in Ukraine, the staff of the macronie was not choosy Sunday evening after the last few days deemed complicated.

Biography and program elements of Emmanuel Macron Kenan AUGEARD AFP

A campaign deemed late, sluggish and lackluster, with uncertain positioning, raised fears of a bad surprise, as the curves of the Head of State and those of Mrs. Le Pen were getting closer.

In the end, it did not start its dynamic.

The parsimony with which the favorite candidate agreed to travel, letting the idea of ​​"stepping over" this first round recklessly considered risk-free, also raised serious questions.

The warning against an announced performance by the far-right candidate finally seems to have borne fruit, while Emmanuel Macron had again accused his rival on Thursday of being "racist" in an interview with Le Parisien.

New dynamic

Is Emmanuel Macron the favorite for the second round?

"Yes, but", answer some of the president's lieutenants, as the campaign between the two rounds promises to be open.

Because the political landscape born of this first round is unprecedented: first, the historical weakness of the Socialist Party, the Republicans, but also the Greens, suggests a "republican front" stripped.

Worse: like five years ago, Jean-Luc Mélenchon reserves his voting instructions and the hypothesis that he calls for the Macron ballot in a fortnight appears weak.

Likewise, LR's right wing seems resigned to a "neither-Le Pen, nor-Macron", like the positions of Laurent Wauquiez or Eric Ciotti in 2017.

The French president and candidate for re-election of the liberal party La République en Marche (LREM) Emmanuel Macron greets his supporters during his first campaign rally at the Arena Paris La Défense, in Nanterre on April 2, 2022 Thomas COEX AFP

The candidate of the National Rally can also count for the first time on a substantial reserve of votes, since the voters of Eric Zemmour are ultra-majority ready to vote for her on April 24, according to polling institutes.

More generally, the Macron camp has been concerned in recent weeks, as Ms. Le Pen has risen in the polls, to see the daughter of Jean-Marie Le Pen succeed in correcting a hitherto divisive image, in favor of that of a stateswoman.

For the macronists, it is first of all a question of capitalizing on a good score promised to launch a new dynamic.

On the merits, the supporters of the Head of State intend above all to recall the far-right fundamentals of Mrs. Le Pen, in an attempt to re-demonize.

Whether on institutions, Europe or his vision of the world, the Macron camp wants more than ever to send Marine Le Pen back to his supposed "illiberal" conception of democracy, like the head of the Hungarian government Viktor Orbán - whom she congratulated on her reappointment last week, and her once proclaimed closeness to Vladimir Putin.

Similarly, Marine Le Pen's economic vision, deemed unserious, as much as her reversals during the health crisis, must fuel a trial of incompetence.

"To think that activating this lever of the + republican front + against the extreme right will be enough on its own, it is an illusion. Because the change of image of Marine Le Pen is a reality", however warns the director of the Jean -Jaures, Gilles Finchelstein.

High point: the debate between the two rounds, scheduled for Wednesday, April 20.

"But it can't be worse than the last time, so we'll say it was better," fears someone close to the outgoing head of state.

© 2022 AFP