In view of the poor performance of the Russian army in Ukraine

The threat of nuclear conflict is greater than during the Cold War

• Russian forces resorted to the destruction of installations and residential buildings in Ukraine.

  Reuters

• Putin put his nuclear forces on standby as his war in Ukraine began.

  Father

• Trump abrogated the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty.

  Reuters

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It seems that the danger of nuclear war is now greater than it was during the Cold War, because Russia under President Vladimir Putin is much more weak than the Soviet Union was, and accordingly, the possibility of using nuclear weapons is now greater than during the Soviet Union, when it was At the height of his power during the two presidents, Nikita Khrushchev and Leonid Brezhnev.

Moscow maintains its status as a great power by possessing the capacity for mass destruction.

Putin's resonant threats

Putin made loud threats early in his war in Ukraine, put his nuclear forces on standby, and said he was determined to deter interference in his military campaign.

Putin's threats were criticized by many as mere verbal ones at the time, but since then the ill-planned invasion has begun to falter, revealing that the Russian military is weaker than everyone thought.

indifference of the West

Political leaders in the West now talk indifferently about supporting regime change in Russia or the imposition of a no-fly zone over Ukraine, which would require shooting down any Russian aircraft and attacking any anti-aircraft missile battery inside Russia.

These threats may not always be serious, but they are for the neurotic Kremlin.

Given that much of the Russian military is involved in Ukraine for the foreseeable future, Putin will resort to 1,000 or 2,000 of his strategic nuclear weapons to balance NATO in Eastern Europe.

Surprisingly, the West's fears of the late Iraqi President Saddam Hussein that he might use weapons of mass destruction, which he did not originally have in 2003, were greater than their fears that Putin might use nuclear weapons these days.

The danger is not only real, but escalating at a time when President Putin's military adventure in Ukraine appears to be one of the biggest miscalculations of the past 100 years.

It became clear that Russia simply did not have the power to conquer and subjugate a country of 44 million people, backed by most of the world's nations.

But what makes this crisis even more dangerous is that the Russian disaster in Ukraine was entirely predictable, even inevitable.

And what would happen if the same miscalculation was adopted when it came to the proliferation and use of nuclear weapons?

Cold War II

The second Cold War against Russia looks much more dangerous than the Cold War of the 1940s to 1989. For nearly 40 years, the threat of nuclear war, Mutual Assured Destruction, hangs over the world and has been a constant preoccupation with it.

Nuclear bunkers were built to protect the government and military elite.

American schools have conducted exercises to tell teachers, students and parents what to do in the event of a nuclear strike.

The plot of "Doctor Strangelove", which revolves around a deranged American general who orders an attack on the Soviet Union, is very realistic.

Forget about the danger of nuclear weapons

However, since the end of the Cold War, the threat of annihilation by nuclear weapons has been largely forgotten, although such weapons still exist.

No one paid any attention to the nuclear threat, and long-negotiated agreements to regulate the deployment of nuclear weapons and military action were ignored or invalidated.

The United States abolished the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty in 2002, and Russia suspended the Convention on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe in 2007. Three years ago, former US President Donald Trump abolished the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, while military-military contacts aimed at preventing Confrontation, by chance or error, between the United States and Russia has become few.

This great disregard for the disappearance of measures designed to prevent a nuclear clash stems from the fact that most people assumed that the threat of war between the United States and Russia, who together possess 93% of the world's stockpile of nuclear weapons, had disappeared.

Looking at the past, this confidence seems strange, especially since the friction between the two superpowers has increased significantly in Ukraine since 2014, while in Syria, American planes killed Russian soldiers.

The Russians asked, what is the goal of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) if it is not directed against them?

Russia is far from victory

Putin endangered his personal existence and his regime by launching an invasion that would have succeeded only if the Ukrainian people yearned for the "Russian liberators."

But almost all of the Russian units, which were stationed around Ukraine about two weeks ago, are now in the war, and Russia is still a long way from winning.

Russia may succeed in capturing Kyiv, and other cities, but through the heavy use of artillery, and even this outcome is not certain.

Although these sieges continue around Ukrainian cities, people all over the year will see images of dead and wounded civilians who fell as a result of Russian bombing as they try to flee their homes.

Slip into nuclear conflict

Suppose that the Russian army eventually gained control of the cities.

It has to fight and engage in guerrilla war in rural areas.

Given that the Russians do not possess the soldiers needed to quell popular rebellions, and have no local allies, they may have to resort to terror, destroying towns and villages from land and air and turning their inhabitants into refugees.

These atrocities could fuel the West's desire to impose more sanctions against Russia and provide more aid to the Ukrainian resistance.

In Russia, Putin will seek to play the national card and claim that Russia is now under attack by its staunch enemies bent on its destruction.

With other powers increasingly embroiled in Ukraine's war, Putin is becoming more desperate, and the conflict is increasingly likely to descend into the use of nuclear weapons.

• Political leaders in the West are now talking indifferently about supporting regime change in Russia or imposing a no-fly zone over Ukraine, which would require shooting down any Russian aircraft and attacking any anti-aircraft missile battery inside Russia.

• Putin endangered his personal existence and his regime when he launched an invasion that would have succeeded only if the Ukrainian people yearned for the “Russian liberators.”

But almost all of the Russian units, which were stationed around Ukraine about two weeks ago, are now in the war, and Russia is still far from winning.

• President Putin's military adventure in Ukraine appears to be one of the biggest miscalculations of the past 100 years.

It became clear that Russia simply did not have the power to conquer and subjugate a country of 44 million people, backed by most of the world's nations.

Patrick Cockburn ■ British writer

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