On February 24, when Vladimir Putin announced the invasion of Ukraine by the Russian army, he justified his action by a desire to "denazify" and "demilitarize" the country.

A month later, on Tuesday March 29, kyiv and Moscow showed for the first time, in Turkey, signs of openness giving hope for a diplomatic outcome.

Several questions were at the center of the discussions during these new negotiations: the "neutrality" of Ukraine, its integration into the European Union or even the future of the territories conquered by the Russians since the start of the war.  

After three hours of exchanges in Istanbul, "first advances" were noted, with a Russian delegation which for "the first time, instead of issuing ultimatums to Ukraine, began to listen to Ukrainian proposals", congratulated on BFMTV on Wednesday morning, Igor Zhovka, the special adviser and deputy head of the Ukrainian president's cabinet. 

Timid hopes showered by the Kremlin.

"At this time, we cannot report anything very promising or any breakthrough. There is a lot of work to be done," the presidential spokesman told reporters on Wednesday. Russian, Dmitry Peskov.

He nevertheless described as "positive" the fact that the Ukrainian side had "finally begun to formulate its proposals in a concrete way and to put them in writing".

"A neutral Ukraine" and "security guarantees" 

The Ukrainian negotiators have indeed formulated a series of proposals touching on certain crucial points of the negotiations.

Among them, the question of the "neutrality" of Ukraine, demanded by Moscow. 

"Adopting this principle of neutrality amounts, at a minimum, for Ukraine to agreeing not to join any military alliance, whether NATO, but also the Collective Security Treaty Organization, a alliance which brings together Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia and Tajikistan", explains to France 24 Marie Dumoulin, former diplomat and director of the Wider Europe program at the European Council for Foreign Relations (ECFR) .

Volodymyr Zelensky had taken a first step, on March 27, during an interview for Russian media, saying he was "ready to accept" this condition from Moscow.

"Security guarantees and neutrality, the denuclearized status of our state" are part of the clauses of the negotiation, he admitted.

"We are ready to accept it (...) This point of the negotiations (...) is under discussion, it is studied in depth", he assured.

In Istanbul, the Ukrainian negotiators reiterated these remarks and even went further, by proposing that their country should not host any foreign military base.

"But in exchange for this concession, kyiv is demanding 'security guarantees' which seem to me to be difficult for Moscow to accept", continues Marie Dumoulin.

To protect itself, Ukraine is indeed asking that several Western countries act as "guarantors" of its security, via an international treaty, and intervene in the event of an attack.

The list of countries in question is long: the United States, France, the United Kingdom and China (the permanent members of the UN Security Council with Russia), Turkey, Germany, Poland or even Israel.

"In other words, it looks a lot like Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty," notes Marie Dumoulin.

“I find it hard to see how Moscow would accept a scenario where Ukraine does not join NATO but can benefit from this foreign aid…”

"This proposal is also a sign of openness on the part of Volodymyr Zelensky, but it is not as resounding an announcement as it seems," she continues.

Admittedly, joining NATO was one of Ukraine's main demands in recent years.

In February 2019, the country had also enshrined in its Constitution its aspiration to integrate the European Union and the military alliance.

"But since the start of the war, kyiv has understood that NATO was not necessarily ready to welcome him into its ranks."

Finally, Volodymyr Zelensky has already announced that this "neutrality" will not be implemented without the prior holding of a referendum, and that the latter would only take place once the Russian soldiers have withdrawn from the country.

"And for the moment, Vladimir Poutine does not seem ready to disengage completely", explains Marie Dumoulin. 

Towards a Ukraine divided in two?

This condition also raises the question of the future of the territories conquered by the Russians since the beginning of the war.

"This may really be the sticking point of the negotiations," said the specialist.

Until then, Russia explained that it had the ambition to "denazify" the whole of Ukrainian territory.

On Friday, a Russian commander created a surprise by announcing "to concentrate, from now on, the bulk of the efforts on the main objective: the liberation of Donbass", this territory where the two separatist "republics" of Luhansk and Donetsk are located - recognized by Moscow on February 22.

"This can be interpreted in two ways: either it shows a loss of power on the part of the Russians, or it shows a change in strategy where Vladimir Putin wants to focus on creating a corridor connecting Donbass and Crimea, and giving him control over the Sea of ​​Azov." 

>> To read also: Russia tightens its grip around the Sea of ​​Azov, "gateway" to the Black Sea

"Whatever the case, and whatever the extent of the territories that Russia manages to control, it will certainly not want to return them and Ukraine will not wish to cede them", she continues. 

On Sunday, Ukraine's intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov raised speculation that Moscow would like a "Korean-style scenario", referring to the division of Korea into two separate countries in 1953. "Russia had come up with something different. 'quite similar in 2019, by proposing to disengage on the entire line of contact in the Donbass and to make it a demilitarized zone over a few kilometers in width", explains Marie Dumoulin.

"This had been refused by kyiv because it would have consisted of freezing the conflict."

For their part, on Tuesday, the Ukrainians proposed to exclude the territories of Donbass from the negotiations.

Regarding Crimea, they propose to freeze its status for fifteen years.

"Again, it can block Moscow's side. For them, Crimea is Russian territory and the debate is closed," explains the specialist.

Volodymyr Zelensky "takes a step", "but does not capitulate"

Faced with these latest talks, the specialist remains skeptical about the illusion of a way out of the crisis.

"In my opinion, at this stage, it is still impossible to envisage a compromise between the two states," she said.

"Ukraine is galvanized by its resistance, which is stronger than expected. It is ready to give in on the question of NATO, but not yet on its sovereignty. Russia, on the other hand, believes that it still has the military superiority to continue the fighting ."

Many points also remain unresolved, in particular on Ukraine's possible accession to the European Union.

"I think that through these proposals, Volodymyr Zelensky wants to show that he is ready to take the first step, both to the international community and to the Russians", sums up the researcher.

And to conclude: "But at this stage, it is not about capitulation".

And if at the end of the negotiations on Tuesday, Russian Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin announced that Moscow would "radically reduce (its) military activity in the direction of kyiv and Cherniguiv", in northern Ukraine , Western observers remain skeptical, seeing it as a redeployment of troops.

And skepticism was all the stronger on Wednesday, when Russia is accused of having bombed a center of the Red Cross in Mariupol and the city and in Chernihiv.

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