• In 2017, the Toulousains had placed Jean-Luc Mélenchon at the head of the 1st round of the Presidential, to the detriment of a vote traditionally rather pink.

  • Political scientist Jean-Michel Ducomte feels that this trend could be confirmed on Sunday.

  • Toulouse could also turn out to be more permeable to the far right this time.

Will Toulouse confirm its "radicalization" at the polls?

While nearly 260,000 voters are expected Sunday in its 265 polling stations for the 1st round of the presidential election, the time has come to rewind the electoral thread.

And to remember that Toulouse had placed Jean-Luc Mélenchon in the lead.

The rebellious had obtained 29.17% of the vote, ahead of Emmanuel Macron (27.26%) and François Fillon (17.67%), leaving far behind Benoît Hamon (10.35%) and Marine Le Pen (9.41 %).

A priori, the tradition that the capital of Occitania “vote on the left for national elections” – and on the right in municipal elections – was respected.

Whatever.

“Toulouse was, in principle, marked by a social-democratic culture and voted for the socialist candidate, but the “at the same time” of Emmanuel Macron disrupted the game. And with Mélenchon, we witnessed a more radical vote », Analyzes the politician Jean-Michel Ducomte.

Benoît Hamon was indeed far from the 34.44% of François Hollande in 2017 or the 36.15% of Ségolène Royal in 2012.

“The Collapse of Social Democracy”

The Sciences Po teacher feels that Sunday's election will be part of this trend on the left, "with, as everywhere else, the collapse of social democracy".

For the benefit of a Jean-Luc Mélenchon on his momentum from the Capitol meeting and helped by the famous useful vote (become "effective"), an appeal that the specialist "curious for a first round".

He also has the impression that some left-wing voters, who had voted for Emmanuel Macron, could show "their dissatisfaction" by setting their sights on the ecologist Yannick Jadot and, "in a more modest way", on Anne Hidalgo.

But for Jean-Michel Ducomte, "the originality of this ballot" in Toulouse could above all consist in "the emergence of a vote for the far right" in a city so far rather reluctant to this ideology.

In 2012, Marine Le Pen was at 10.34%, in 2007, Jean-Marie Le Pen was barely at 6.34%.

The other originality announced being a risk of record abstention [it was "only" 26.3% in Toulouse in the 1st round of 2017], the political scientist remains cautious.

"Abstention is a difficult variable to grasp because it has a discriminating effect on political parties," he explains.

Normally, it is rather unfavorable to the RN ”.

Verdict of the polls Sunday evening.

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  • Toulouse

  • Elections

  • Presidential election 2022

  • Jean-Luc Melenchon

  • Emmanuel Macron

  • Occitania