Putin always understood the Ukraine issue as a geopolitical one, at least that's how he portrayed it.
It has suffered its first defeat on this front, as this week's summits in Brussels have shown.
There were tactical differences, but broadly speaking, NATO, the EU and the G7 remained united.
Above all, Putin is getting more of what he actually wanted to reduce: more Alliance soldiers and weapons on the eastern flank, more American soldiers in Europe.
Now even Russian gas is being replaced with American.
Putin wanted to drive the United States out of Europe.
Instead, he is anchoring them more strongly on the continent than at any time since the end of the Cold War.
All of the strategic territorial gains that Russia had made over the past few decades, from energy to RT, he has gambled away with his ill-considered war of aggression.
Combination of unfavorable factors
Not even in Ukraine itself can he be sure of victory.
A few weeks ago it was hard to imagine that the Ukrainians would now be able to retake cities and areas.
At the moment, a war of attrition seems more likely than another Russian advance, although the country's military capabilities should not be underestimated.
Putin's weakness lies primarily in the combination of several unfavorable factors: operational difficulties, Western sanctions, unrest among the elite.
Nevertheless, the prospects for Ukraine remain difficult.
Zelenskyy didn't achieve much in Brussels this time, which is also due to the fact that the West has already imposed heavy sanctions.
Little would be gained at the moment if Ukraine were to move closer to the EU more quickly, from which he obviously has high hopes;
in war accession is excluded anyway.
Selenskyj also has to be careful not to exaggerate with his rhetoric.
Giving top notes to EU countries was not a good idea.
Splitting is a Moscow method.