"We can see that prices are starting to climb," said Emily Mayer, consumer goods expert at the IRI institute, which publishes a monthly survey of prices in supermarkets.

"In February, we measured an increase of 0.6% compared to 2021, in March we are at 1.5%."

This movement will increase because the food manufacturers have generally obtained a higher price for their products in supermarkets, following the latest trade negotiations, which ended on March 1, and this, especially since the government has already asked actors to get back around the table.

Agro-industrialists have new additional costs to pass on with the war in Ukraine - a leading agricultural producer prevented from exporting - and the avian flu which is decimating farms.

The price of many ingredients is skyrocketing: flour, oils, wheat, milk, eggs and meat...

During the negotiations, "we had made forecasts based on price estimates in October", which have nothing to do with the current "staggering proportions" of additional costs, reports to AFP Didier Boudy, who chairs the federation. bringing together bakery and pastry manufacturers (FEB).

Butter - "essential, we put it everywhere" - was at 7.50 euros per kilo at the end of March, he illustrates.

"In October-November, we were counting on 5 euros and two years ago, we were at 3.50 euros."

"Everything has been shattered since the war in Ukraine", notes Frédéric Chartier, in particular at the head of a breeding of 40,000 free-range hens in the Côtes-d'Armor.

By July, he estimates that feeding his poultry will cost 500 euros more per day, or 15,000 euros more per month.

It would therefore be necessary to "increase the selling price by an average of 1.35 cents per egg, which is really substantial".

Manufacturers are also hit by the rise in energy, transport and packaging.

Feeling of "downgrading"

For their part, supermarkets are trying to pass on as little price increase as possible to keep their customers.

Emily Mayer anticipates "5% in total" of average price increase, or "the level observed in 2008".

An average that masks disparities depending on the product: pasta has already increased a lot, by 13% compared to 2021, oils by 7.4%, flour by 7.1%, sugar by 4.2%, lists Emily Mayer, and the movement could continue.

This will not be neutral for many consumers, starting with the most modest, recalls the president of the consumer association UFC-Que Choisir, Alain Bazot.

"For the 20% least well-off, food weighs 17% of the budget, against 10% for the 20% most well-off."

In addition, "other constrained expenditure items have increased enormously and weigh on the budget of the French", notes Emily Mayer, who expects both a "regulation on the quantity" on the part of consumers, in particular on purchases " pleasure", confectionery, beauty for example, and a quest for cheaper purchases.

Among the less well-off French people, those "who rather consume national brand products will turn to private labels, those who buy private labels towards lower prices", also believes Alain Bazot, who warns of the feeling of "downgrading" which could emanate from the "frustration of not consuming as one would like".

© 2022 AFP