North Korea has conducted 12 missile tests this year.
This is the most frequent occurrence since Kim Jong-un took power.
"South Korea is the only place in the world that is not at all afraid of North Korea's long-range missiles and nuclear weapons," said a foreign correspondent who stayed in South Korea several years ago.
There are also jokes that an article about a surge in real estate prices is more shocking than an article about firing a North Korean missile.
But why was this missile reported in the media in such a fuss?
ICBM What is it that makes the top news for days?
What is the 'red line' that North Korea has crossed?
It seems like something great has happened, but for those who don't know what happened, I've put it together.
ICBM, what is that?
In Korean, an ICBM is an InterContinental Ballistic Missile.
Literally, it refers to a nuclear missile that attacks the enemy across the continent.
It is a missile capable of attacking across continents equipped with a nuclear warhead.
Ballistic missiles with a range of 5,500 km or more fly out of the atmosphere and then attack the enemy's strategic target with a nuclear warhead.
ICBMs, along with strategic bombers and submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), are one axis of strategic nuclear weapons.
In the case of using a mobile launcher, it takes less time to prepare for launch, so it is considered the most powerful strategic nuclear weapon.
Currently, five countries, including the United States and Russia, have ICBMs.
North Korea fired a long-range ballistic missile, believed to be an ICBM, on the 24th.
The Joint Chiefs of Staff said North Korea fired a long-range ballistic missile into the East Sea from the Pyongyang Sunan Airfield around 2:34 p.m.
The altitude was over 6200 km and the flight distance was about 1080 km.
It was fired at a higher angle than the normal angle (30-45 degrees). .
North Korea's ICBM launch is the first in four years and four months since 2017.
What is the new ICBM Hwasong-17?
The ICBM that North Korea has emphasized that the launch was successful is the Hwasong-17, an upgrade from the Hwasong-15 launched in 2017.
The Hwasong-17 type first appeared on October 10, 2020, at a military parade to mark the 75th anniversary of the founding of the Labor Party.
The projectile was 22 to 24 meters long and was mounted on a mobile launch vehicle with 11 wheel axles.
The wheel axle has been increased by two compared to the existing ICBM-class missile Hwasong-15, which had nine wheel axles.
Compared to ICBMs of the United States or China, the projectile length and diameter are larger, so it is called a so-called monster ICBM.
It is known to be capable of simultaneously attacking Washington DC and New York City with two or three nuclear weapons at the same time.
North Korea conducted three test-fires on February 27, March 5, and March 16, the new North Korean ICBM, the Hwasong-17.
It was fired with reduced power on the 27th of last month and the last 5 days, and then shot at the maximum output on the 16th, but the test firing failed.
South Korean and American intelligence officials analyzed that the explosion did not go up more than 20 km.
North Korea usually reports that the new missile was a great success the next day, but the North Korean media, including the Korean Central News Agency, were completely silent at the time.
And on March 24th.
North Korea fired another ICBM.
It claimed that the Hwasong-17 launched by North Korea rose to a peak altitude of 6,258.5 km, flew a distance of 1,090 km, and the flight time was 1 hour 7 minutes 32 seconds.
These specifications were not significantly different from the analysis of the South Korean, American and Japanese intelligence authorities.
A video showing the successful launch of the new Hwasong-17 was released to North Koreans the next day.
top gun? Gangnam style?… Blockbuster promotional video
This video, which even caused a misunderstanding, was broadcast on 'Chosun Central TV'.
With a huge missile in the background, Kim Jong-un appears in a leather jumper and sunglasses like the main character in the movie.
He looks at his watch, takes off his sunglasses, and orders a missile launch with a grim expression.
Like a movie, the command of ‘launch’ was repeated several times, and the drone shooting and flashy cross-editing were reminiscent of a B-grade music video.
This is a launch scene that has never been seen on Chosun Central TV.
Foreign media also paid attention to the video.
The British Guardian introduced that various memes (images and videos popular as material for parody or re-creation on the Internet) appeared related to this video in an article titled 'Kim Jong-un was treated as top gun in North Korean missile reports'.
It was introduced that parody of the Hollywood movie 'Top Gun' (1986) or K-pop 'Gangnam Style' is spreading online, comparing it to 'Top Kim Jong-un' or 'Pyongyang Style'.
British public broadcaster the BBC said, "North Korea has shocked the world by launching an ICBM, while the way the news is broadcast on state TV has also caused embarrassment."
▶[Specialist] The 'North Korean version of the top gun' that surprised even foreign media...
Is this cheating?
In particular, it is significantly different from the video of the Hwasong-15 launch released in 2017.
Unlike the flashy shooting technique, the exposure scene of the actual shooting scene was shorter than in the past.
In the Hwasong-15 launch scene, the launch process was shown for more than two minutes as if to prove that it was launched normally.
However, in this video, the ground and aerial scenes were edited every 20 to 30 seconds, so the actual launch scene could only be checked with a short edited video.
Missile type controversy 'Suspects of plagiarism'
In addition to these suspicions, the military and intelligence authorities concluded that the projectile launched this time was the Hwasong-15, not the Hwasong-17.
In reality, the Hwasong-15 was shot, and the video was sent out by interwoven with the Hwasong-17 launch that was filmed the other day.
There are several reasons for the military and intelligence agencies to have reached that conclusion.
First is the shadow.
North Korea fired the missile at 2:34 p.m.
It is highly probable that the time when the picture of Kim Jong-un was taken was also during the daytime.
Then the shadow should be short, but Kim Jong-un's shadow in the photo is much longer than his height.
If so, it's either early in the morning or late in the afternoon.
The second is the weather.
The video Kim Jong-un is looking at from inside the command post is cloudy, but the weather at the launch scene claimed to be Hwasong-17 is too clear.
There are differences of opinion among relevant experts on this point.
Jang Young-geun, a professor of aerospace and mechanical engineering at Korea Aerospace University, said, "It is difficult to say that the Hwasong-15 was fabricated as a Type 17 based only on such evidence."
There is also an opinion that there are few precedents for North Korea to completely manipulate the so-called 'No. 1 event' hosted by its supreme leader.
Why should I shoot Hwasong-17 even while cheating?
If the analysis of military intelligence is true, why did North Korea even manipulate the video to promote the success of the Hwasong-17 launch?
It can be divided into external reasons and internal reasons.
North Korea is watching the results of the launch of the new ICBM from the outside, but it was a failure, so it should be launched as soon as possible, but the Hwasong-17 is not ready enough to fire again. You probably wanted to let the outside world know that you have the ability to launch new ICBMs.
▶ "The puddle next to Kim Jong-Il University, the roof flew away… Two deaths were reported."
The internal reason is not much different from this.
When test-firing new missiles in most countries, it is common to launch them from places where there are few people because of fears of damage to civilians if the launch fails.
However, North Korea tends to focus more on public relations than on civilian harm.
For this reason, North Korea conducted a test launch of an ICBM at Pyongyang Sunan International Airport, only 10 km north of downtown Pyongyang.
However, the Hwasong-17 type exploded in the air without being able to fly 20 km.
The Ministry of National Defense said in an undisclosed report to the National Assembly that missile fragments may have fallen near Pyongyang.
According to SBS 8 o'clock news reported on the 31st, a high-ranking government official said that missile fragments had damaged major facilities in Pyongyang.
In particular, the Kim Jong-Il Political and Military University is located 9.5 km to the southeast of Sunan Airfield in a straight line and 12 km to the north from Okryugwan.
It was also reported that two people were killed in the explosion.
It is highly likely that the North Korean leadership, who had completely lost face, was bragging that it fired the Type 15, which had a high probability of success, in 8 days, and then shot the Type 17 in an attempt to prevent public dissension.
Of course, the perfection of North Korea's ICBMs has not been verified.
In terms of range, the qualification of an ICBM is sufficient.
However, North Korea has only conducted high-angle launch tests so far.
The normal angle should be 30-45 degrees, but the verification of re-entry technology that goes out of the atmosphere and enters the atmosphere has not yet been verified.
When re-entering the atmosphere, a speed 20 times the speed of sound and attitude control orbit guidance technology and control device are required to prevent being thrown out into the atmosphere.
Even if it enters the atmosphere, it has to withstand frictional heat of around 10,000 degrees, and the key is the heat-resistant alloy technology of the warhead.
However, this has not yet been confirmed.
It does not matter whether the ICBM fired this time is a Hwasong-17 or a Type 15.
Whether it's a Type 15 or Type 17, it is a fact that the ICBM fired this time went farther and climbed higher, and it is a fact that it is technologically advanced compared to the past.
Crossed the 'red line'? How good is it?
In international relations, the red line usually refers to a 'line that should not be crossed' or 'a line that cannot be crossed'.
Articles abounded that North Korea had crossed the 'red line' with this ICBM launch.
Although the red line for North Korea is not drawn as if it were 'short-range missiles, not long-range missiles', the view that nuclear warhead ICBMs targeting the US mainland is usually a 'red line' is predominant.
Former US President Donald Trump previously said, "I don't like to draw a red line, but if I have to act, I do it."
However, there is no mention of 'what' the Redline is.
At a press conference on the 100th day of his inauguration in 2017, President Moon Jae-in specifically mentioned the red line, saying, "I think the Red Line is when North Korea completes an ICBM and mounts a nuclear warhead on it to weaponize it."
At that time, there were reactions such as 'the red line centered on the US', 'abandoning the strategic ambiguity of the red line', and 'what measures to be taken when the red line is violated', etc.
It can be assumed that North Korea itself sees the 'Red Line' as an ICBM launch.
In 2018, North Korea declared itself that it would not conduct nuclear and ICBM test-fires in order to negotiate with the United States.
After North Korea declared a moratorium on nuclear tests and ICBM launches amid an atmosphere of reconciliation between the two Koreas, it has maintained this Maginot Line even in a stalemate in inter-Korean relations.
In any case, it is clear that the officialization of the ICBM launch canceled the nuclear test and the suspension of the ICBM test launch.
President Moon Jae-in also said, "North Korea's leader Kim Jong-un has voluntarily canceled the suspension of intercontinental ballistic missile launch promised to the international community."
2017 vs 2022… Similar to 5 years ago?
President Moon said, "(North Korea's latest launch) is showing a similar pattern to the period of heightened tensions in 2017 as it led from the launch of a medium-range ballistic missile to the launch of a long-range ballistic missile."
On the 25th, the day after the launch, the Rodong Sinmun, the official newspaper of the Workers' Party of Korea, reported the successful launch of the Hwasong-17.
Five years ago, after the launch of the Hwasong-15 ICBM, it drew attention because it was almost identical to the article at the time when it declared the completion of the national nuclear force.
2017 and this year are similar in many ways.
From the inauguration of President Moon Jae-in in May 2017 to November of the same year, North Korea conducted 11 missile launches and nuclear tests.
At that time, North Korea was in international isolation due to its nuclear and missile development.
The UN Security Council has resolved strong sanctions against North Korea.
Security Council Resolution 2397, adopted in response to North Korea's ICBM provocation on November 29, 2017, introduced a 'trigger' clause promising to reduce oil exports to North Korea if North Korea conducts another nuclear test or ICBM launch.
In other words, if the Security Council meeting is held following North Korea's latest ICBM launch, additional sanctions against North Korea will be automatically discussed.
At that time, sanctions by the Security Council were possible because of the estranged relationship between North Korea and China.
However, North Korea took advantage of the 2018 Pyeongchang Olympics to restore inter-Korean relations, and used the visit of our special delegation to connect the U.S.-North Korea summit.
What stands out is the improvement of relations with China.
Chairman Kim Jong-un made a visit to China and succeeded in restoring friendly relations between North Korea and China through the North Korea-China summit.
▶ [Report File] The victory of North Korean diplomacy…
North Korea expands maneuverability amid US-China rivalry
But now the situation is different.
North Korea-China relations and North Korea-Russia relations have changed.
Not to mention improving relations with China, North Korea has sided with Russia, anti-US and anti-Western in the recent confrontation between the camps.
He also publicly expressed his support for Russia in the Ukrainian war.
As North Korea-China train operation resumed in January, it is known that some trends were observed in the resumption of land exchanges between North Korea and Russia.
In an interview with Newsis, Lee Sang-geun, head of the Korean Peninsula Strategy Research Department at the Institute for National Security Strategy, said, "North Korea's high-intensity provocations such as the ICBM launch will strengthen the ties between the ROK, the US and Japan, which are seeking a strong response in response to this. This will happen,” he analyzed.
All ballistic missile launches by North Korea are in violation of UN Security Council sanctions against North Korea.
However, for this reason, it is unclear whether additional sanctions will be discussed at the UN Security Council.
At the Security Council emergency meeting related to North Korea's ICBM launch, 15 countries, including South Korea and the United States, strongly criticized North Korea, but China and Russia said, "Strengthening sanctions will threaten the North Korean people." expressed opposition to
A Perspective on North Korea's 'Norimsu'
There are several perspectives on the purpose of North Korea's current ICBM provocation.
It is a view that analyzes North Korea's ICBM provocation immediately after the launch of the Yoon Seok-yeol takeover committee as an intention to exert influence on the new government's North Korea policy.
It is a strategy to subdue the baseline by heightening tensions ahead of the new government's inauguration on May 10, just like the 'climax tactic' card used every time a new government was launched in the past.
Professor Jang Young-geun said, "It is a preemptive attack on President-elect Yoon Seok-yeol, who mentioned a preemptive nuclear strike while making a strong promise to North Korea."
There is also an analysis of 'attracting attention' from the US.
The recent U.S.-China-Russia tensions in the Ukraine war have led to North Korea being excluded from the US's main concern.
In effect, the missile is intended to attract the attention of the United States and lead to necessary negotiations.
President Biden of the United States has not shown much interest in resolving the North Korean problem, and in fact, the 'strategic patience' of the Obama administration continues.
President Obama did not mention a word about North Korea's fourth nuclear test (January 6) in his last state of the art address on January 12, 2016.
Obama's 'strategic patience' means waiting patiently for North Korea to come out on the road to denuclearization.
The Trump administration, which had been more active in relations with North Korea than the Obama administration, has also turned to the status quo strategy after the 'Hanoi No Deal' in February 2019.
The Biden administration, which came to power next, advocated 'unconditional dialogue' in words, but returned to 'strategic patience' in effect without providing any incentives.
President Biden never mentioned North Korea in his speech to Congress on the 1st of last month.
It is analyzed that there is no reason for the United States to maintain a moratorium in a situation where there is no room for further change from the North's point of view.
Can North Korea give up its nuclear weapons?
In April 2018, it unilaterally declared that it would 'suspend nuclear tests and ICBM test launches'.
It's a promise you made, but it's not an agreement or contract.
Professor Jang Young-geun emphasized, "As North Korea's unilateral declaration that it would give up its nuclear weapons and ICBMs, it should be viewed as a 'withdrawal' rather than a 'disruption'."
Although North Korea's provocations pose a threat whether they are abolished or withdrawn, there is room for a closer look at the change in North Korea's position from the point of view of withdrawal.
Let's take a look at the interpretation of the Chosun Shinbo, an official newspaper of the Chongryon Chosun, representing North Korea's intentions in January.
The Chosun Shinbo asserted, "If you think that Joseon (North Korea) is using a 'cliff-edge tactic' to attract the attention of the United States, it is a miscalculation."
Ahn Jung-sik, a reporter for North Korea at SBS, pointed out, "I cannot believe this claim as it is, but it is worth paying attention to the claim that the confrontation with the United States is a long-term and North Korea's ultimate task is to increase its power."
If North Korea is paying attention to the 'long-term threat from the US', it is analyzed that North Korea's argument that North Korea's continuous development of its nuclear capabilities is not just for negotiating with the US has validity.
It is argued that North Korea will never give up its nuclear weapons, and practical policy toward North Korea must be established on the premise.
▶ [Report File] “We must deal with the long-term threat of the United States”…
North Korea is seeing the situation clearly.
In April, tensions from North Korea are likely to increase.
North Korea is highly likely to prepare for a powerful armed provocation in celebration of the 110th anniversary of Kim Il-sung's birthday on April 15th.
In April, a joint South Korea-U.S. joint exercise, which North Korea strongly opposes, is also scheduled.
Foreign media reported that North Korea is in the process of preparing to resume its underground nuclear test, which it halted since 2017.
Circumstances of the restoration of the closed Punggye-ri nuclear test site have been caught, and there is a forecast that a nuclear test will be resumed within this year.
As you are reading this right now, it is not surprising that North Korea fires long-range ballistic missiles.
[Composition: Reporter Seon-i Jang / Content design: Ji-soo Ok ]