The future of Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan seemed very uncertain on Wednesday March 31, his main ally having dropped him a few days before a high-risk censure motion for the head of government.

No prime minister in the country's history has completed his term, and Imran Khan may well meet the same fate.

Accused by his opponents of economic mismanagement and clumsiness in foreign policy, the former national glory of cricket is facing its most serious political crisis since its election in 2018.

The country's economy is in the doldrums with rampant inflation, a weak rupee and crushing debt.

Debates on the motion are due to begin on Thursday and the vote could take place as early as this weekend.

Time for the Prime Minister to do everything to limit defections within his own party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), and to ensure the support of a multitude of small allied formations.

Intensification of TTP attacks

In terms of security, the government must also face an intensification of attacks by the Pakistani Taliban movement TTP (Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan), which announced on Wednesday that it wanted to launch a "Ramadan spring offensive", which will target the security forces. Pakistani. 

This "offensive" of the TTP, which must begin on the first day of the month of Ramadan, either Sunday or Monday, includes "suicide bombings, ambushes, attacks with mines", said the group's spokesman, Mohammad Khorasani.

This announcement followed the claim by the TTP of an attack which killed six Pakistani soldiers, according to the army, in the northwest of the country, bordering with Afghanistan.

Imran Khan was originally scheduled to address the nation in the evening, but the statement was eventually canceled, without further reason.

On paper, the PTI and its coalition partners have 176 seats out of the 342 members of the Assembly.

But on Wednesday, the five members of the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM-P) announced that they would vote for the no-confidence motion with the opposition, which until then held a total of 163 seats.

MQM-P leader Faisal Subzwari tweeted that his party had finalized an agreement with the opposition, led by the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) and the Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N).

A few hours later, one of the heavyweights of the MQM-P, Syed Amin Ul Haque, Minister of Information Technologies and Telecommunications, announced his resignation from the Khan government.

"Alien Conspiracy"   

A dozen PTI deputies have also indicated their intention to censure the Prime Minister.

The PML-N and PPP dominated national politics for decades, with periods of power punctuated by military coups, until Imran Khan forged a coalition by promising voters, among other things, to sweep away decades of corruption.

Some analysts say Imran Khan has also lost crucial support from the military, the key to Pakistan's political power.

Since independence in 1947, Pakistan has experienced four military coups, and at least as many unsuccessful ones, and the country has spent more than three decades under military rule.

If Imran Khan is overthrown, a new government will likely be led by Shehbaz Sharif (PML-N), the brother of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, who was deposed in 2017 for alleged corruption and imprisoned, then released on bail in October 2019 on charges medical.

To break the impasse, Imran Khan could also announce early elections, while the next must take place before October 2023.

On Sunday, during a rally in the capital of tens of thousands of his supporters, the Prime Minister violently attacked his opponents and accused a "foreign plot" of wanting to overthrow him.

"We have been threatened in writing but we will not compromise on national interests," Imran Khan said, without giving details or providing evidence.

With AFP

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