Beijing's failure to condemn the Russian invasion horrified the European Union
The war in Ukraine spoils the relationship between China and its European partners
The Europeans are putting aside commercial interests with China until the war is over.
À from the source
Ursula von der Leyen and Charles Michel lead the European delegation in talks with Beijing.
À from the source
Angela Merkel has been one of the most supportive of cooperation with China.
À archival
picture
Chinese leaders wanted the mood to be “business as usual,” but the China-EU summit, on April 1, was not at all normal.
This is because Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and China's cold-blooded response to it, made some rethink Europe's old "trade first" policies with China.
European Union leaders attended the summit, which was held via video link, with low expectations.
They at least hoped to send a message to Chinese President Xi Jinping that the Ukraine war is a critical moment in bilateral relations, and for China's image, if it refuses to use its influence to end the fighting.
promotion
In a sense, the two representatives of Europe at the summit, the President of the European Council, Charles Michel, and the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, cast a shadow over two figures who were not present, namely, the former German chancellor, Angela Merkel, and the Russian President, Vladimir Putin.
And no leader is more closely related to Europe's old policy toward China than Merkel.
In her 16 years as a consultant, she has promoted an appropriate approach to China as an invaluable source of economic opportunity and potential partner on issues such as climate change, despite disappointing human rights abuses.
Putin's invasion of Ukraine on February 24 was a disaster for proponents of this approach.
Because Russia's use of force has enjoyed tacit support from Jinping.
Although China says it is neutral, its real stance is by no means neutral.
China blames the war on America for trampling on Russia's legitimate security interests by expanding the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) to include countries affiliated with the former Soviet Union.
Europeans know that the expansion of the Alliance was, in fact, prompted by a request from the countries of the former communist bloc, which feared Russian aggression (for good reason).
European Union governments are appalled at China's refusal to urge Russia to stop the war.
They consider that Beijing's failure to act quickly and forcefully is unacceptable to a world power that retains a permanent seat on the Security Council.
lopsided revenge
It took Chinese diplomats some time to realize that European leaders would not agree to a traditional summit focused on trade.
China's first offer was an online meeting with its prime minister, Li Keqiang, a technocrat with mainly an economic portfolio.
China's preferred agenda included signing memoranda and talks on reviving the Comprehensive Investment Agreement, a trade pact heavily backed by Merkel.
That deal has been frozen since China imposed sweeping sanctions on MEPs and European diplomats in 2021. It was a lopsided retaliation against EU sanctions against three Chinese officials and a former official accused of rights abuses in the northwestern region of Xinjiang.
Several governments have told China that the agreement cannot be reinstated until sanctions are lifted and concerns about forced labor in Xinjiang and other abuses are addressed.
One of the early ideas, pre-summit, included a long-awaited high-level dialogue on human rights.
Diplomats say the price China has paid for resuming those dialogues has been high.
Beijing called on the European Union and member states to stop supporting statements about violations of Chinese rights in global forums, such as the United Nations Human Rights Council;
It was rejected.
Instead, Michel and von der Leyen were to raise human rights at the summit, touching on thorny issues such as China's iron-fisted rule of Xinjiang, Tibet, and Hong Kong.
The duo was also expected to provoke Chinese threats toward the island of Taiwan.
Hope dashed
China's hope to celebrate at the end of the summit was dashed by a wave of deal signings, including progress on various customs and trade rules.
This cannot happen as long as an EU member state, Lithuania, is subject to a Chinese trade boycott as punishment for establishing semi-official relations with Taiwan.
Indeed, Michel and von der Leyen were expected to express the union's dismay at China's penchant for "economic coercion".
But first and foremost, the summit was seen as an opportunity to deliver messages on Ukraine and ensure engagement with the Chinese leader, who is the ultimate decision-maker on foreign policy matters.
Pre-summit negotiations were tense, as the Europeans made clear that Jinping would heed a warning: China would face a heavy cost if it helped Russian President Vladimir Putin circumvent Western sanctions against Russia or provided him with military aid.
Chinese officials preemptively instructed the Europeans not to threaten their leader.
opportunistic relationship
Europe is not used to talking about war and peace with China.
"Our relations are based on trade and the economy, which makes us very opportunistic," says a European diplomat in Beijing.
It can be argued that China is doing Europe a favor by explaining how it expects the West to lose from the conflict in Ukraine.
To ambassadors in Beijing, Chinese officials brag that they see the EU as split between old and new members.
These officials also predict that the transatlantic union between Europe and America will collapse, and that sanctions will fail to break Russia's will, not least as European voters protest against rising energy prices and an influx of refugees from Ukraine.
The Chinese's rejoicing over the Western divide is instructive;
Proving this incorrect is a good starting point for the EU's strategy toward China.
As a second diplomat puts it: “China is watching our Russia policy closely: how much pain we are willing to endure.
Europe shows that it is united and ready to pay the price.
He adds that the stakes are high, as deterring a possible Chinese attack on Taiwan requires demonstrating that the West is capable of unity and determination.
In addition, there are other voices urging calm, considering that China needs Europe, as a market and source of technology and investments, especially when China's relations with America are in a bad state.
And some of Europe's largest companies have lucrative interests in China that they are not about to give up.
According to diplomats, there is no indication that China is circumventing sanctions against Russia.
But Putin is trying to redraw Europe's borders by force, and President Jinping will not condemn him.
This is a direct challenge to the founding principles of the European Union.
It cannot be business as usual with China.
Putin showed Europe that it needed a new policy toward China.
• European Union governments are appalled at China's refusal to urge Russia to stop the war. They consider that Beijing's failure to act quickly and forcefully is unacceptable to a world power that retains a permanent seat on the Security Council.
• Chinese officials expect that the transatlantic union between Europe and America will collapse, and that sanctions will fail to break Russia's will, not least the European voters' protest over rising energy prices and the influx of refugees from Ukraine.
• During her 16 years as chancellor, Merkel has promoted an appropriate approach, treating China as an invaluable source of economic opportunity and potential partner on issues such as climate change, despite disappointing human rights abuses.
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