Russia's war on Ukraine... Has the US Central Intelligence Agency failed in its assessments?

Washington

- The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) is subjected to a double assessment that swings between high praise and utter failure regarding its operations and its assessment of the situation in Ukraine.

The CIA succeeded in its accurate predictions of the outbreak of the Russian war on Ukraine since the beginning of the year, and it failed on the other hand, as it expected a much faster and easier battle for the Russian forces compared to what happened during the past month.

In an interview with Al Jazeera Net, Jeffrey Rogge, assistant professor in the Department of Intelligence and Security Studies at the Citadel Military Academy in South Carolina, indicated that the intelligence services painted "what now appears to be an excessively pessimistic picture of Ukraine's ability to resist the Russian invasion, with expectations that Kyiv will fall in Within days. However, I would warn people not to describe this as an intelligence failure, the case is more complex than that."

When Russia attacked Ukraine, US intelligence estimated that an attack on that country could lead to Kyiv falling into Moscow's hands within a few days.

But the Russian army stumbled around the capital as the war entered its second month.

Commentators believe that the Russian forces are bogged down by supply and logistical problems on the one hand, and on the other hand, it is facing unexpectedly stiff resistance from Ukrainian fighters.

Battles and success

The battles inside Ukraine have not yet been resolved, and Russia is theoretically superior to it in all fields, and it excels greatly in armaments in quantity and quality.

Some observers considered that the estimate of 72 to 96 hours for the fall of Kyiv to the Russian forces was quick and very optimistic, especially if it is remembered that it took US forces 3 weeks to enter Baghdad and overthrow Iraqi President Saddam Hussein in 2003.

Russia also has an army of 900,000 soldiers, more than four times the Ukrainian armed forces, which number about 200,000.

Russia has only brought in 200,000 soldiers to fight there so far.

And if any military analyst uses this data, he will realize that we are waiting for a war of attrition between two powers of about the same size, even if one side enjoys technological superiority and many other qualitative advantages, any victory to be achieved will take months .

In an interview with Al-Jazeera Net, Joseph Visnakis, Professor of Intelligence and Security Studies at Coastal Carolina University, indicated that intelligence estimates "reduced the ability of Ukrainians to assemble against a common enemy, and it is worth noting that in the hours following the Russian intervention in Ukraine, Washington offered political asylum. President Volodymyr Zelensky, and this demonstrates the extent to which Washington sees the collective will of the Ukrainian people to fight the Russian invaders."

conflicting testimonies

“It could be that there is a gap in American intelligence gathering that has caused Washington to overestimate Russia’s ability and underestimate Ukraine’s defense capabilities,” said Todd Walters, commander of US forces in Europe, Tuesday.

At a House Intelligence Committee hearing earlier this month, Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines said US intelligence had assessed that Russian President Vladimir Putin underestimated the potential resistance he would face from the Ukrainians before the invasion.

At the same hearing, the head of the DIA, General Scott Perrier, said that US intelligence assessments before the invasion were based on a number of factors, including that the Ukrainians "were not as prepared as I thought they should be, so I doubted." In their will to fight. That was a poor assessment on my part, because they fought with courage and honor and are doing the right thing."

And US intelligence estimates prompted the commander of the Marine Corps, General David Berger, to say two weeks ago, "Computer models were confirming the saying that Russia would win within 72 to 96 hours, and these devices cannot explain why Ukraine continues to resist until now."

intelligence support

The CIA has worked inside Ukraine for years, but as the threat of a large-scale Russian invasion intensified last month, the administration of President Joe Biden withdrew all of the agency's personnel, including its paramilitaries, from the east of that country, press reports confirmed.

Intelligence expert Jeffrey Rogge, speaking to Al-Jazeera Net, stated that the "CIA" has been heavily present in Ukraine since Russia's annexation of the Crimea in 2014, and the ensuing unrest and civil war in the Donbass region of eastern Ukraine.

“American intelligence has spent years preparing the Ukrainians for this battle now underway,” Rogge said. “But even with this training and with all the weapons the United States and other countries are sending to Ukraine, the Ukrainians have not been as effective without continued American intelligence support. There are reports that That Washington provided critical intelligence, such as signals intelligence, images, and locations that allowed the Ukrainians to hit the Russians effectively."

Speaking to Al-Jazeera Net, Visnakis returned to say, "Those trained by the CIA were behind the setbacks that the Russian army had suffered during the past few weeks, especially that unit that was able to repel a large-scale Russian attack with helicopters on Antonov Airport in Hostomil northwest of Kyiv, which occurred during hours of the invasion.

Press reports revealed that the "CIA" has also been training Ukrainian special forces and intelligence officers at a secret facility in the United States since 2015.

Training and support

As part of the training program, the CIA taught its Ukrainian counterparts sniping techniques, how to operate Javelin anti-tank missiles and other U.S.-supplied equipment, how to evade the digital tracking that the Russians used to locate Ukrainian forces, camouflage techniques and covert communications .

And the intelligence operation to supply the Ukrainians with more weapons is so successful that the Ukrainian army uses them all, and now needs reinforcements, which prompted the Western allies to increase the production of such weapons, Vetsnakis told Al Jazeera Net.

For his part, Rove returned to referring to the role of the "CIA" in targeting and killing Russian generals inside Ukraine, and he told Al Jazeera Net, "Here's a good example: Russia lost a large number of generals. Perhaps killing a general or two is a normal thing, but killing this large number. Not just luck or even skill on the part of the Ukrainians, I think the CIA helped locate and target senior Russian military officers."

By supporting Ukraine in intelligence, the United States does not only aim to weaken a rival power, Russia in this case. American intelligence is gaining important practical experiences.

It is also getting what Russian military technology falls into the hands of the Ukrainians.

In turn, Rogue returned to confirm to Al Jazeera Net that "when the Ukrainians recently seized an advanced Russian mobile electronic warfare system, reports stated that it is being transferred from Ukraine to the United States, so that intelligence agencies can dismantle it and get a better understanding of how it works in order to target it or confront it in the future."