The Iraqi authorities are unable to find other sources for the state budget besides oil, whose sales feed more than 90% of revenues, and this has made the country hostage to fluctuations in international crude prices, even though it has many potential sources to enhance the annual budget if used correctly.

The absence of strategic solutions to activate or revitalize other sectors and the almost absolute dependence on oil has increased the spread of unemployment and the absence of job opportunities for those with certificates and experience, with the population growth rate continuing to rise to about 2.7%, and the poverty rate reaching about 25%, according to the Ministry of Planning.

A number of Iraqis flock to submit their papers in order to obtain a job opportunity in front of an institution (Reuters)

A World Bank report indicates that about 13 million Iraqis earn less than two dollars a day, with expectations that the population of Iraq will reach 80 million by the year 2050.

billion barrels annually

Iraq annually exports more than one billion barrels of crude oil, and needs about $90 billion annually to cover its annual budget, which is linked in large part to crude oil exports.

Iraq annually needs about 90 trillion dinars ($60 billion) for operational spending - according to previous reports - half of which is for the salaries of state and public sector employees, in addition to about 18 trillion dinars ($12 billion) that goes to social welfare salaries and retirees, and the rest is for other expenses.

Al-Marsoumi sees the need for Iraq to exploit the current oil surpluses to build a diversified production base (Al-Jazeera Net)

political decision maker

Despite warnings of a decrease in demand for oil in the future, the oil expert, Dr. Nabil Al Marsoumi, stands in defense of oil by assuring that it will be the first source of energy at least until the year 2050, noting that there is a shortage of investments in the oil sectors and a decrease of 30% this year compared to 2019. , offset by a shortage of supply and an increase in demand.

These data prompted Al-Massoumi to demand that Iraq should invest in the available oil factors with the significant rise in prices that recently broke the $100 barrier due to geopolitical factors, provided that oil surpluses should be used to build a diversified production base that would achieve alternative sources of income.

However, the oil expert believes that Iraq depends on oil excessively, as it constitutes more than half of the gross domestic product and more than 90% of the budget, which puts the country vulnerable to market turmoil, in the absence of social and financial buffers that mitigate crises, and Iraq - And unlike a large number of petro-states, it does not have a sovereign fund or a fund for future generations to invest and benefit from oil revenues.

In response to a question by Al Jazeera Net about the possibility of other sectors such as industry, agriculture and tourism competing with oil in securing the country's operational and investment imports, Al Marsoumi says that this depends on the political decision maker.

He believes that the political decision-maker in Iraq does not believe in economic development based on a clear and specific action plan.

One of the cases that makes the oil expert in a state of frustration with the economic mentality that runs the country is that the annual revenues of the tourism sector in it amount to about 85 million dollars, while the imports of the same sector in other countries such as Egypt amount to more than 13 billion dollars.

Sumaisem sees tourism as the candidate sector to be a substitute for oil to revive Iraq's finances (communication sites)

Who is competing with oil?

Since 2003, vital sectors such as industry, agriculture and tourism have been clearly neglected, making them in a miserable position that has not reached the required level, in return for increased imports from neighboring countries such as Iran, Turkey, Jordan, Syria and Saudi Arabia.

Economic researcher Salam Sumaisem believes that tourism constitutes the candidate sector to be a substitute for oil to revive Iraq's finances, on the condition that revenues be activated for this sector and good investment in it.

What Iraq needs to bring its tourism sector to the required level is the availability of infrastructure, most notably the hotel sectors, means of transportation, communication and communication networks, and the activation of banking services that allow tourists to communicate and provide the appropriate financial supply for them.

Sumaisem added that if Iraq imposed a symbolic fee of about $40 on granting a visa to its entrants, specifically during religious occasions that receive millions annually, it would have been able to supplement the budget by about $11 billion annually.

Antoine described the marginalization of other sectors such as industry, agriculture, tourism and services as a big mistake (Al-Jazeera Net)

private sector

For his part, economic researcher Bassem Antoine describes the Iraqi economy's dependence on oil and the marginalization of other sectors such as industry, agriculture, tourism and services as a big mistake in managing state resources, noting that the development of non-oil sectors would provide revenues of close to 40% of oil revenue.

And one of the negatives recorded on the Iraqi economy is that the state largely dominates and monopolizes it, and it spends on about 70 public companies and 250 laboratories, most of which are almost idle without having a good return or output.

This is what prompted some experts, including Antoine, to put forward the idea of ​​abandoning these companies and transferring them to the private sector.

In the event that this happens, the productivity of the individual will increase with the contribution of the private sector to increasing the gross domestic product with a significant increase in revenues. However, if it remains in the hands of the state and it is unable to develop it, as is the case in the electricity sector, it means that things will remain as they are.

The industrial sector in Iraq currently constitutes only 1.5% of the gross domestic product in Iraq (Al Jazeera Net)

In a previous stage, the industrial sector constituted more than 18% of the GDP, but today it is not equal to more than 1.5%, as Antoine confirms to Al Jazeera Net, as well as the case with the agricultural sector, which used to amount to about 24% and today does not exceed 5%.

Although the industrial sector is almost paralyzed today, the economist does not rule out the possibility that oil will compete in generating large revenues for the state if it is employed correctly.

Antoine criticizes the marginalization of the petrochemical industries, which were among the basic industries for which Iraq was famous and that brought him good revenues, in addition to the extractive and manufacturing industries, as well as the transport and insurance sectors.