Case
War in Ukraine: in Africa, measures to combat the economic consequences
A petrol station in Nigeria, hit by rising prices due to the conflict in Ukraine.
AFP - PIUS UTOMI EKPEI
Text by: RFI Follow
10 mins
“
Africa is bearing the full brunt of this war in Ukraine
,” according to Macky Sall, current president of the African Union and president of Senegal.
The war in Ukraine causes both an inflationary shock, but also a scarcity of cereals and fertilizers.
Its effects are likely to last throughout the year and seriously affect countries already affected by the pandemic.
Several countries have already taken measures to try to limit the consequences.
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♦ In Côte d'Ivoire, concerns about inflation
Like the rest of the world, Côte d'Ivoire is facing an inflationary trend. Faced with the discontent due to the rise in prices that has been simmering for months, measures were taken last year. But because of the war in Ukraine, these measures have been amplified. Oil, rice, pasta, concentrated tomato, beef, sugar, milk, have seen their prices capped for at least three months. Twenty other consumer goods have been placed on the regulated price list. Some food products are even prohibited from export.
With our correspondent in Abidjan
,
Pierre Pinto
The government assures it:
to decree these measures
it took into account the stocks on the Ivorian market and has enough to see coming over the next three months.
Emergency measures already taken in recent months to curb an inflationary trend, but this time, the surge in wheat or oil prices due to the war in Ukraine worries in a country that is a big consumer of bread and or the liter of fuel, fixed at the beginning of each month, is currently around 630 CFA francs.
“
It is true that on wheat, we have some concerns since our supplies from our millers in Ukraine and Russia are appreciable, but there is still France which is an important supply for Ivorian millers.
It is especially from the months of May-June that we have some concerns.
For the moment, the market is stabilized, but we are in a forward-looking approach.
On fuel, there is a subsidy of 55 billion CFA francs which therefore makes it possible to stabilize the price of diesel between January and March 2022
”, explains Aimé Koizan, Director General of Internal Trade at the Ministry of Commerce. .
On the side of consumer organizations, we welcome the government's measures, like Jean-Baptiste Koffi, president of the Confederation of consumer organizations (Coc-Ci): "
If inflation continues, each state has the obligation to protect one's fellow citizens, to maintain social peace, to also maintain the purchasing power of a consumer.
We are also counting on our government to protect us, because if the price of a barrel continues to climb, there will certainly be measures that will be taken
.
»
According to the Ministry of Commerce, inflation is "
contained
" in Côte d'Ivoire.
It was 4.3% before the Ukrainian crisis.
♦ In Benin, support of 80 billion CFA francs
Benin is a country that imports a lot. Faced with a substantial surge in prices, the government announced on Wednesday after the Council of Ministers a series of measures to counter the collateral effects of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. They range from lowering or maintaining the prices of certain consumer products to exemptions. The government estimates this “support
”
for the populations at 80 billion CFA francs (approximately 12 million euros).
The measures are taken for a period of three months.
With our correspondent in Cotonou
,
Jean-Luc Aplogan
The products concerned are rice, wheat, vegetable oil, diesel and cement.
Their selling price has skyrocketed.
A few days ago, the consumer association called on the government for help and the unions demonstrated.
Among the announcements, the price of a 50 kilo bag of rice drops by 2,000 CFA francs, vegetable oils and imported wheat flour are exempt from 18% VAT.
As a result, the government is asking bakers not to increase the price of baguette bread.
Two other strong measures: the readjustment of electricity tariffs is suspended and the price of a ton of cement does not increase.
Service stations are also affected.
Difficult to get diesel since the beginning of the week.
The executive announces that it has built up a stock of fuel, and maintains the price per liter at 600 CFA francs (0.92 euro cents).
The Beninese are waiting to see if the said measures will be applied, the Council of Ministers asks to punish the offenders.
The supporters of Patrice Talon rejoice, their champion has always been accused of neglecting the social.
♦ In Nigeria, the fear of a shortage of fertilizers
Big concern about the availability of agricultural fertilizers after the Russian invasion in Ukraine since the belligerents are the main suppliers of urea, potash and phosphate in the world, essential components for the manufacture of fertilizer products.
In Nigeria
, farmers can still count on the inauguration this week of a huge fertilizer factory in Lagos, which could partially offset the risk of shortages.
With our correspondent in Lagos
,
Liza Fabbian
The prices of fertilizer products had already exploded during the global Covid-19 pandemic and they will certainly rise again due to the war in Ukraine.
Nigerian farmers are particularly likely to suffer from soaring prices of potash-based NPK fertilizers.
On the other hand, Nigeria has a head start in the production of ammonia and urea-based fertilizers, of which it is the leading African producer.
On Tuesday, Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari inaugurated billionaire Aliko Dangote's brand new fertilizer factory in Lagos.
This 500-hectare infrastructure, which cost $2.5 billion, has a production capacity of three million metric tons of granulated urea.
While Nigeria consumes less than 1.5 tons per year.
During the inauguration, Aliko Dangote notably affirmed that with the Ukrainian crisis, his group is spoiled for choice when it comes to exporting its fertilizer.
With requests from India, Brazil and the United States in particular.
♦ In the DRC, limit the impact of rising gasoline prices
Oil prices rose above the $120 per barrel threshold. In the DRC, the country also expects the effects of this crisis, particularly in the hydrocarbons sector and on wheat prices.
With our correspondent in Kinshasa
,
Patient Ligodi
The DRC imports more than it exports petroleum products.
The country is therefore dependent on the slightest external shock,
as is currently the case.
Moreover, the government had not provided budgetary resources to deal with the rise in international prices.
In question, among other things, a policy of regular intervention of the State which shows its limits for Al Kitenge, economic analyst: “
The error of the DRC is to have a subsidized price to relieve the citizens.
This holds when you have a large mattress and ours starts to crumble.
It is therefore important that the DRC has recourse to what is called the truth of the prices
.
»
According to sources at the Ministry of Finance, $85 million had been budgeted under the subsidy for petroleum products this year.
“
However, at the current rate of rising prices internationally, if we want to maintain price stability in the DRC, we will be around 400 million dollars to spend.
What we don't have
”, explain these same sources.
Al Kitenge suggests to the government in this case, to take courageous decisions.
This involves raising the price at the pump: “
We need to be able to explain to citizens that the mattress on which the State was going to draw to be able to subsidize is crumbling.
We will have to increase prices so that we do not play with the possibility of supplying ourselves on a regular basis
.
»
At this stage, no decision has been made.
♦ In Madagascar, a rise in the price of gasoline that seems inevitable
In Madagascar, fuel prices are set by the State. All service stations therefore charge the same prices. Thus, despite variations in the price of a barrel of crude oil, prices at the pump have barely changed in four years. A situation made possible thanks to the authorities who have been subsidizing fuel since 2010. It is difficult, according to specialists, for the State to be able to compensate for the difference between the displayed price and the actual selling price by the oil companies for a long time.
With our correspondent in Antananarivo
,
Sarah Tétaud
Like other oil-importing countries, Madagascar is suffering from the rise in the price of black gold, caused by the war in Ukraine, but in a discreet way.
At the pump, prices have not changed, and against all expectations, on Wednesday evening, the government preferred to postpone this difficult decision.
“
It's a small breath of fresh air, but it won't last.
This price increase is inevitable.
It is a political choice: between applying it immediately or later.
Because we must also bear in mind that inflation will have social consequences
”, analyzes David Rakoto, professor and researcher in economics at the University of Antananarivo.
These consequences, Laura, a consumer at the origin of the creation of the collective of disillusioned consumers, already imagines them: "
Every time we go to the grocery store, we see that the prices of basic necessities increase every week. .
The price of electricity has already tripled.
We know that it will increase sooner or later and I imagine that with an increase in the price of gasoline, the situation will get even worse
.
»
So that the price at the pump does not increase too much, the economist points out that the government has other means than simply reducing subsidies: “
For example, the reduction of taxes levied by the State on petroleum products.
Because the share of these taxes is still very high.
It still represents 40% of the price of oil.
So if the state makes a concession on these taxes, that could reduce the price increase.
We could also play on the exchange rate, in particular by deciding to apply a fixed exchange rate for oil imports.
We must also try to maintain purchasing power, especially that of the middle class because if consumption decreases, production will also decrease and there will be an economic recession.
Unemployment will increase, and when unemployment increases, along with inflation, there is a great risk of social explosion.
On top of that, if the salaries of civil servants,
.
»
Given Madagascar's dependence on imports, analysts predict widespread inflation in the country in the short term.
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