[Global Times reporter Zhang Ruo] The latest polls on the island show that the proportion of people who believe that the U.S. military will assist in defense "changed from optimism to pessimism."
This is also considered a consequence of the "Ukrainian effect".
According to a report by Taiwan's "United Daily News" on the 23rd, the latest poll released by the "Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation" on the 22nd asked "If the mainland invades Taiwan by force, do you think it is possible for the US military to send troops to help defend Taiwan".
The results showed that 10.5% of the respondents "very much believe that the United States will help defend Taiwan", 24% "fairly believe", 26.5% "do not believe", 29.4% "do not believe at all", 9.6% "have no opinion, I don't know, refuse to answer."
In other words, 34.5% of people believe that they will help defend, and 55.9% do not.
You Yinglong, chairman of the "Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation", said that a survey on the issue in October last year showed that 65% of the respondents believed that "the United States may send troops to defend Taiwan", while about 29% disagreed.
He said that the number of people who believe that the US will help defenders has plummeted by 30.5 percentage points in half a year, "from very optimistic to very pessimistic, this is an extremely unusual change in collective attitude", showing that after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Ukraine's experience is very important to Taiwan. People's hearts have a huge impact and change. "This spillover effect has historical particularity and can be called the 'Ukrainian situational effect'".
According to Pinpoint’s point of view, after the outbreak of the Ukraine war, the proportion of Taiwanese who believed that the U.S. military would assist in defense dropped sharply by 30.5 percentage points, equivalent to 6 million people; at the same time, the proportion of Taiwanese who believed that the U.S. military could not send troops to assist in defense surged by 27.4 percentage points.
In terms of party preference, the survey shows that 61% of DPP supporters believe in the US military, 29% do not; 19% of Kuomintang supporters believe, 77% do not; among KMT supporters, 11% believe, 86% % do not believe; among neutral voters, 18% believe and 68% do not.
From the perspective of age group, You Yinglong bluntly said that "no matter the age, most people tend not to believe in the US military", of which 21% of 20-24 year olds believe, 69% do not believe, 25-34 years old 39% believe, 53% do not believe .
The "Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation" also asked, "If one day the mainland sends troops, do you believe that the Japanese Self-Defense Forces will join the war to help defend Taiwan?" As a result, 13.4% of people said they "very believe", 29.7% "fairly believe", 23.1 % "do not believe very much", 25.5% "do not believe at all", 8.3% "have no opinion, do not know, refuse to answer".
Overall, 43% basically believe that the Japan Self-Defense Forces will help in defense, and 49% do not.
You Yinglong said that Taiwanese have quite different views on whether Japan will cooperate in defense. "But it is interesting that there are 8.6 percentage points more people who believe in Japan than those who believe that the U.S. military will cooperate in defense, which is a bit ironic."
On the 23rd, the latest poll released by TVBS TV showed that 57% of the respondents said they were not worried that the mainland would take advantage of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine to attack Taiwan, and 37% expressed concern; if a war broke out between the two sides of the strait, 44% of the people were concerned about the Taiwan military. Confidence in defense capability, 48% expressed no confidence.
The survey also showed that 55% of the respondents did not believe that the United States would send troops to defend Taiwan, 30% said they believed it, and 14% had no opinion.
"It is unrealistic to expect the United States and Japan to cooperate in defense of Taiwan." Wu Mingyan, an associate researcher of Taiwan's "National Policy Research Foundation", wrote on this topic on the 23rd, saying that since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the United States has not sent a single soldier to Ukraine. "This kind of scene, broadcasted by international media and social networking sites, has been seen by Taiwanese people, and the statement that Taiwan-US relations are 'rock solid' will be shaken."
As far as the Taiwan Strait is concerned, once a conflict breaks out across the Taiwan Strait in the future, the People's Liberation Army will definitely be more difficult to deal with than the Russian army. When former US Secretary of State Pompeo was asked when he visited Taiwan before, "Whether the United States is willing to send troops to help Taiwan's defense", he responded, "This is necessary. It is a question of careful consideration," and "even he has reservations about it, so it is not difficult to understand that the Taiwanese people's confidence in the United States' willingness to send troops to Taiwan has collapsed."
Speaking of Japan, if the public does not think that the US military will come to Taiwan to assist in defense, according to the Japan-US security treaty, Japan should not send troops either.
The article said that the DPP authorities have been instilling that "if something happens in the Taiwan Strait, the United States and Japan will inevitably come to defend Taiwan". Now this internal propaganda statement is punctuated by the "Ukrainian situation" in the real world.
The Tsai Ing-wen authorities should think practically about how to improve cross-strait relations and prevent Taiwan from becoming a "sacrificed pawn".