Thomas Friedman: What is happening in Ukraine is the real World War I

After nearly 6 weeks of war between Russia and Ukraine, I'm starting to wonder about this conflict, isn't it really the first real world war we are living in, much more than the first and second world wars?

In this seemingly "global war on air" almost everyone can either watch the fight, participate in it in some way, or be affected economically by it, no matter where they live.

With this introduction, writer Thomas Friedman opened an opinion piece in the American New York Times, explaining that the battle that ignited this global war, although it seemed on the ground about who controls Ukraine, quickly turned into a “big battle” between the two most powerful political regimes. Hegemony in the world today, namely, the free market and “the democracy of the rule of law versus the authoritarian rule of thieves,” as the Swedish expert on Russian economist Anders Aslund told me.

Although this war is far from over and Russian President Vladimir Putin may find some way to win it and get out of it stronger, this war may be a turning point in the struggle between democratic and non-democratic regimes, and since World War II ended fascism, And the Cold War ended orthodox communism even in China.

So, what is happening on the streets of Kyiv, Mariupol and the Donbass region can affect political systems far from Ukraine and in the distant future.

In fact - says Friedman - there are other authoritarian leaders like China's, who are watching Russia carefully, seeing its economy weaken due to Western sanctions, thousands of its young technologists fleeing a government that denies them access to the internet and reliable news, and its seemingly incompetent army. Capable of collecting and sharing accurate information and relaying it to the top, these leaders must ask, “Are we really that fragile?”

Everyone is watching

In the first and second world wars - says Friedman - no person had a smartphone or a window on social networks that would enable him to follow the war and participate in it in non-active ways, but a large part of the world's population was still under colonialism, and they did not have complete freedom to express their views Independent consideration, even if they had the technology, as many residents outside war zones were extremely poor subsistence farmers who were not severely affected by World Wars I and II, and there were no globalized and urbanized lower and middle classes connected to the Internet, as they are today.

Now - adds Friedman - anyone with a smartphone can watch what is happening in Ukraine live and in color, and can express their opinions globally through social media, and anyone with a smartphone and credit card can help strangers in Ukraine, and governments can everywhere Almost a country vote to condemn or justify one side or another in Ukraine through the United Nations General Assembly.

In this context - the writer says - the Ukrainian government was able to take advantage of a completely new source of funding, as it collected more than 70 million dollars in cryptocurrencies from individuals around the world after appealing and requesting donations via social media, and the American billionaire Elon Musk activated the domain service. The satellite broadband of his company, SpaceX, in Ukraine to provide high-speed internet after a Ukrainian official tweeted a request for help to prevent Russian efforts to separate Ukraine from the world.

US-based commercial satellite companies such as Maxar Technologies have allowed anyone to watch from space hundreds of desperate people queuing for food outside a supermarket in Mariupol, even though the Russians surrounded the city on the ground and prevented any Press to log in.

There are also cyber warriors who can participate in combat from anywhere, and indeed they did, as CNBC reported that a popular Twitter account called “Anonymous” announced that his group was waging a cyberwar against Russia, and that the account “claimed responsibility for disrupting Prominent Russian government websites, news, companies and websites, and that he leaked data from entities such as the federal agency responsible for censoring Russian media.

These highly empowered, non-governmental global players and platforms did not exist in the days of World War I or II - as the writer notes - but just as more people can influence this war, so can many more, for example Russia and Ukraine are major suppliers of wheat And fertilizers, and this war disrupted their products, and thus a war between two countries in Europe led to a rise in food prices in Egypt, Brazil, India and Africa.

Tyrants should be worried

Although Russian President Vladimir Putin has saved up more than $600 billion in gold, foreign government bonds and foreign currency, which he earned from energy and mineral exports, as security and safety in the time of sanctions that the West may impose, he seems to have forgotten that his government deposited most of that money in China's banks. Western nations, all but China, have now frozen Russian reserves.

According to the Geo-Economics Center of the Atlantic Council, Putin will not be able to access about 330 billion dollars to support his country's deteriorating economy, but there will be a great global incentive to take advantage of these funds to pay compensation to rebuild homes, apartment buildings, roads and Ukrainian government structures that were destroyed by the Russian army, So the message to Putin is "Thank you for banking with us. It will be legally difficult to seize your savings for compensation, but it is better to make your lawyers ready."

For all of these reasons, says Friedman, all leaders around the world who have drifted toward some version of Putin-inspired authoritarian capitalism or kleptocracy, a government whose corrupt leaders use political power to seize the wealth of their people, should be concerned, even though their removal It will not be done easily for what they have become so adept at using new surveillance techniques and manipulating the policies and financial resources of the state in order to stay in power.

In this context, the writer enumerated a group of countries such as Myanmar, China, North Korea, Peru, Brazil, the Philippines, Hungary and many Arab countries, noting that Putin had hoped that a second term for former US President Donald Trump would transform the United States into a version of this kind of The strong thieves rule the strong man, and upset the whole world balance in his way.

Friedman concluded that Kyiv's ambition was not to join NATO but to the European Union, despite the fragility of democracy in it, and that Putin would never allow Slavic Ukraine to become a successful democracy in the free market, but it became clear that the latter had no inferior He didn't know the weaknesses of his system, he didn't realize how much the entire democratic and free world could join the fight against him in Ukraine.