Is Russia's plan to sell exports only in rubles succeed?

MOSCOW

- Russian President Vladimir Putin's announcement that his country will not accept selling gas exports to what he described as "unfriendly" countries except in the local currency (the ruble) sparked a storm of internal and external reactions, and there is no doubt that the decision came amid tight Western sanctions under which Russia suffers, to By freezing its assets in Western countries.

It is clear that with this decision, Moscow has moved to the stage of counter-pressure on European countries in particular, in an attempt to mitigate the impact of the harsh sanctions taken against them, and at the same time save the local currency, which has been subjected to an unprecedented decline as a result of these sanctions.

And the unfriendly countries are those that participated in taking the maximum sanctions against Moscow, namely the United States, the European Community countries and Japan, and Putin gave them until March 31 to convert payments for gas to the ruble, although the Kremlin returned and announced today, Wednesday, that the process of transition to payment The ruble against Russian gas will take a long time, and the new mechanism will not start tomorrow, as was previously announced.

Historic opportunity

And the economist in the fields of oil and gas, Victor Lachon, confirms, in an interview with Al-Jazeera Net, that Moscow is aware of the weaknesses of Western countries regarding the energy component, and the hysteria that a historical economic recession can cause in them, considering that the Western system is not expected to bear its consequences, which It will push its decision-makers to return to negotiations with Moscow, to prevent further deterioration, he said.

He continued, "It is a historic opportunity to stop pegging the national economy to the dollar, and indicated that in the short term, this decision is supposed to lead to an increase in demand for the Russian currency, because buyers associated with Russian gas will simply have no other choice, and accordingly, a certain increase in the value of The ruble is quite possible, which began to emerge immediately after the announcement of this step, although it is unlikely that the ruble will return to the levels of early February.

In the long run, the issue - according to him - is multidimensional. Buyers who are dissatisfied with changes in contract terms may become more insistent in their desire to switch to alternative suppliers.

At the same time, this precedent may serve as an excuse for other countries that provide energy resources to negotiate prices and pay in their national currencies.

His view is shared by Sergey Zavirsky, head of the Analytical Research Department at the Institute for Comprehensive Strategic Studies, who adds that the decision to switch to paying in rubles for gas supplies to "unfriendly countries" came as an unexpected move for the Western world, adding that the idea was previously there, But it could not have been implemented without a deterioration in relations with general Western partners, as well as without a strong shock to the energy market, which is what has already happened now.

Zafirsky, in response to a question, suggested that the Russian decision would likely create an inevitable crisis for Western countries, represented in obtaining the Russian currency, which would mean, logically, resorting to borrowing huge sums in rubles from the Russian Central Bank, which is itself under the yoke of sanctions, which may be raised The issue of eliminating the penalties imposed on him at a minimum.

Huge exports

Russia exports huge amounts of oil and gas to a large number of countries in the world, and their revenues constitute the lion's share of the country's general budget, in addition to the linkage of strategic economic sectors for many of these countries, including Western ones, with Russian exports.

According to the data of the Federal Customs Service, in 2021 Russia exported 229 million and 998 thousand tons of crude oil, with a total of 110.1 billion dollars.

By comparison, in 2020, 238 million and 607 thousand tons of Russian oil were exported abroad (3.7 percent more).

But its cost at the time was $72.4 billion (34 percent less).

In 2021, oil was supplied to 36 countries, while Russia exported oil in 2020 to 39 countries.

Since 2017, China has been the largest buyer of Russian oil, and in 2021 this country bought 70.1 million tons from Moscow (30.6 percent of its total Russian exports) worth $34.9 billion.

The Netherlands ranked second in terms of purchases (37.4 million tons compared to 17.3 billion dollars), while in third place was Germany (19.2 million tons compared to 9.3 billion dollars).

Among the top 10 importers of Russian oil in 2021 were Belarus (14.9 million tons, $6.4 billion), South Korea (13.5 million tons, $6.4 billion), Poland (11.2 million tons, $4.5 billion) and Italy (8.9 million tons, $5.4 billion). ), the United States (7.4 million tons, $3.7 billion), Finland (6.3 million tons, $3 billion) and Slovakia (5.3 million tons, $2.5 billion).

Overall, EU countries accounted for 47% of Russian oil shipments (108.1 million tons, $50.9 billion).

For comparison, in 2012, the EU's share of Russian oil exports was 67%.

Natural gas

Also, according to the Federal Customs Service, natural gas supplies through pipelines amounted to 203.5 billion cubic meters in 2021 (2% more than in 2020) at a value of $ 55.5 billion, of which 48.2 billion cubic meters (23.7%) is Germany’s share of 26.8 billion cubic meters, while Turkey ranked second (13.2%), followed by Belarus (19.8 billion cubic meters, 9.7%).

Denmark (18.4 billion cubic metres), France (11.5 billion), Poland (10.6 billion), Kazakhstan (9.3 billion), Austria (7.8 billion), China (7.1 billion) and the Netherlands (6.7 billion) were among the top ten in terms of supplies.

In total, natural gas was supplied via pipelines to 32 countries.

Liquefied natural gas is exported from Russia by Sakhalin Energy and Yamal LNG, and their income from external supplies increased in 2021 by 8.5% compared to 2020, to reach $7.32 billion.

The largest buyers were Japan (12.8 million cubic meters, $1.7 billion), China (11.4 million cubic meters, $1.4 billion) and France (10.4 million cubic meters, $893 million).

The top 10 importers of Russian LNG included: Spain (6 million cubic meters, $590 million), Britain (5.9 million cubic meters, $477 million), Belgium (4.5 million cubic meters, $391 million) and South Korea (4.2 million cubic metres, $545 million), the Netherlands (3.9 million cubic metres, $402 million), Taiwan 3 million cubic meters, $336 million) and Portugal (1.5 million cubic metres, $167 million).