- What Sweden is doing would be important, but it would not stop Finland from applying if Sweden decided to stay out, says Teija Tiilikainen, head of the European Center for the Elimination of Hybrid Threats in Helsinki and professor and researcher in European security policy at the European University Institute in Florence, Italy.
After Russia began the large-scale invasion of Ukraine, public support for membership has risen in Finland, from about 20 percent to 50-60 percent, several surveys show.
The NATO issue is discussed in several places
- I think that this (the war in Ukraine) has changed a lot in the Finnish security policy environment and Finnish thinking, says Tiilikainen.
The Finnish government is currently reviewing the country's security policy situation and will present a new report to the Riksdag, which is intended to lay the foundations for the discussion on NATO.
- The process should be completed in the spring, and within that process, the NATO issue will also be assessed, says Tiilikainen.
In practical terms, could Finland submit a NATO application before the summer?
- I think it could be possible.
But then there are also other things that affect that process, says Tiilikainen.
Sweden's decision affects
She highlights the current NATO members' view of admitting new members at the same time as there is war and Sweden's position on the issue as examples.
Because even if Sweden's position is not decisive, it is important for Finland, the researcher emphasizes.
- It is important for Finland, for public opinion as well as the political parties, to be able to make a decision similar to Sweden on the NATO issue.
And that this process can be coordinated, if possible, due to the bilateral co-operation in defense policy between Finland and Sweden.
If Sweden joins the alliance, and not Finland, it would significantly complicate Finland's security policy situation, Tiilikainen believes.