BAGHDAD -

The Iraqi parliament is trying to correct the course of what happened in last Saturday's session, when members of some blocs broke the quorum and prevented the passing of the new president of the republic, and this led to the continuation of the political blockage that prevented the formation of the government, despite the passage of 5 months since the early elections.

According to the current data, the Shiite coordination framework (an alliance that includes all Shiite blocs with the exception of the Sadrist movement) confirms that the political impasse still exists between it and the tripartite "Save the Homeland" coalition that brings together the Sadrist bloc led by Muqtada al-Sadr, the Kurdistan Democratic Party led by Massoud Barzani, and the Sunni Sovereignty Alliance, which includes The "Progress" blocs led by Muhammad al-Halbousi and "Azm" led by Khamis al-Khanjar, says Aid al-Hilali, a member of the coordination framework, in his interview with Al Jazeera Net.

Al-Hilali rules out the possibility of holding a presidential election session on Wednesday, which could lead to several scenarios, most notably the intervention of international parties to bridge the rift between the parliamentary blocs.

The number of seats for alliances and parties in the Iraqi parliament (Al-Jazeera)

Post-failure scenarios

Al-Sadr warned against the move to dissolve parliament or declare a state of emergency in the event of the failure of the Wednesday session, but legal expert Haider Al-Sufi ruled out, in his speech to Al-Jazeera Net, the possibility of resorting to one of these two options, and says that parliament can only be dissolved by a two-thirds majority in accordance with Article 64 of the Iraqi constitution, As for declaring a state of emergency, it requires submitting a request from the Prime Minister to the House of Representatives, which will be obliged to vote by its absolute majority (that is, half of the total of 329 +1) deputies, and it will be declared for a period of only one month, subject to renewal.

Al-Sufi’s opinion largely agrees with a member of the Sadrist movement who asked not to be named, and he said in an interview with Al-Jazeera Net that the scenarios for the failure of the presidential election session will put Parliament before one of the options included, either postpone the election until the eighth of next April, which is the date that I set The Federal Court, when it agreed to open the door for candidacy for the position of president a second time, or dissolve the House of Representatives at the request of a third of its members and go towards early elections. without breaking the quorum.

Al-Shammari: The failure of the Iraqi political forces to pass the President of the Republic will enter the country into a constitutional vacuum (Al-Jazeera)

What the member of the Sadrist movement has imposed largely agrees with the opinion of the head of the Center for Political Thinking, Ihsan Al-Shammari, who explained to Al Jazeera Net that the failure of the Iraqi political forces to pass the President of the Republic will enter the country into a constitutional vacuum, and then the parties will find themselves forced to request the President of the Federal Court to express his opinion on the possibility of Re-election or acknowledgment of the parliament's failure to elect the president, as declaring a state of emergency is unlikely, and it is part of the process of pressure exerted by political forces on boycotting parliament sessions.

Al-Salihi: The presence of "Extension" deputies on Wednesday's session is accompanied by the Triple Alliance's approval of demands made by the movement (communication sites)

Independent Battle

The Iraqi Federal Court stipulated a two-thirds majority vote of parliament members (i.e. 220 deputies out of a total of 329) to pass the election of the president of the republic, and this number may seem difficult because the coordinating framework has about 134 deputies, while the tripartite alliance has more than 175, and therefore the two parties want to woo the independents to reach One of them reached the threshold of 220 deputies.

In this context, the representative of the extension movement, Nissan Al-Salihi, said in her speech to Al-Jazeera Net, that the position of "Extension" is clear and announced, which is to attend the session and not break the quorum, given that this was accompanied by the approval of the Triple Alliance on a list of demands submitted by the movement, which will serve as understandings related to joint work spaces. .

Al-Salihi points out in her speech that the general atmosphere pressures all MPs, especially the independents, because all parties without exception put pressure on the representatives, including the public, and this is represented either by carrot or intimidation, and “I do not think that there is an independent or non-independent MP outside the circle of pressure.” According to her.

Al-Salihi ruled out presenting the large blocs with an alternative vision if Wednesday’s session failed, because the coordination framework seeks to force the Triple Alliance to return to the negotiating table with it, and the Triple Alliance seeks to proceed with its project without the coordination framework, but both did not propose an alternative plan if the other succeeded in his endeavor.

Who is responsible?

And the Iraqi political forces are likely to postpone the parliament session again, as it will provide a space for consensus between the parties objecting to the candidates for the presidency, given that everyone is not ready to take responsibility for the chaos that may afflict the country soon, says Aid al-Hilali, a member of the Shiite coordination framework.

Al-Hilali points out that when each party insists on its opinion and its candidate, it is possible for the Federal Court to take over the administration of the country for a full year, after which preparations will be made for new early elections.

For his part, writer and journalist Amer Ibrahim sees in his speech to Al Jazeera Net that the legislative obstacle to achieving a quorum is the Federal Court's requirement to achieve two-thirds (220 deputies) as a condition for electing the President of the Republic, so the problem will remain, and it is expected that there will be consensus among Shiite forces by granting executive positions or Legislative, despite its difficulty this time due to the predominance of the personal factor in the relationship between the leaders of the coordination framework and the tripartite alliance.

Ibrahim believes that the option of resorting to early elections may be unrealistic at the current stage.