Western sanctions are starting to affect their daily lives
The Russians are beginning to realize that an economic storm is about to strike their lives
The Russian currency collapsed due to the recent sanctions.
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Queues began to appear in Russian cities.
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Almost overnight, Russia became the most sanctioned country in at least a century, if ever.
And about three weeks ago, most Russians enjoyed a relatively prosperous consumer life, with access to goods and services familiar to anyone in the West.
They were able to travel, use their bank cards, in Russia and in almost every country, order services online, like the rest of the world, and communicate on global platforms such as Facebook, Instagram and Twitter.
But Russia's so-called special military operation in Ukraine provoked a storm of economic and financial sanctions, in response.
The storm included the decision of brands such as McDonald's, Ikea and Coca-Cola, among 300 others, to end or "pause" their activities in Russia, and the place of Russians in the interconnected global economy was about to end, perhaps permanently.
Al-Monitor spoke with a group of Russians to try to gauge their initial experiences and attitudes about what appears to be a long-term crisis that will change their lifestyle.
Several "ordinary" people agreed to speak frankly on the condition that their family names were not used.
A few well-known analysts spoke out formally, and offered no political opinions that would be illegal under a new law on "fake news."
The emerging picture suggests that everyone is aware that an economic storm is about to hit their lives, while the crisis is still in its early days.
On a car ride in Moscow, the scenes look natural, with a little panic.
Grocery stores have well stocked shelves and slight price increases so far.
Most importantly, customers are still able to pay with their local bank cards, even if they carry the "Visa" and "MasterCard" logos;
Thanks to a Russian project that began at the dawn of sanctions, eight years ago, to develop self-reliance with a Russian payment system, it is now operational.
There are queues in pharmacies, as the supply of imported drugs is cut off, but so far there are no signs of panic buying essential foods;
Although legal limits are already placed on the quantities that can be purchased.
mostly, those with Western connections, such as family or business interests, or travel plans;
They began to notice the economic problems seriously.
For some, feelings of censorship and global isolation were most influential.
Nadezhda, a 40-year-old TV producer, says the decline of the ruble, the ban on receiving foreign currencies and high interest rates (now up to 20%) are all worrying. She canceled her birthday trip abroad, because the atmosphere suddenly closed,” she says. “She lost her money, but what was much worse was what she felt.
I suppose we can live without our favorite fast food, games and movies, it is nothing compared to what these people are going through in Ukraine.”
And the Russian citizen adds, “But what about the future?
Unemployment and social marginalization will lead to more crimes, and this is the reason for my greatest fear.”
Antonina, a middle-aged housewife whose husband is Ukrainian, says she is not worried about the shortages. "If the worst is the worst, we will eat beetroot, as we did before," she says.
But her husband, Yevgeny, a businessman from Odessa and a member of the Ukrainian diaspora, in Russia, says the matter is much more complicated than that. Even if it is carrying authorized merchandise.
Daily life is crumbling, with increasing repression, and I fear that I will be branded as a foreign agent if I continue to work for an international company.
So, I decided to emigrate.
“I hate the phrase collective responsibility," says Olga, a retired teacher.
I see hard times coming, and I feel sorry for the young people who have no experience of the troubles we went through in the Soviet era,” he continued, “They have already inhaled the spirit of freedom and tasted a new life!”
closed atmosphere
Paradoxically, the people most immediately affected appear to be the people who decided to leave Russia, fearing the future or opposing the Kremlin's policies.
According to reports, hundreds of journalists, IT specialists, and other professionals have already left Russia, with many seeking to make the decision.
Hello Move is a Netherlands-based immigration service that provides comprehensive assistance to Russians seeking to move to Europe, including residence permits, legal advice, logistical assistance and settlement assistance.
Over the past two years, the company has helped about 250 Russians, mostly professionals, businessmen and students, to make the move.
The CEO of Hello Move, Yuri Vilensky, says that the work has become much more difficult now, because most European embassies and consulates in Russia have closed their doors.
Meanwhile, almost all European countries closed their airspace to Russian aircraft, and Moscow responded by closing Russian airspace to Western airlines.
The catastrophe of the nineties
“It has become more difficult since the change in the geopolitical situation, but we can still make these arrangements through countries that still have their doors open in both directions, such as Georgia, Armenia, Turkey, and a few others,” Vilensky says.
He seems confident that solutions, or at least workarounds, will be found for most problems.
Russia's new currency rules and ban on the use of international bank cards are certainly an obstacle.
"People will start using money, as they did in the 1990s," Vilensky says.
Indeed, many people remember the catastrophe of the 1990s, when the Russian economy collapsed and people had to find innovative ways to survive.
Under the proposed law, any company that is closed down, "in the absence of clear economic reasons", can be taken over by the state, which will keep it operating until it is sold as a new company to a local owner.
So far, says Andrei Kolesnikov, a Moscow-based veteran political analyst, most people seem to be adapting to rapidly changing conditions, but they don't question their political convictions.
People go to stores and spend money, which is losing value, on goods that are quickly disappearing, according to the Russian analyst, but this has not yet affected their attitude to the conflict.
“I am a member of a small subgroup of people who could be politically persecuted as a long-time critic of the Kremlin,” Kolesnikov continued, “but I can't get paid.
Visa and MasterCard have done Putin a big favor, because now we can't use our cards abroad.
I understand the logic that we are all responsible for our president.
But I am not responsible, nor are many of my colleagues, and yet we are the first to pay the price.”
• Many Russians remember the catastrophe of the 1990s, when the economy collapsed and people had to find innovative ways to survive.
Paradoxically, it seems that the people most immediately affected are the people who decided to leave Russia, fearing the future or opposing the Kremlin's policies.
• 250 Russians, most of whom are professionals, businessmen and students, immigrated to Europe during the past two years.
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