On the ninth of this March, a supersonic missile originating from India penetrated the Pakistani airspace and crashed near the city of Myan Chanu in the Khaniwal region of Pakistan. Could this have triggered a nuclear war?
asks an American newspaper writer.
In an article entitled "How the misguided Indian missile could have sparked a nuclear war" in the American magazine "National Interest", writer Stara Noor said, "Although the specific details of the accident will not become clear until after forensic analyzes are carried out With a thorough investigation, the news of India's launch of a supersonic cruise missile on its nuclear rival Pakistan has shocked many policymakers who are aware of the potential consequences of such an accident."
The writer mentioned that the Indian Ministry of Defense officially confirmed two days after the accident that the missile was launched "accidentally" during routine maintenance, and the ministry's statement confirmed that the government took the accident seriously, and ordered the formation of a high-level investigation committee to determine its circumstances.
She added that Pakistan's response to this incident - which was characterized by coldness - was lauded as "mature" and "responsible".
However, the writer says that Islamabad demanded a joint investigation, because what happened could have led to very serious consequences.
The writer - who works as a senior researcher at the Center for Space and Security Studies in Islamabad - warned that the timing of the crash of this Indian missile inside Pakistan is suspicious;
It happened just one week after the Pakistan Navy discovered an Indian Navy submarine in its exclusive economic zone.
She said that this raises serious concerns about the intentions of the Indian military leadership, noting that it is fair to say that there is no system that is 100% reliable, as accidents can occur for unexpected reasons, but the Indian government's handling of this problem in general has been "unreasonable." Very responsible."
To explain what I went to, the writer says that the Indian authorities did not bother to inform the Pakistani side immediately, which raises questions about the Indian command and control system, the strategic culture of this country, and its ability to deal with such sensitive technology, according to the writer.
She added that New Delhi did not provide Pakistan with information about the type of this "stray" missile, but the available information matches the specifications of the Indian "BrahMos" missile, which is a surface-to-surface cruise missile.
She pointed out that India classifies the "Brahmos" as a conventional missile, but in fact it is capable of carrying nuclear warheads as well, according to the writer.
The writer adds that regardless of the aforementioned classification, Pakistan is likely to view any missile coming from India as a nuclear missile in the current fraught security environment, as it is impossible to discern what the missile is carrying before it explodes.
With India recently leaving ambiguity surrounding the extent of its commitment not to the first use of nuclear weapons and with its manipulation of the idea of preventive targeting of the counter force, according to the writer, Pakistan could have considered this missile a preemptive strike from New Delhi, especially in light of the current relationship between the two countries.
It is necessary, says the author, to determine if the cause of this accident was a failure in safety standards or a security gap.
She stated that the initial reports of the Air Defense Operations Center of the Pakistan Air Force indicated that this missile was launched from an Indian air base under the Western Air Command in Sirsa area, Haryana, and was detected at an altitude of 40,000 feet, which suggests the possibility that it was launched from the air. .
India's missile tests are mostly conducted at the Pokhran test range in Rajasthan or the "integrated test range" (ITR) at Chandipur (off the coast of Odisha on the Bay of Bengal), but the nature of the accident raises concern over the Indian claim of an accidental maintenance error, and suggests a complacency. Possible or gross violations of safety protocols by relevant authorities.
The launch of this missile also posed a serious threat to civil aviation, according to the writer, as many commercial flights, especially Qatar and Saudi airlines, were flying in this area at the time of the missile launch, noting that the Indian government could have issued an emergency notice to the incoming aircraft to avoid a disaster. air potential.
The writer pointed out that this incident also puts a question mark on the strength and scope of the current confidence-building measures between India and Pakistan, as the 2004 Hotline Agreement was established for this very purpose - that is, to inform the two parties to each other of any emergency that may lead to any unintended crisis - but India did not take this necessary measure in this case.
Indian missile test (European News Agency)
The writer highlighted that the nuclear responsibility is based on the element of rationality, noting that given that the military events that occurred between the two sides in 2019 and resulted in the capture of an Indian pilot, the Indian government - led by extremists from the nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party - to show a chauvinistic spirit, as Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has threatened to carry out a "massacre" if Pakistan does not return the captured pilot.
Accordingly, Pakistan has - according to the writer - an additional cause for concern.
It fears that the element of rationality is no longer what controls the decisions of Indian leaders.
The writer accused the Indian army of having a history of carrying out terrorist activities with the aim of implicating Pakistan, citing as an example the involvement of Lt. Col. Shrekant Prasad Purohit in helping to carry out terrorist attacks such as the 2007 Samjhauta Express bombing and the Malegaon bomb explosion. 2008.
Regardless of whether the missile launch was accidental or intentional, the author sees this incident as a stark reminder that South Asia remains a nuclear flashpoint with the potential for military events to degenerate into nuclear war, as it exposes the disproportionate focus on Pakistan alone, and blatant neglect India's poor nuclear security record is blamed on Western scientists and their governments alike, according to the author.