War in Ukraine: Why a global food crisis is feared

Gauthier Delomez 10:48 a.m., March 21, 2022, modified at 10:49 a.m., March 21, 2022

This is perhaps the most dangerous consequence of the conflict in Ukraine.

Economist Bruno Parmentier, consultant on agriculture and food issues, warns of a risk of a global food crisis and a "hurricane of famine" which could affect many countries, at the dawn of the 26th day of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

"It's a big agricultural country and a big exporting country", reports the economist at the microphone of Europe 1, while Ukraine is bombarded by the Russian army.

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The economist points in particular to the production of cereals.

"China and India, which produce the most cereals, do not export them. So, among the countries capable of producing more than they eat, there are Russia and Ukraine. [These two countries ] produce about 15% of wheat, but represent 40% of exports", explains the consultant on agricultural issues, also author of the blog Nourrir Manger.

"It is not certain that they are sowing their wheat in Ukraine this year, nor that they are harvesting. What is certain is that exports through the port of Mariupol are not being done", indicates - he at the microphone of Julien Pearce.

North African countries most at risk

Among the countries most concerned by this risk are the countries of the Maghreb, and more generally of North Africa.

"You have to realize that Egypt, 105 million people, has only 4% arable land, and it's the world's biggest importer of wheat, year after year. If there isn't any no longer in Russia or Ukraine, wheat from the rest of the world, especially France, will not be enough. We will therefore have [a shortage] in Egypt, but also in Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia, Yemen, Lebanon, in Syria", explains Bruno Parmentier.

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France is exempt from this risk, because it is a major exporting country, underlines the economist.

"We only eat a third of our cereals. Wheat is a third for us, a third for our food and a third for export, so there will be no problem," he reassures. -he.

"There will be bread in our bakeries. Maybe the baguette will take ten centimes."

The alignment of many factors worries

If Bruno Parmentier warns of a global food crisis, international political leaders are aware of the problem, and the G7 has already organized a special meeting on this subject.

"The problem", warns the economist, "is that there are no stocks. World grain stocks, there are not many left. It is no longer fashionable, and in any case, it is difficult to make excess years".

There are "four to five months of stocks left", estimates Bruno Parmentier, who underlines that corn is also affected by this conflict in Ukraine, also a major producer.

For oilseeds, this affects rather in France "producers of pigs and chickens, so food prices will increase".

The economist highlights the fact that China has had a bad harvest this year, and that it "will weigh on the market" with its considerable financial means.

"We must pray that there is no climatic incident in the cereal areas this year and that the harvest is good", advances the economist on Europe 1.

Bruno Parmentier adds that many Ukrainian farmers are mobilized in the fighting, leaving aside their farms which can be bombarded.

"When the men were at war, the women took up agriculture. But there, the women and children took refuge," he argues.

The economist also puts his finger on essential nitrogen fertilizer, which comes in particular from Russian gas, and the price of which is likely to increase.

"All the factors will combine", with a risk of "food riots in many countries (...). We are in a very tense, extremely worrying situation", warns the economist.