WASHINGTON

- Hours before he travels to Brussels to attend an emergency NATO summit to discuss measures that the alliance can take to confront Russia, US President Joe Biden and his administration are not showing a clear position in support or opposition to the negotiations between the Russian and Ukrainian sides seeking a settlement that would allow the fighting to stop.

Since the start of Russia's war on Ukraine about a month ago, 4 rounds of direct negotiations between representatives of the two sides have failed to reach a settlement, at a time when Washington is tightening its sanctions on Moscow with a focus on the flow of weapons, humanitarian supplies and financial aid to Kyiv.

Speaking to Al-Jazeera Net, Steve Beaver, an expert on European affairs and disarmament at the Brookings Institution, said, "I think Washington supports the ongoing negotiations in principle, but I very much doubt that US officials will urge President (Volodymyr) Zelensky to accept Moscow's extremist demands, and Zelensky will have to decide. What Ukraine can and cannot accept.


Ukraine needs to stop fighting

Bill Roggio, a former US Army officer and now expert at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, believes that Washington should not deceive itself and promote the possibility of Ukrainian victory in the fighting.

In an article on the foundation's website, Roggio wrote, "The West should not delude itself into believing that the Ukrainians will be rescued by wish. The Russian military uses a mixture of maneuvers and siege strategies, in an attempt to achieve its goal of breaking the Ukrainian army and government and taking control of vast areas of the country."

Roggio believes that when the Ukrainians put up stiff resistance in the cities, Russian forces bypass them to take other key targets, while at the same time the Russians try to encircle the cities and strike them with air and artillery strikes to subdue them.

He considered that what Ukrainian President Zelensky said about his country's future accession to NATO is only a reflection of the true state of Ukrainian defenses.

Zelensky had repeated to a number of foreign journalists in Kiev a few days ago, his desire to talk to Russian President Vladimir Putin in order to discuss a settlement that would stop the fighting, and said, "I need to talk to Putin, the world needs to talk to Putin, there is no other way to stop this war." .

He also confirmed during an interview with CNN last Sunday that he was ready to consider some concessions to Russia in order to help end the conflict, including his acceptance of a policy of neutrality if linked to strong security guarantees.

Zelensky's gesture to accept neutrality caused great alarm among US officials, according to a congressional source who spoke to CNN on the matter.


harsh russian terms

Moscow put forward several demands to achieve a ceasefire with Ukraine, and they can be summarized as follows:

  • First:

    Ukraine's neutrality, meaning its agreement not to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in the future.

  • Second:

    the disarmament of Ukraine while retaining a small army, and the provision of mutual security guarantees in the context of the Austrian model.

  • Third:

    The process that the Russian side refers to as the "de-Nazification".

  • Fourth:

    Ukraine's recognition of Crimea as a territory of Russia, and the recognition of the independence of the Donetsk and Lugansk republics in eastern Ukraine.

"If there is only a 1% chance for us to stop this war, I think we need to seize this opportunity, and we need to do that," Zelensky says.

Many commentators believe that if Ukrainian forces continue to perform well, Putin will have to accept some but not all of his demands. Conversely, if Russian forces make significant military progress, Putin will be able to fulfill most of his demands.


Washington's sanctions are part of the settlement

It is not imagined that the Russian side would agree to any settlement aimed at stopping the fighting and withdrawing its forces without lifting the sanctions imposed by Washington and the West on it.

For his part, James Acton, co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, called on Washington to support Ukrainian President Zelensky in his arduous negotiations with the Russians, by declaring unconditionally what the Ukrainian president agrees to.

Washington and its allies have sent mixed messages about easing Russian sanctions, with Under Secretary of State Victoria Nuland indicating her openness to them during a briefing to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

Acton notes that even at best, if Zelensky wants a negotiated settlement, he will likely have to make major concessions to Russia, as he has admitted, and many in the United States and Europe will likely be vehemently opposed to any such concessions.

“Ultimately, though, it is not their cause nor their people suffering, and the democratically elected Ukrainian government will have to decide the price it is willing to pay to end the destruction of its basic infrastructure and the safety of its citizens and preserve Ukraine as a sovereign nation,” Acton says.

Acton believes that Zelensky cannot end the war without Washington's support. Economic sanctions against Russia strengthen his position at the negotiating table, by raising the costs that Russia bears to continue the fight.

By the same token, however, it is virtually inconceivable that Russia would agree to a settlement without easing sanctions.

For this reason, the United States and its allies should be prepared to lift sanctions, including those imposed on the Russian Central Bank, if Russia and Ukraine negotiate a settlement agreement and begin implementing it.


Gray American position

Publicly, Washington does not pressure Ukraine to accept or reject specific concessions, and does not participate in the negotiation process. However, many American commentators question the credibility of Moscow's bet on negotiations.

Washington so far sees no indication that President Putin is ready to de-escalate the conflict, making it difficult for US officials to be optimistic about the current state of negotiations.

In a television interview last Sunday, the US ambassador to the United Nations, Linda Thomas Greenfield, refused to set conditions on what Washington will or will not accept when it comes to an agreement between Ukraine and Russia to end the fighting.

Speaking to CNN, Greenfield asserted, "It's up to the Ukrainians themselves to decide what's right for them, and it's theirs, not ours. We support their efforts."