Shortly after taking office, no federal government had to overcome such a challenge as the current one.

It is true that the previous chancellorship of a social democrat also began with a war.

But the armed conflict in the Balkans in 1998 and 1999, which the red-green coalition led by Gerhard Schröder had to deal with from the day the chancellor was elected, is not related to the Russian attack on Ukraine in terms of the dimensions and the threat to peace in Europe to compare.

Eckhart Lohse

Head of the parliamentary editorial office in Berlin.

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Compared to this, the traffic lights are remarkably quiet.

At that time there were already serious fault lines between Schröder and SPD chairman Lafontaine, which soon led to a break between the two, and a dispute in the ranks of the Green coalition partner about German participation in the Kosovo war, which almost led to the coalition falling apart , so far nothing of this magnitude has been observed in Olaf Scholz's red-green-yellow alliance.

Today everything is different

How can this be explained?

After the federal elections, when Vladimir Putin had long been planning his attack on Ukraine, the SPD and the Greens in particular rejoiced at the many young members in their groups.

Some may have looked forward to a strengthening of the left wings with joy, others with a certain concern.

At the head of the largest, the Social Democratic parliamentary group, is Rolf Mützenich, a decidedly left-wing foreign politician.

Not exactly ideal conditions for announcing a 100 billion special fund for the Bundeswehr two months after the chancellor election, the delivery of weapons to a war zone or the construction of liquid gas terminals on the German coast, which many Greens in particular do not want .

If you had told a young parliamentary novice from the SPD and the Greens (but also some veterans from other parties) in October that he would applaud the Chancellor's announcements while standing on a Sunday morning, shaking his head would probably have been the most harmless reaction.

The fact that a Green Economics Minister then flies to Qatar to exchange one authoritarian state as an energy supplier for another, also authoritarian, should under other circumstances have been enough for a special party conference that – like the Green Party in 1999 – questions the government alliance.

The fact that this does not happen, and that not even a serious number of critical tones are heard from important politicians from the government camp, is probably due to the shock and bewilderment that the pictures and news from Ukraine continue to trigger.

The dream of eternal peace was just a dream

Not only because of the immediate suffering, but also because of the growing realization with every Russian rocket that the dream of eternal peace in Europe was only a dream.

But at some point people get used to the biggest crises.

Then, bit by bit, everyday life will return to political Berlin.

Shortly after Scholz's government statement, the Greens pointed out that security was not just of a military nature.

The question now is how the 100 billion will be divided up, how much money will go into rearmament, how much will go into non-military security.

How controversial this debate is will certainly also depend on how the war in Ukraine continues and whether it even extends beyond it.

But in the end there is a certain probability that the age-old adage “all politics is local” will apply again.

Then the armaments policy should also become a subject of dispute within the coalition.

Skill or callousness?

A coalition whose cohesion in another field, which is currently the second most important of federal politics, has long been endangered anyway.

Whether you describe it as skill or callousness: The alignment of the reform of the Infection Protection Act with the interests of the FDP, i.e. the smallest of the three government partners, is astonishing.

The fact that the measures to fight off the pandemic were reduced to a minimum despite the high number of infections caused considerable outrage in the ranks of the SPD and Greens.

They would have liked to stick to many of the previous restrictions.

This also applies to the country heads, who only approved the new regulation with loud gnashing of teeth.

None of them come from the FDP.

Scholz has had some success on his way to the chancellor's office: his candidacy, his election campaign, the smooth coalition negotiations, then the 100 billion euro speech.

However, it is even more difficult than gaining power to retain it and to assert one's own course in the long term.