After more than a month of a heavy conflict in which different parties participate, the war in Ukraine has not yet revealed its full secrets, nor has it ended, nor even tended to one side at the expense of the other, only the battles are intensifying day by day.
While Russia is leading a fierce and continuous attack, propelled by one of the most powerful armies in the world, the Ukrainian army, which is the weakest and least numbered party in that equation, surprised everyone with its steadfastness, and succeeded in obstructing the progress of the Russian forces thanks to Western weapons that prevented Moscow from imposing air control over Ukraine's skies. It has kept the capital, Kyiv, from falling, at least for now.
And the longer the days of the war went on, the higher its costs and material and human losses, and the more and more complicated its calculations were, to the extent that the battles are now concealing several wars within one war. Russia is fighting on the one hand to prevent NATO from reaching its western borders, and on the other it aims to revive The glories of the memory of the recent past among the peoples of the old Soviet Union, while Ukraine is waging a war on behalf of Europe to break the thorn of the enemy that is slowly swallowing up the countries of the East European, while the United States is striving to destroy Russia from the gateway to the economy, and embroil it in a long war of attrition that is made more difficult by sanctions. With the aim of re-correcting the course of history, by containing Russia, and strengthening American influence within the old continent.
However, in addition to the political consequences of the war, there are other, no less important consequences related to the desire of each party to market its armed arsenal with the aim of increasing its sales, as happened previously in Syria, when Moscow exploited the war there to lure customers with the effectiveness of its fire, which ultimately reflected on an increase in sales. The demand for Russian weapons exceeded $26 billion in 2016, the highest level it reached in 1992. Today, Washington sees this war as a very appropriate opportunity to persuade many European countries, especially to buy their military products, in preparation for an unstable tomorrow.
Russian tank cemetery
With the progress of the war, Ukraine's hopes of joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization "NATO" began to dwindle, contrary to what it was seeking before its beginning, as it considered this a strategic goal that would ensure protection from Moscow's expansionist goals, but things did not go as the Ukrainians wanted.
On the other hand, Ukraine appears to be on its way to an era of forced, prolonged neutrality, the new reality imposed by Russian President Vladimir Putin in his war, whatever the outcome of the war in the end.
Russian van guard is permanently delayed by Ukrainian furniture (2S9), rocket artillery (BM-21, BM-27) and small mixed 🇺🇦 mechanized elements (T64, BRDM, BMP) pic.twitter.com/8eSWGZ416L
— Franz-Stefan Gady (@HoansSolo) March 10, 2022
On the ground, Moscow faced increasing military challenges that it might not have expected, because the Russian forces that were mobilized for the battle, and their number, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, were estimated at 280,000 soldiers, led by 2,840 tanks, i.e. an average of 3 Russian tanks for every Ukrainian tank, unlike Russia also outnumbers its opponent in the number of combat aircraft at approximately the same rate. These forces have not yet succeeded in imposing their air control, nor have they achieved their goals on the ground.
Contrary to its early expectations, perhaps, Moscow did not find itself faced with only Russian-made Ukrainian air defense weapons, with a rudimentary resistance.
In fact, it soon became clear to everyone that Russian equipment was effectively in a fateful confrontation with modern Western weapons, no less deadly.
The remains of Russian soldiers on the battlefields bore a clear Western imprint, thanks to the American armor-destroying Javelin missiles, along with their British counterpart, "Nlaw", which are light weapons carried by Ukrainian soldiers on their shoulders, which require only 15 seconds to destroy the most advanced Russian tanks, and their range reaches to about 5 kilometres.
As the battles progressed, the United States took advantage of the opportunity and announced sending 2,000 of those missiles to Ukraine, along with 6,000 of the Swedish-made AT-4 anti-armor system, and then the most important deal related to the American Stinger anti-aircraft system, which It tells an interesting chapter on the confused performance of the Russian Air Force in the war on Ukraine. While the Russians said that they finished off the Ukrainian Air Force in the first hours of the fighting, and delivered devastating strikes to the Ukrainian Air Force and Air Defenses, the war revealed the error of these allegations. The most fragile Ukrainian aviation kept flying, In contrast to the more ferocious Russian aircraft, which avoided low flights over Kyiv for fear of being targeted.
In addition to anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles, the United States provided Ukraine with a fleet of unmanned aircraft, more than 100 aircraft, which operated alongside Turkish Bayraktar-class drones, with which the Ukrainian army carried out successful and unexpected attacks during the first days of the war.
While the official declarations exchanged about the losses of the conflict cannot be trusted, the images reveal that the Russian army lost many combat aircraft, helicopters and drones, along with its heavy equipment, to Western weapons, in a disappointing repetition of the scenario of the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan more than three decades ago.
Russian non-lethal weapons
All previous indications indicate that Russia is facing great difficulty in advancing on the ground, as the second most powerful armies on Earth according to the classification of "Global Fire Power", which spends annually on defense a budget of 60 billion dollars annually, has not yet been able to outperform its Ukrainian rival, which does not exceed Its budget is estimated at a maximum of $4 billion annually, and while the West propagates the narrative that it was the aid it provided that helped turn the equation on the ground, the mystery of the Russians' lackluster military performance in Ukraine remains too large to be explained by Western aid alone.
While the American intelligence initially estimated that Russia would launch a deadly attack by land and air, and that its army would adopt a strategy of using maximum force, because prolonging the fighting would bring Moscow greater costs and broader risks, and that it would try to bring down Kyiv quickly before the western extension reached Ukraine, the first weeks revealed From the fighting, these calculations were wrong. It seemed that Russia was not ready at first to put its most powerful equipment into that war, whether the advanced planes that did not leave their runways, or the world’s most modern tanks, T-14 Armata, which were absent from the battlefields, and perhaps underestimated. Moscow, with the capabilities of the Ukrainian army, neglected to send its most powerful weapons ever, which caused it to appear in a pale way different from what the world knew about it in Syria, for example.
The crisis did not stop there, as military experts documented, according to Reuters, sufficient evidence of the lack of coordination of the Russian Air Force with the formations of the ground forces, as many formations of the Russian forces were sent forward beyond the reach of their air defense cover.
In the end, this chaos painted a different scene, as the Russian military vehicles deviated from their specific goals, to remain stuck in the roads, either broken or damaged, in an image that reflected a reality that astonished Moscow's opponents before its friends.
Faced with this shock, Russia announced for the first time in the field the use of hypersonic missiles several times, which belong to a new family of weapons that President Putin says are "indomitable", in a desperate attempt to control the power equation on the ground.
In this context, a London-based Russian think tank believes that the poor Russian military performance is due to the lack of good scanning of targets, which made the hiding Ukrainian missile batteries work efficiently against all targets within sight, and continue to support the steadfastness of the Ukrainian army against the Russian invasion. Who has not yet succeeded in invading Ukraine.
net gain
At the level of military propaganda, then, it can be said that the Ukraine war has so far caused a decline in the reputation of Russian equipment and Russian military power, and that unless Moscow pushes for more advanced equipment, accompanied by a clearer strategy, its reputation as a supplier of weapons could be seriously damaged.
In contrast, the United States appears to be on its way to achieving some spoils by selling more arms to its European partners.
In this context, the SIPRI Peace Research Institute - one of the most reliable research centers in tracking and monitoring the industry and arms sales in general - reveals an increase in armament expenditures in Europe even before Russia invaded Ukraine by 19%, which is confirmed by the report issued by the European Defense Agency (European Defense Agency). EDA), noting that the European Union countries spent nearly 200 billion euros on defense affairs during 2020. These numbers are now likely to increase, or even double, in light of the new European decisions to increase arms expenditures, and to oblige European peoples to pay additional dollars in taxes in order to increase expenditures defensive.
These funds will be poured into the pockets of international armaments companies, led by five major American companies that account for 37% of the global armaments market.
Global stock exchange data indicate that the shares of the American company, Raytheon Technologies, which manufactures “Stinger” missiles, rose by about 16%, along with the American company “Lockheed Martin”, which makes Javelin anti-tank missiles, by 3%, and the same applies to Saab. The Swedish manufacturer of the "Nlaw" anti-armor missiles, which has turned into an obstacle to the advance of Russian forces into the heart of the capital Kyiv, and experts expect that the shares of defense companies will reach record levels, after the increase in demand for weapons, in several different countries.
Ukrainian soldier walking along a trench with a light anti-tank weapon (NLAW)
In addition to the major giants in the field of armaments, some emerging powers can hope to achieve some gains, especially Turkey, whose defense industries have gained a good reputation thanks to the Bayraktar unmanned aircraft.
In addition to Turkish weapons, Israel considers itself one of the hidden parties benefiting from the ongoing conflict. The Hebrew newspaper, Haaretz, says that the shares of Elbit Systems have risen by 18%, just two days after the start of the Ukrainian war. Occupying approximately 3% of global sales.
At the heart of every war, regardless of its parties, its aims and its results, there are endless lists of casualties, and in return there is always a small list of favors and beneficiaries.
With every extra day of war and fighting, the coffers of the death dealers are filled with more money, especially when the customers are from rich countries that feel the danger.
As for European citizens, they will obviously have to be prepared to forgo some luxury as their governments prepare to move money from welfare and health funds into the accounts of arms companies.