IPCC report: to limit global warming, "it's now or never"

How can we reduce our greenhouse gas emissions?

This was the question the IPCC set out to answer in a new report published globally on April 4, 2022. GETTYIMAGE

Text by: Géraud Bosman-Delzons Follow

9 mins

The Intergovernmental Group of Experts on Climate Change (IPCC) published this Monday, April 4 the last part of its 6th report.

Its goal: to assess options for mitigating rising temperatures.

The peak of emissions must be reached within three years to remain below the bar of 1.5°C of warming.

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Another IPCC report?

If you are at this kind of questioning, it is rather a good sign, it is that you have heard about it.

Despite the transfer of Lionel Messi to PSG, which occurred on the same day as the release of the 1st part (August 2021);

or that Russia's entry into the war in Ukraine, four days before the publication of the 2nd part (February 28, 2022).

Each time, the climate found itself relegated to the margins of the media focus.

In terms of contemporary climatology, this report of several thousand pages for each section is a bit of a holy book.

It alerts, every six to eight years only – the time that science advances – on the progression of climate change.

The previous one dated from 2014, with between the two, special reports on specific themes (in 2018 on the consequences of a warming of 1.5°C; in 2019 on emerged lands then on the oceans).

In August, the first part of this 6th report drew up an inventory of climate change and the scenarios for its evolution, from the most catastrophic to the least worst.

The second, last month, shared the effects already on societies and the options for adapting to them: the world is impacted unequally by droughts, floods, rising waters and all the corollaries.

Finally, this third part addresses the key question of solutions to mitigate its progression and its consequences.

In the second half of 2022, a summary document will complete everything.

More optimistic notes

This third part alone mobilized 278 scientists and hundreds of collaborators who studied and compiled 18,000 existing studies.

If this work is the work of scientists, it is intended for political decision-makers.

It is therefore the governments of the member states of the IPCC who discuss it through tens of thousands of comments (60,000 for this section alone!) and who ultimately adopt it.

This component was unanimously approved by forceps on Sunday evening when it was expected two days earlier.

Unprecedented overtime.

A good sign, according to one author of the report, is that governments are taking the issue seriously.

Rarely, the report notes several reasons for hope.

Firstly, while emissions have progressed well - in 2019, they are 54% higher than those of 1990 and 12% compared to 2010 - growth is slowing down: from 2.1% between 2000 and 2009, it increases to 1.3% between 2010 and 2019.

The IPCC also indicates " 

 ": " 

", "

" and has favored "

.

The IPCC also reports that from 2010 to 2019, unit costs have declined steadily for solar power (85%), wind power (55%) and lithium-ion batteries (85%) and their deployment has greatly increased: photovoltaic capacity by 170% and wind power by 70% respectively between 2015 and 2019, thanks to lower costs, public policies and social pressure.

However, despite these spectacular increases, they together represent only 8% of global electricity production.

“

,” rejoices the president of the IPCC, Hoesung Lee.

And to estimate that if the instruments implemented are deployed on a larger scale, “

”.

But the world is doomed if he doesn't react

But these advances are uneven depending on the sectors and regions, the document tempers.

And these few more positive notes are overshadowed by ever more alarmist observations: we are still not on the right track, on the contrary.

“

 , ”denounced UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres when the report was released.

“

,” he scolded, calling it “

this new IPCC report on solutions to limit global warming. 

The IPCC therefore warns that without stronger policies, gas emissions will continue to increase.

A peak in emissions is necessary before 2025 and that they decrease by 43% by 2030 compared to 2019 to stay on course at 1.5°C.

If they continue beyond that, the mercury could reach 3.2°C in 2100, a nightmare.

"

 ," warns Jim Skea, who co-edited the report.

In addition, climate finance to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement "

", the report finds.

Although it increased by 60% between 2013 and 2020, growth has slowed since 2018. And the funds mobilized are between three and six times lower than they should be to limit global warming to 2°C.

Public and private funding for the production of fossil fuels remains higher than that allocated to adaptation and mitigation of climate change.

However, it would cost less in the long term to invest in a more sustainable future than to repair the damage.

“

,” adds Franck Lecocq, one of the authors.

The end of fossil fuels

This third part focused on possible avenues for mitigating climate change.

Mitigation is the actions and activities that both limit the entry of gases into the atmosphere and those that reduce their presence.

This notably involves less use of fossil fuels and techniques, “

”, of carbon capture by sinks, explains the report.

All predictive models to limit warming, whether to 1.5°C or 2°C, require “

”, “

” and “

” greenhouse gas reduction measures in all sectors, scientists warn.

To maintain the course of 1.5°C warming, the use of coal should be completely stopped and those of oil and gas reduced by 60% and 70%, respectively, by 2050 compared to 2019.

”, insists the IPCC.

In addition, this climate ambition implies a significant reduction in other gases, in particular methane, which is much more powerful than CO2: they must fall by 45% by 2050.

Carbon storage, cleaner cities

The transition to a carbon-neutral world will therefore involve all sectors.

Starting with that of energy, which will have to go through “

”: the reduction in the use of fossil fuels, the deployment of energy sources with less emissions and better energy conservation and efficiency.

“

,” notes the report, which recalls that some regions already run entirely on renewable electricity.

But coupling the entire energy system to renewables is another “

”.

To address this, the document lists the “

”: electricity storage, bio fuels, hydrogen electricity, intelligent distribution networks, control of energy demand, etc.

To ensure this low-carbon energy transition, the IPCC is therefore considering - this is the surprise of this 2022 report - the use of carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies, without however recommending them (the experts insist that such is not the role of this body).

These remedies are not yet unanimous because they have not yet been proven and the risk-benefit balance is not yet established.

“

”, assures the IPCC.

This would also make it possible to “ use the

remaining

But, he adds,

”.

We must therefore “

”.

The role of cities is also highlighted as "

", says the IPCC.

In 2019, the gases emitted directly by buildings and indirectly by the cement and steel of constructions were 12 Gt of CO2 equivalent, measured the group of experts, which affirms that 61% (8.2 Gt CO2) of these emissions could be "

".

How? 'Or' What ?

Through less energy-intensive construction, the electrification of transport networks, bringing people closer to their workplaces, the greening of residential areas which are all carbon sinks, etc.

A chapter, for the first time is reserved for "

", as the researchers say, in other words, sobriety.

“

”, summarizes in a press release Priyadarshi Shukla, a co -chairman of this working group.

Finally, “

predict the French researchers who authored the report.

”, taking into account the issue of inequalities between countries and within countries in the design of climate policies.

"

."

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