Russian President Vladimir Putin said in a televised speech on February 24 that he had decided to launch a special military operation in the Donbas region.
So far, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has been going on for a month.
Over the past month, Russia and Ukraine have been fighting and talking, and this has happened repeatedly, indicating that the complete end of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict will not be easy.
Around the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, a very complex game has been launched between the major powers in the world.
Regional security and international security are affected by it, and there will also be some ripple effects.
More profoundly, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has had a very serious impact on the international order.
The game between great powers is very complicated
From the perspective of the game of great powers, the current game between the major powers in the world around the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is very complicated, and the United States, Russia, the European Union and China are all involved.
For Russia, it should be said that from a strategic point of view, it has made great determination to resolve the differences between Russia and Ukraine by resorting to force this time.
But at present, the progress of the Russian army on the battlefield is not smooth, which will also affect the strategic direction of Russia in the future.
Of course, Russia hopes to control the situation through military quick-fix and quick-win, but the current anxious situation determines that it will be increasingly difficult for Russia to do so.
For Russia, whether to further strengthen its military offensive to seek complete victory, or to resolve it through diplomatic negotiations and seek a decent withdrawal is a strategic choice that Russia must make in the next stage.
There is no doubt that the United States bears inescapable responsibility for the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
Before the conflict escalated, the U.S. tried to sow discord, adding fuel to the fire.
When the war really broke out, although the United States was reluctant to engage in military intervention, it did not stand idly by, but rather quickly led the comprehensive sanctions against Russia, involving financial sanctions, trade sanctions, political sanctions, military sanctions and other aspects.
At the same time, it also seeks to encircle and suppress Russia in terms of international public opinion, trying to nail Russia to the pillar of international moral shame.
What's more, the United States is also trying to alienate China-Russia relations, forcing China to draw a clear line with Russia, and exerting greater pressure on Russia, hoping to force Russia to retreat in spite of the difficulties through strong international pressure.
It can be expected that in the future, the United States will continue to exert pressure on Russia through multilateral joint sanctions to force Russia to make concessions.
Geopolitical confrontation uncertainty is growing
For European countries, it is not monolithic.
On the issue of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the positions of the United Kingdom, France and Germany are not consistent.
European countries do not actually want the Russian-Ukrainian conflict to intensify, because this conflict means that Europe may return to the era of geopolitical confrontation, which is obviously not in European national interests.
Therefore, European countries hope that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine can be resolved through peaceful negotiation as soon as possible.
However, coerced by the US strategy, Europe's strategic autonomy is limited, which makes its response to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict depends on the US's face.
In any case, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has had a very important impact on regional security and even international security.
First and foremost, security in the European region is tougher.
In a short period of time, the game and confrontation between major powers will not subside in Europe, and the competition for strategic space around Russia will be very obvious.
In the future, the uncertainty of whether new geopolitical confrontations will emerge in Russia's surrounding strategic hinterland has also increased.
In addition, the security of the Middle East may be affected by some collateral effects.
Russia's strategic focus is mainly on Central and Eastern Europe. After the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, its military deployment will also be adjusted.
This will lead to a decrease in Russia's military deployment in the Middle East, changes in the game of major powers in the Middle East, and the security situation in the Middle East is very likely to undergo new changes due to the balance of power.
The impact on international security deserves attention
The impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on international security deserves attention.
Continued tense military confrontation between the United States and Russia, or NATO and Russia, would have extremely negative security implications.
Especially during the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the shadow of a global nuclear war reappeared. In the future, the United States and Russia need to strengthen control over strategic nuclear weapons.
Although the military strength ratio between the United States and Russia has undergone major changes, Russia still holds a large number of strategic nuclear weapons. If the United States continues to force Russia, it will increase the risk of global military confrontation and endanger the global balance of strategic power.
Regardless of when the Russian-Ukrainian conflict can end, it has become very clear that military action is not an appropriate option for resolving conflicts and differences between countries.
Even for a military power like Russia, resorting to war will be difficult to achieve, and dialogue rather than confrontation will be more common.
But the conflict's far-reaching impact on the international order has gradually taken shape.
It is hard to imagine that 30 years after the end of the Cold War, this kind of confrontation between major powers seems to have returned to the Cold War era, and mankind is even facing the crisis of nuclear war again.
This also indicates that the international order is very likely to undergo profound changes.
First, as the main force in shaping and maintaining the international order, changes in the relationship between major powers will trigger the adjustment of the basic forces of the international order.
The differentiation and confrontation between major powers will become more serious, the coordination and cooperation between major powers will be more difficult, and global governance will face more serious leadership deficits and governance deficits.
Second, the US imposing comprehensive sanctions on Russia through unilateralism will affect global economic cooperation.
Originally, the exchange of goods through globalization can promote win-win cooperation between countries, but this interdependence has become the soft underbelly of sanctions at a critical moment.
In this way, the trust among countries to carry out global economic cooperation will be affected, and the transaction cost of global economic cooperation will increase.
Third, international rules, institutional reputation and influence will be greatly impacted.
What kind of international order the future will be is obviously full of greater uncertainty.
Due to the hegemonic revisionist behavior of the United States, it is very likely that the world will be brought into an era of "death and music collapse".
In short, no matter how the conflict between Russia and Ukraine develops, its impact will exceed that of the "9.11" incident.
It is very likely that the game of great powers outside the battlefield will determine the way to resolve the military conflict, rather than the gains and losses of the offensive between Russia and Ukraine.
Since there is no quick solution, the complex influence of various internal and external factors will gradually emerge, which will jointly affect the process and outcome of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
Text | Ling Shengli (Director of the Center for International Security Studies, China Foreign Affairs University)