"Russian attacks are approaching day by day. I thought Kiev was safe, but it seems that it is no longer,"
said a man who evacuated his family abroad and still remains in Kiev, the capital of Ukraine. It is a state of the city.
The offensive strengthened by the Russian army.
On the other hand, there is an analysis that the Ukrainian army has recently turned to a counterattack.
From this month's offense and defense over Kyiv, President Putin's "miscalculation" has become apparent.
We will analyze in detail the contents of "miscalculation" and the reason for "difficulty".
"In Ukraine again with my family"
It has been a month since the Russian military invaded Ukraine.
Gera Tulaberize, 50, who has evacuated her family abroad and is still in the capital Kyiv, explained the situation in an online interview (interviewed on March 24, local time).
Q What is the current situation in Kyiv city?
"At the moment, some supermarkets are open, so we can secure food, but we do not know how long this situation will last. Citizens seem to be tired of the situation not improving."
Q Russia What about military attacks?
"About two kilometers from home, Russian troops fired at a residential area yesterday, destroying gas pipes and losing a place for many to live."
"In the weeks following the invasion, the residential area was not targeted. Russian attacks are approaching day by day. Explosive sounds and rocket attacks can be heard every night. Kiev thinks it is safe. But it doesn't seem to be the case. "
Q What do you hope for now?
"I want to live in Ukraine again with my family"
One month offensive and defensive battle over Kyiv
The Russian army has intensified its offensive against Kyiv immediately after the invasion began.
Russian troops believed to have headed south to Kyiv, mainly via Belarus.
A senior U.S. Department of Defense official pointed out at the time, "It is believed that they (= Russian troops) intend to destroy the Ukrainian government and establish their own way of governing."
Approximately two weeks after the invasion began, Russian troops approach about 15 kilometers from central Kyiv (US Department of Defense official analysis).
According to the latest war situation, Russian troops, which were 20 to 30 kilometers from the northeastern direction of Kyiv to the center, are believed to have retreated to a position of about 55 kilometers (US Department of Defense official analysis).
The British Ministry of Defense says Russian troops northeast of Kyiv are facing serious problems such as lack of supplies and demoralization.
Ukrainian troops have turned to counterattacks in several towns near Kyiv, and are in a position to siege Russian troops in Bucha and Irpin in the northwest.
→ Click here for a map of the entire battle situation from the start of the invasion
Putin's "miscalculation"
Under these circumstances, President Putin's "miscalculation" could be seen in the past month, and it can be said that the offense and defense over Kyiv symbolized it.
(1) Resistance on the Ukrainian side
(2) Insufficient preparation of the Russian army
(3) Demoralization of the Russian army
(4) Communication content is also intercepted
(5) Stagnant state due to force distribution
From these five factors, "miscalculation" I will read it in detail.
Ukrainian resistance
Ukrainian media reports that the Ukrainian army has formed a small, mobile unit, ambushing and attacking the Russian army, which has a military advantage.
Western countries such as the United States
have provided weapons such as the anti-
tank missile "Javelin" that penetrates the armor of tanks and the
portable surface-to-air missile "Stinger" that can shoot down helicopters and fighters .
Says.
It is a precision weapon that automatically guides powerful missiles toward the target, and also has the mobility that soldiers can carry on their shoulders and launch.
U.S. military experts have pointed out that in urban combat, defenders can ambush enemy invasions, which is advantageous, and Ukrainian sides are effectively using the weapons provided to stop the invasion. It seems that.
Russian army lack of preparation
Immediately after the invasion began, Russian troops were suffering from a shortage of supplies needed to carry out operations such as fuel and food, leading to a delay in their advancement.
The U.S. Department of Defense has analyzed that the Russian army, which was expected to be in a short-term battle, had not made an appropriate plan for replenishment, and there was a shortage of warm clothing locally, and some soldiers suffered frostbite and could not fight. There are signs that it is in a state.
The Ukrainian side is also attacking vehicles that supply Russian frontline troops, and the shortage of Russian troops continues to be a factor in the stagnation of troop advancement.
Russian army demoralization
According to the U.S. Department of Defense, some soldiers sent to the front line were not informed that they would join the fighting "just by participating in the exercises" and faced resistance from the Ukrainian side, demoralizing. There is also information that there is.
Communication content is also intercepted
The Russian army, which did not anticipate a long-term invasion, could not prepare a communication environment that could cover the vast Ukrainian territory, US media said, according to officials and others.
It means that the exchange of confidential information has to use a general system instead of a dedicated wireless communication system, and it seems that the Ukrainian army is intercepting the communication contents.
A stalemate due to force distribution
Experts have also analyzed that as a result of Russian troops trying to conquer multiple cities at the same time, such as the capital Kyiv and the second city of Kharkov, the forces have dispersed and have fallen into a stalemate in all regions.
"I don't think the Russian army was properly planned."
"Russia has never had such a large-scale operation since World War II, and I don't think it has
properly planned for the scale of the operation."
A senior U.S. Department of Defense official points out that this is the case.
Russia, a military power that was thought to be "overwhelmingly dominant" at the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine.
But the reality is not exactly that.
On the contrary, Ukraine makes the most of its weapons, such as anti-tank guns, and continues to resist at great cost.
On the other hand, the Russian army is said to have preserved its mighty force, including state-of-the-art fighters and bombers called the "fifth generation."
And, depending on the situation, it does not rule out the possibility of using nuclear weapons.
The battlefield between the Russian and Ukrainian troops continues to be unpredictable.