Richard Haass: The resilience of the Kyiv leadership, society and armed forces is a miracle
Winners and losers in Putin's war with Ukraine
Chinese leader Xi Jinping's side with Putin in the war has done strategic damage to Beijing.
Reuters
A Ukrainian school was destroyed by the Russian war machine.
Father
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It has been more than a month since Russian President Vladimir Putin's war against Ukraine, and the veteran diplomat and President of the US Council on Foreign Relations, Richard Haass, believes that there are in fact two wars, a Russian war being waged primarily against Ukrainian cities and civilians, and a war being waged by the Ukrainian armed forces against the armed forces of Ukraine. Russian.
Russia wins the first war, and Ukraine wins the second.
perfect situation
In an article published by the Council on Foreign Relations website, Haass adds that the ideal situation is for negotiations to lead to a ceasefire and a permanent settlement, but similarly, if not likely, the conflict will continue for some time, especially if Putin decides to pursue a strategy that reduces participation His forces are in combat, refusing to accept a negotiated end, on terms that the Ukrainian government can accept.
The biggest loser
It's easier to identify the biggest loser, Haas said, which is Russia.
It is now clear that Putin will not be able to achieve the political goals he is likely to pursue: entering Kyiv, changing the government of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, and installing a Karmic-friendly government in its place.
The war chosen by Putin may have destroyed a large part of it physically, but the unprecedented sanctions, and the economic isolation that it caused, are destroying Russia economically.
In addition, many talented Russians have left the country, and the Russian army has suffered heavy losses, and it will take years to make up for its losses.
On the other hand, the resilience of Ukraine's leadership, society, and armed forces is a miracle.
The national identity is stronger than ever, and Ukraine's strong resistance has bolstered its young democracy.
But that reinforcement came at a high price, as some 10 million Ukrainians - a quarter of the population - became internally displaced or refugees.
NATO is a winner
Haas says that NATO, while untested militarily, is a big winner so far. It is stronger and more united as a result of Russian aggression, and it benefits from the poor performance of the Russian armed forces, which appear to be no match for the Western alliance.
Germany and its new government and chancellor are another big winner so far, and bear the reactions of Chancellor Olaf Scholz's government with the realization that the legacy of the former chancellor, Angela Merkel, is now clearly mixed, because it allowed Germany to become so dependent on Russian energy .
Schulz's decision to scrap the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, commit to doubling spending, and prepare to provide arms to Ukraine represent significant, drastic changes. The only disappointing thing is that it will take years for Germany's economy to rid itself of Russian gas.
US President Joe Biden also gained, skillfully managing a policy of supporting Ukraine and punishing Russia, and by refusing to demand troops on the ground or a no-fly zone, he prevented the risk of a third world war.
Biden brought America's allies together, much needed, after four years of Trump rule and a wrong US withdrawal from Afghanistan.
His only major misstep was describing Putin as a "war criminal" and hinting at regime change in Russia, when the goal of US policy should have been to push Putin to stop the war and avoid any kind of escalation.
China is in a bad position
Hass adds that China and its president, Xi Jinping, is in a worse position strategically than it was a month ago. By engaging so closely with Putin, Xi has exposed himself to criticism for his wrong decision, which damages China's reputation and increases the risks to which it will be exposed as a result. secondary penalties.
Although China has long sought to divide the West, its alignment with Russia has achieved the opposite, angering Western Europe, in which China is achieving important economic successes.
It will also lead to a tougher US policy towards China, and highlight the losses that China could face, if at any time it decided to move militarily against Taiwan.
In addition, there are many more losers than winners, as with any war.
The United Nations and the Security Council seem weak. War is bad for global efforts to slow the spread of nuclear weapons.
Ukraine gave up its stockpile 28 years ago in exchange for ensuring its territorial integrity, with the result being two invasions since 2014. The crisis is similarly bad for efforts to combat climate change, which at least temporarily appear to have dwindled and focused on measures aimed at enhancing energy security. .
It is also a bad crisis for those who say conquest of territory and wars between nations are a thing of the past, or for those who have said in recent years that things have never been better.
world order
In concluding his article, Hass says there is one important thing about what war will mean for the world order.
The Russian invasion violated the most important basis of stability in the world, which is not changing borders through the threat of force.
Much will depend on what Putin gains from his adventure, or whether the price he will have to pay outweighs any gains, and that, more than anything else, will determine the final verdict of history as to what has been won and lost in Putin's war.
• Many talented Russians have left the country, and the Russian army has suffered heavy losses, and it will need years to compensate for its losses.
• Putin will not be able to achieve the political goals that he is likely seeking, which are entering Kyiv, changing the government of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, and installing a government friendly to the Kremlin in its place.
• Although China has long sought to divide the West, its alignment with Russia achieved the opposite, as it angered Western Europe, in which China achieved important economic successes. It will also lead to a tougher US policy towards China, and highlight the losses that China could face, if at any time it decided to move militarily against Taiwan.
• The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), although it has not been militarily tested, is a big winner so far. It is stronger and more united as a result of Russian aggression. It also benefits from the poor performance of the Russian armed forces, which seem to be no match for the Western alliance.
• The reactions of Chancellor Olaf Scholz's government carry with it the realization that what was left by former Chancellor Angela Merkel is now clearly mixed, because it allowed Germany to become very dependent on Russian energy.
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