Russia and Ukraine negotiated a ceasefire on the 29th, and the Ukraine side proposed a new security framework with the countries concerned in place of joining NATO = North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
On the other hand, the Russian side also said that it would significantly reduce military operations around the capital Kyiv, and both sides showed a certain concession, but it remains unclear whether it will lead to a concrete ceasefire.
Regarding the ceasefire negotiations, Yusuke Kitamura's desk in the International Affairs Department said, "The content that is advantageous to the Russian side is conspicuous," and explained that it is not easy to conclude because there is still a big gap in the territorial issue.
These are the claims surrounding the ceasefire negotiations.
(Details are given later in the article).
[Commentary on Kitamura Desk, International Affairs Department]
The debate over "neutralization"
Both Russia and Ukraine have each made certain concessions.
First, the Ukrainian side "responds to neutralization."
Specifically, it means withdrawing the policy of aiming to join NATO, a military alliance in Europe and the United States.
For the Zelensky administration, it is a big concession because of the change in the signboard policy.
Next, the Russian side is "reducing military operations."
Specifically, it has decided to significantly reduce military operations in the capital Kyiv and Chernihiv in the north.
The point is limited to the "northern part".
Combat in the east and south can be rather fierce.
-However, as an alternative to NATO accession, the Ukrainian side is proposing to create a "new security framework".
What is this?
Ukraine does not intend to become a country that cannot counterattack a sudden military invasion like this one.
What countries may participate in the framework are the United States and Canada in North America.
Then there are major European countries such as England, France and Germany.
Besides, Poland is a regional power in Eastern Europe.
It also includes countries with strong military power, such as Turkey and Israel, as well as Russia and China, which are in conflict with the West.
The reason why Ukraine wants us to join so many countries is because we have had a bitter experience in the past.
The "Budapest Memorandum of Understanding" that Ukraine signed with the United States, Russia and the United Kingdom 28 years ago in 1994.
In return for abandoning the nuclear weapons deployed in the Ukrainian territory during the former Soviet era, a memorandum of understanding was signed to guarantee the security of the country.
However, this memorandum was broken by Russia in the 2014 Crimean annexation and the Donbas conflict.
Again, the Ukrainian side complains that Russia, which has invaded the military, is outrageous and that the United States and Britain, which promised to guarantee the security of Ukraine, could not be implemented after all.
I don't know if any of these countries will enter the "new security framework", but I hope that the following international agreement will be effective in the background of Ukraine's mention of so many countries. , A strong desire is put.
Great territorial issues
To be honest, there is a long way to go before an effective ceasefire, that is, the gunshots really stop.
Earlier, I mentioned the points that both sides made concessions, but of course I also saw the points that they could not make concessions.
First of all, it seems that the aim of completely controlling the eastern part of Russia has not changed.
Russia wants to extend the territory of pro-Russian sect, which has already been recognized as a state, to the border between Donetsk and Lugansk.
After that, it will be connected to Crimea.
By doing so, I want to solidify the rule of the east.
However, this clearly violates Ukraine's territorial sovereignty and is completely unacceptable for Ukraine.
In order to stop the fighting as soon as possible, the Ukrainian side has virtually shelved in this ceasefire negotiation, but the territorial problem is the deepest and difficult to solve.
I don't think it's easy to conclude negotiations with a big gap.
Content that is advantageous to the Russian side stands out
-Then, is it likely that it will take time to realize the summit meeting in the future?
Looking at the entire ceasefire talks this time, the content that is advantageous to the Russian side stands out.
The impression that Russia proceeded with negotiations in a superior position.
So Putin never drastically reduced his demands.
The Russian side has also killed an underestimate of several thousand, and an underestimate of more than 10,000.
Withdrawing troops without great results will inevitably reduce Putin's centripetal force.
I think it will take some time for the summit to be realized.
[Specific contents of the negotiation]
In the ceasefire negotiations, the following contents are believed to have been discussed.
The contents are summarized in 5 points.
● Collective security framework to replace NATO accession
First, I would like to talk about the "neutralization" of Ukraine that Russia has sought.
According to the Ukrainian side, instead of joining NATO = North Atlantic Treaty Organization, it proposed a new collective security framework.
Regarding this framework, the Ukrainian side says that it may include the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, France, as well as China, Russia, Canada, Israel, Poland, Turkey, and so on.
On top of that, if the security of the country can be ensured by this framework, it will accept "non-nuclear status" and "neutralization" to abandon NATO membership.
"Neutralization" includes
▼ not to set up foreign military bases in Ukraine, ▼ not
to station foreign troops
▼ to conduct military exercises, etc., subject to consent with the countries concerned. It is said that.
Meanwhile, the Russian side has expressed its intention to consider this proposal.
He explained that the areas covered by Ukraine's security from the countries concerned would be excluded from the areas of eastern Ukraine, which are effectively controlled by southern Crimea and pro-Russian militants.
It will be interesting to see if the Ukrainian side's proposal for "neutralization" will reach an agreement in the future.
● Sovereignty of southern Crimea and eastern Ukraine
Next, the Ukrainian side said it would continue discussions for the next 15 years on the sovereignty of Southern Crimea, which Russia unilaterally annexed eight years ago, during which time it proposed not to use force to resolve the territorial dispute. ..
In addition, the issue of sovereignty in eastern Ukraine, which is virtually controlled by pro-Russian armed groups, will be discussed between leaders in the future.
In this regard, the Russian side has strongly insisted that Crimean is its territory and has already approved the independence of the eastern region, and the Ukrainian side has the most difficult sovereignty to resolve in this ceasefire negotiation. It is a form in which the problems surrounding the issue are effectively shelved.
● Summit meeting
Regarding the summit meeting requested by the Ukrainian side, the Russian side says that it is possible to hold a summit meeting once the agreement is approved at the foreign minister's level.
● Significantly reduce military operations around Kyiv
In connection with the ceasefire negotiations, the Russian side has decided to significantly reduce military operations around the capital Kyiv and in Chernihiv in the north.
The Russian side says this is not a ceasefire, but a confidence-building measure.
The Russian Ministry of Defense has also stated that it will focus military operations on eastern Ukraine.
● Other
In addition, the Russian side does not deny Ukraine's accession to the EU = European Union.
Regarding the contents of the agreement, the Ukrainian side says that it is necessary to hold a referendum and ask the public's will because it is necessary to revise the constitution.
For that purpose, a ceasefire and the withdrawal of Russian troops are necessary.