A bakery in the neighborhood has raised the price.
Isn't such a change becoming familiar to you?
This is because the price of wheat is soaring worldwide due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
The Middle East is particularly affected.
Wheat inventories have been in stock for about a month, which could lead to a food crisis.
I will explain the local situation in detail.
(Tomonori Fujiyoshi, Kazuhiro Yamao, Dubai Branch)
Why is the impact so serious?
Russia and Ukraine are both major grain exporters.
In particular, Russia ranks first and Ukraine ranks fifth in terms of export volume of wheat, accounting for 30% of the world's total.
The Middle East is heavily dependent on both countries for wheat imports.
Wheat is an indispensable import product as a raw material for bread, which is the staple food.
The ratio of imports from both countries is more than 80% in Turkey and more than 70% in Egypt.
However, due to the invasion by Russia, the international index wheat futures price reached its highest level in about 14 years in early March.
Furthermore, due to the delay in imports, supply insecurity is spreading in each country.
What is the specific impact?
Of particular concern is Lebanon in the Middle East.
According to the Lebanese Ministry of Economy and Trade, wheat stock is less than a month away.
Ukraine accounts for about 70% of wheat imports in Lebanon, and after the Russian invasion, imports have stopped and a serious wheat shortage has occurred.
Furthermore, in Lebanon, a large-scale explosion occurred in the capital Beirut in August 2020, damaging the country's largest grain storage.
For this reason, this situation has come to an end without a place to store a large amount of wheat, which is a serious situation.
What is the impact on the lives of citizens?
At the supermarket in Beirut, only the flour shelves were empty.
Shoppers seemed confused, "Flour hasn't gone anywhere since the Ukrainian crisis began."
Also, when I visited the country's largest flour production plant in southern Lebanon, six of the seven storages were already completely empty and the wheat stock was about to run out.
As a result, the price of bread has increased by more than 50% in the past month, and the amount per bag has decreased.
Youssef Maura, 52, who lives with his wife and three children in Beirut, has been worried that he will not be able to eat not only uneaten meat but also bread for the past six months.
"Living has been hard for a long time, but Russia's invasion of Ukraine has made it even worse. I hope this war will end sooner and the situation will improve. People can eat bread, that's all they want. am"
Is it possible to secure an alternative import destination?
The Lebanese government is looking for an alternative wheat import destination to Ukraine, but as its currency plunges, there are many issues such as transportation costs, and can it win the competition with other countries that are also rushing to procure wheat? I'm getting impatient.
Georges Barbari, director of wheat imports at the Ministry of Economy and Foreign Trade, said finding alternative imports is not easy.
"As an emergency measure, we need to find fast, cheap and good quality wheat, but every country is wary and some have stopped exporting wheat for their own stockpiles. Hunger is devastating and the people I can't say that I don't have wheat or flour to eat, so I have to find a supplier as soon as possible. "
Already in a food crisis conflict area?
In conflict areas in the Middle East, the food crisis is further spurred.
In Yemen, the Middle East, where the civil war has continued for more than seven years, agricultural production has fallen and food shortages are serious. It is estimated that the number will increase to more than 160,000.
Furthermore, as 40% of wheat imports depend on Russia and Ukraine, the price of bread, the staple food, has risen further, and there are concerns about the spread of hunger.
What is Yemen's civil life?
The price of bread is soaring due to the shortage of wheat supply in an already difficult life, and it is in a serious situation.
Darwisha Bahees and her family, who live in her capital, Sana'a, are severely malnourished due to inadequate diet as her husband's income becomes unstable due to the civil war.
Of particular concern is Hasan, the youngest of seven children, one and a half years old, who weighs only about 60% of the standard weight and has problems with growth.
The family shares bread only once a day, but the price of bread has doubled in the past year due to the currency collapse and the shortage of wheat supply.
This forces Darwisha to stand on the street and ask people to give him some money to buy bread.
Still, he says, if the price of life-threatening bread goes up, it will be difficult to feed children.
"Children became malnourished because they couldn't find anything to eat and no one could help us. If prices went up further, many people, not just our family, would starve to death. increase"
What about world food security?
Wheat is not the only concern about stagnation in exports from Russia and Ukraine.
According to FAO = Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, sunflower oil accounts for 60%, barley 20%, and corn 10% of the world's exports.
Against the backdrop of the Ukraine crisis, the grain price index for February has been at its highest level since February 2013.
FAO's Director of Markets and Trade, Vobakal Benhasan, warns:
"Especially economically poor countries can be seriously affected, especially those that are not producing enough food due to conflicts and rely on foreign imports. We urge agricultural powerhouses such as the United States, France, Australia and Argentina not to restrict the export of agricultural and food products to the international market. ”
Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which has shaken global food security.
Prolonged fighting can lead to further food crises.