"Another second round is possible" than a remake of the Macron-Le Pen duel: this is the message that the tribune is trying to convey to left-wing voters, echoing his official slogan "Another world is possible".

Jean-Luc Mélenchon went, Sunday in Toulouse, to offer himself in "compromise", a word he rarely uses, to qualify the left and beat the favorites.

He also regularly calls for "blocking" the far right from the first round.

His campaign manager Manuel Bompard believes that the constant progression of the candidate since January, up to around 15% of the voting intentions, comes mainly from the rising participation.

Because the other candidates on the left are not frankly falling in the polls.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon's campaign manager, Manuel Bompard (G) alongside the presidential candidate of La France Insoumise (LFI) in Marseille on March 27, 2022 CLEMENT MAHOUDEAU AFP / Archives

For him, the useful vote effect – a word that LFI does not use – has not yet been recorded and, together with a participation which would increase further, makes possible the surprise of access to the second round.

But according to the supporters of Yannick Jadot for example, this effect “does not exist”.

The rise of the Insoumis is explained because "many people did not speak out in the polls hoping for the union of the left, and when this was impossible, they went to the first on the left", told AFP Sophie Taillé-Polian, the co-leader of Generations, the movement founded by Benoît Hamon and which supports the environmental candidate.

For her, it is above all with the communist Fabien Roussel, whom certain polls place in his starting low water level around 3%, which Jean-Luc Mélenchon has nibbled.

While Yannick Jadot, in fact, has remained more or less around 5 or 6%.

For his part, the boss of socialist senators Patrick Kanner admits that "among socialist sympathizers who do not want a repeat of 2017, there may be a temptation" to vote Mélenchon.

"He manages to make people forget all his past verbal protrusions, by the quality of his character, the main strength of LFI", continues this lieutenant of Anne Hidalgo.

According to Patrick Kanner, however, "he will not pass the bar" necessary to qualify.

"Second Choice"

In a study published on Monday, the Jean-Jaurès Foundation shows that in addition to the remobilization of his electorate in 2017, Jean-Luc Mélenchon does indeed benefit from "transfers of votes from the rest of the left, and this as much from the radical left than the government left".

Thus, "34% of voters who thought they were voting for Christiane Taubira now plan to vote for Jean-Luc Mélenchon", note its authors, political scientists Antoine Bristielle and Laura Chazel.

19% of those who voted for Fabien Roussel, 17% of those in favor of Yannick Jadot and 21% of those for Anne Hidalgo in January, now say they want to vote LFI.

And the potential for increasing this useful vote remains significant, write political scientists: if "29% of Fabien Roussel's voters, 36% of Yannick Jadot's voters and 43% of Anne Hidalgo's voters declare that they will not be able to + never + vote for Jean-Luc Mélenchon", "29% of Fabien Roussel voters, 21% of Yannick Jadot voters and 13% of Anne Hidalgo voters make Jean-Luc Mélenchon their + second choice of vote +".

Left-wing voters continue to hesitate, and Jean-Luc Mélenchon knows it, calling for everyone's "individual responsibility".

The Jean-Jaurès Foundation underlines: "if the gap in the polls between Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon remains small until the first round, he can hope for a mobilization in his favor from part of the left-wing electorate " Sunday.

Implicitly, this finding calls for another: that the surveys continue to give Marine Le Pen several points above the Insoumis and the key argument for a possible qualification, an incentive to vote useful, will be diminished.

Manuel Bompard is also the first to recognize it: “If Marine Le Pen is 24 or 25% (April 10), we can do nothing. The left in total is only 25 … On the other hand, (if it is) 20%, we can get there" and exceed it.

© 2022 AFP