A mass grave, bodies tied up, shot at point-blank range… After the Boutcha massacre, in the north-western suburbs of kyiv, European leaders promised, on Monday April 4, to impose new sanctions on Russia, that they hold responsible.
But even as they lashed out at the horror of the footage, it seemed unlikely they would agree to end lucrative Russian gas imports which critics say are funding Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Russia.
However, Lithuania did it, announcing to end all its imports of Russian gas.
"From now on, Lithuania will not consume a cubic centimeter of poisonous Russian gas," Ingrida Simonyte, the country's prime minister, wrote on Twitter on Sunday, hailing her country as the first member of the European Union (EU ) "to refuse imports of Russian gas".
From now and so on Lithuania won't be consuming a cubic cm of toxic russian gas.
LT is the first EU country to refuse Russian gas import.
— Ingrida Šimonytė (@IngridaSimonyte) April 3, 2022
The announcement was celebrated as a milestone in the energy independence of this former Soviet republic of 2.8 million people.
It capped a remarkable turnaround for a country that in 2015 imported almost all of its gas from Russia.
"Years ago, my country took decisions that allow us today to painlessly sever energy ties with the aggressor," Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda added in a separate post.
"If we can do it, the rest of Europe can do it too!"
>> If Russian gas exports stop, "Moscow has more to lose than Europe"
The "Independence" gas terminal
Like its Baltic neighbours, Lithuania was once heavily dependent on Russian energy imports, but the situation changed dramatically as early as 2014, when the country launched a liquid natural gas (LNG) terminal, aptly named "Independence", in the port city of Klaipeda.
“We understood long ago that depending on one source, namely [Russian] Gazprom, was too dangerous for us, so we bought this terminal as a kind of insurance policy,” says Mauricas Zygimantas, an economist at the Vilnius-based financial institute Luminor Lietuva, in an interview with France 24.
"It's a very successful investment," he adds.
"Not only have we stopped financing Russia, but now we also sell gas to our neighbors Latvia and Estonia, and from next month we will also sell gas to Poland."
Although Latvia and Estonia do not have their own LNG terminal, discussions are underway to build one in partnership with Finland.
Meanwhile, the operator of Latvia's natural gas storage facility said it relied on existing reserves to end imports from Russia.
According to Mauricas Zygimantas, Latvia recently regained control of its gas infrastructure, which was previously in the hands of Gazprom.
It therefore has enough reserves to hold out until the end of the year, and can afford to break with Russia.
"The Baltic states realized early on that Russia was using energy as a political tool, we didn't want to be cornered," he says, noting that energy prices have been rising since long before the war in Ukraine .
"Russia started the energy war last summer, I'm amazed that Western European leaders didn't see this sooner."
Boomerang effect
The three Baltic states were among the loudest voices calling on the EU to end its dependence on Russian oil and gas.
A week earlier, Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda had already called on his European partners to stop buying Russian fuel "because the Kremlin regime uses this money to finance the destruction of Ukrainian cities and attacks against peaceful civilians ".
Russia supplies about 40% of Europe's gas needs.
That share is even larger in countries like Germany, which has been rocked by a debate over how to end a business relationship that helps fund the Kremlin's war effort.
As Europe uncovered the footage of the Boutcha massacre on Sunday, German Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht broke a long-standing taboo by saying the EU must discuss a gas import ban Russian - before being contradicted by her cabinet colleagues the next day.
"The problem for Europe is always the same: how to inflict pain on Russia without hurting ourselves," asks Nicolas Mazzucchi, researcher and energy specialist at the Foundation for Strategic Research in Paris.
"If you hit the strategic heart of Europe's economic partnership with Russia, there is inevitably a boomerang effect."
When it comes to stopping Russian imports, the Baltic states have both an advantage and a head start on the rest of Europe, adds Nicolas Mazzucchi.
"The Baltic states, as well as Poland, have been trying for many years to reduce their dependence on Russia, especially with regard to gas supplies," he said.
"The three Baltic states are also smaller and less populated than many other EU members, with very different consumption structures. We are talking about relatively low gas consumption compared to countries like France or the EU. 'Germany."
Last March, EU leaders set out a strategy that could cut dependence on this fuel source by two-thirds within a year.
But even this goal will be extremely difficult to achieve, says Nicolas Mazzucchi.
"To supply the Baltic States, you have to find around 10 to 12 million cubic meters per year, it's difficult but doable", he specifies.
“On the other hand, when the EU says it wants to cut its imports of Russian gas by two thirds, that amounts to 100 billion cubic meters. It is a whole different scale and a whole different economic and geopolitical problem. We do not have 100 billion cubic meters that are readily available," continues the researcher.
By pipeline or by ship
If there is no shortage of natural gas in the world, the problem is to transport it to Europe, by gas pipeline or by ship.
One option would be to increase imports from Azerbaijan, "but that would mean expanding the existing gas pipeline or building a new one," says Nicolas Mazzucchi, noting that Azerbaijan's production capacity is also a lot. lower than that of Russia.
The gas pipelines transporting Algerian gas to southern Europe offer another option, "but which is not ideal in terms of economic and geopolitical stability", he adds.
Overall, Europe should be wary of replacing its dependence on Russia with a dependence on another supplier, the energy specialist warns, adding that LNG shipments offer a better chance of spreading the risk across a set of suppliers.
In the short term, however, these supplies will not be enough to meet Europe's huge demand.
The United States has agreed to ship an additional 15 billion cubic meters of LNG to Europe by the end of the year, to supply 50 billion cubic meters a year until at least 2030.
But that would still only be a third of Europe's imports from Russia, meaning other sources will also be needed.
"The EU can turn to countries in the eastern Mediterranean, such as Cyprus, Israel and maybe Egypt, but not all countries have available supplies or the capacity to liquefy the gas", explains Nicolas Mazzucchi, referring to another obstacle: the limited number of gas carriers, almost exclusively built in Asia and whose assembly takes time.
The scarcity of immediately available resources means Europe will have to prove it can coordinate and share, says Ben McWilliams, climate and energy policy analyst and researcher at the Bruegel Institute in Brussels.
"LNG is the obvious solution, but as things stand it can only offset about half of Russian gas, and that's already stretched," he continues to France 24. "We need coordination and solidarity in gas imports, ideally by importing as a single bloc - as the European Commission is now trying to do - rather than leaving individual member states to compete on international markets and drive up prices ."
This means helping Member States which do not have LNG terminals or storage facilities, he adds, as well as those which, like Austria, are heavily dependent on Russian gas and have no no access to the sea.
The green shift
However, according to the Lithuanian economist Mauricas Zygimantas, the EU must also be more careful in the choice of its suppliers if it wishes to reduce its dependence vis-à-vis autocratic regimes.
He explains in particular that the West's eagerness to shut down its own production capacities as demand continues to increase has left it at the mercy of autocrats, while financing their regimes.
Europe is scrambling to find alternatives to Russian gas and oil as the continent's last fossil fuel extractors scale back in an attempt to limit global warming.
But passing the buck is not a solution, believes the economist.
“Fossil fuels are no greener coming from Russia than coming from Norway. In fact, they are killing people in Ukraine as we speak,” he recalls.
"We need to import more energy sources from democratic regimes, which in turn need to increase supply while investing heavily in renewables."
This is another area in which the Baltic States have led the way, adds the economist, for whom the Lithuanian LNG terminal represents "only one side of the coin - the other being the reduction of consumption". .
Mauricas Zygimantas also points to the transformation of Lithuania's central heating system, which "was dominated by gas and now runs 80% on biofuel", noting that Estonia has made even greater progress.
“Our low population density means there is plenty of space to develop wind farms and other renewable projects, both on land and at sea,” he adds.
All of this also makes economic sense, as "gas prices are expected to remain high for the foreseeable future."
"We should not use gas to generate electricity, as some countries in Europe still do," concludes Zygimantas.
"We should use nuclear power, wind farms or even coal in the short term, especially when you see what gas is financing in Ukraine."
A politically sensitive issue
Energy researcher Nicolas Mazzucci believes that accelerating the transition to green energy sources is a viable option for countries, such as Germany, that still depend on gas to generate electricity. electricity.
European countries also have an opportunity to make the storage, transportation and distribution of gas across the bloc more efficient, he says, while warning that attempts to cut household consumption will be a much harder sell.
"Politically, it's a very sensitive issue," he concludes.
"In France, for example, gas is mainly used for cooking and heating. How do you tell people who have just bought a gas cooker that they can no longer use it?"
This may be the price to pay to save Ukraine.
Article adapted from English by Pauline Rouquette.
Find the original version here.
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