“There is widespread apprehension that the war in Ukraine will get worse before it gets better,” according to an American magazine, a European official who spoke on condition of anonymity. Although there is little consensus about what the future may hold for Ukraine, the American magazine Foreign Policy extracted 5 scenarios. potential for the development of this conflict.
In a report on the subject, the magazine says that it spoke to more than 10 US and European officials, as well as a number of senior military analysts and regional experts, about their assessment of the outcome of the current war in Ukraine.
The magazine pointed out that many were quick to point out that the war by its nature is unpredictable, but as the war on Ukraine continues and enters its second month, there are expectations of 5 possible scenarios, and the final outcome of the war may include a mixture of those expectations, according to the magazine.
Scenario One: A dead end and more blood
After a month of intense hostilities, it seems that a clear victory for either side is out of reach, which has made Western analysts and officials express their fear that the worst may be yet to come, as Russian President Vladimir Putin shows no signs of his intention to retreat or stop the bombing. Russian indiscriminate targeting of Ukrainian cities and civilian and military objectives.
Although Russia has sent nearly 200,000 troops to Ukraine, it has been bogged down by incompetence and fierce Ukrainian resistance, and after a month of conflict it has seized only swathes of territory along Ukraine's eastern border and one major Ukrainian city (Kherson on the southern coast), although The US Defense Department said on Friday that Russian forces had lost control of parts of that city.
According to a US official, it is unlikely that Russia will be able to salvage its military operation and is now busy figuring out how to resupply its forces and bring in reinforcements, which could make the counterattack in Ukraine more difficult. Both sides achieve dramatic gains on the ground, but they seek to exhaust the other side in a real war of attrition.
But how will the war of attrition end?
This is what Michael Kaufman, an expert on Russian military affairs at the CNA think-tank, answers: “The honest answer is that the matter is not settled. The balance will tilt in favor of Ukraine because it has a stronger determination and Russia does not have enough manpower to occupy the country."
Scenario Two: Partition of Ukraine
In a speech last Friday, Sergey Rudskoy, head of the Operations Directorate of the Russian General Staff, said that “the main objectives of the first phase of the operation have generally been achieved” and that the primary objective of the Russian military operation will now focus on “liberating Donbass.”
Last Sunday, General Kirillo Budanov, head of Ukraine's Defense Intelligence, warned that Moscow might seek to divide his country into occupied and non-occupied regions and "create North and South Korea in Ukraine."
In this context, the magazine quoted another European official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, as saying that what Ukrainians fear today is the fall of the besieged city of Mariupol in southeastern Ukraine into the hands of the Russians, which is expected to take place within a week, giving Russian forces a strong foothold that enables them to During which he pushes north and engages forces coming south from Kharkiv, adding that the Russians “as soon as they get the lands of Donbass and Donetsk, they will start negotiating, because they have already lost a lot of soldiers,” and such a move could leave the Ukrainian forces operating in the so-called area of operations of the joint forces ( JFO) in eastern Ukraine besieged.
This would prevent besieged Ukrainian forces from consolidating Ukrainian cities in the west, such as Kyiv, and allow Russia to push for more autonomy outside the so-called people's republics of Donetsk and Luhansk, which Putin used as a justification for war. The region would give Putin a narrative to sell to the Russian public.
The magazine quoted officials and experts as saying that Ukraine is likely to launch a fierce insurgency rather than surrender to the Russian occupiers, especially after the end of a fierce war that may lead to the exhaustion of Russian forces completely, and the Ukrainian public, which now sees victory as a possible outcome, is unlikely to agree with the An early peace agreement gives Russia parts of their country's territory.
Third scenario: decisive victory
After a month of Russia's military blunders and deficiencies in the quality of its forces, supplies, equipment, and logistics, several defense and security experts in the West have come to the conclusion that a large-scale Russian victory - the complete occupation of Ukraine and the fall of the pro-Western Ukrainian government - is highly unlikely.
But this does not necessarily mean that a complete victory for Ukraine is also a possibility. The Ukrainian army has impressed experts with its determination and superior tactics, but it still lacks numbers and weapons, and Putin has not hinted that the heavy losses of the Russian army - let alone the humanitarian disaster caused by his invasion would prompt Moscow to withdraw completely.
"We can imagine Russia's inertia or at least no progress, but that doesn't mean they will be defeated militarily," says Samuel Sharap, an expert on Russian security issues at the Rand Corporation.
“There is a possibility of a scenario in which Putin cannot win, but he also refuses to lose,” says William Taylor, a researcher at the American Institute of Peace and former US ambassador to Ukraine. I wouldn't rule it out," he said, adding that "there is a high possibility that the Russian military will not be able to solve its main problems" which could cause it to collapse, according to Taylor.
Fourth scenario: a peace agreement
With an overall military victory seemingly elusive for both sides, the most likely way to end the war is through some kind of peace agreement, which the newspaper quotes an expert as saying, "This conflict is likely to end with a negotiated settlement, but the question is when and on what terms?" .
"There may be a ceasefire here and there, and we may see the signing of a tactical ceasefire, but it won't last," says Dmitri Alperovich, a cybersecurity expert at the Silverado US Policy Center.
Fifth Scenario: Unexpected events
This scenario, according to the magazine, is inherently the most difficult to predict, but could have a profound impact on the course of the war, such as the use of chemical or nuclear weapons, or regime change in Moscow.
Former senior military officials tell Foreign Policy that Russia could use chemical weapons on the battlefield as an act of desperation, due to the military's willingness to target civilians.
Another possibility that US and European officials fear is a scenario in which Russia uses a low-yield nuclear weapon in Ukraine, but officials who spoke to Foreign Policy stressed that such a scenario is still highly unlikely, but they pointed out that Western defense planners still have to plan for all Possible contingencies, and the magazine noted that any nuclear attack could alter the course of the war and fundamentally alter the West's response, potentially putting NATO in a state of open war with Russia.
The final shock that could radically change the course of the war is the removal of Putin from power, although most experts agree that this is unlikely at this point.