It looks like a show of force: by mobilizing, on Sunday March 20, during his march for a Sixth Republic, several tens of thousands of people – 100,000 according to La France insoumise – Jean-Luc Mélenchon showed that it was necessary to reckon with him at least until April 10, for the first round of the presidential election… and maybe even beyond.
Because there is a dynamic in the campaign of the candidate of the radical left.
In addition to the Sunday rally, Jean-Luc Mélenchon's meetings systematically attract people from all over France.
This is reflected in the polls with a curve which, like the "sagacious turtle" of La Fontaine's fable to which he compares himself, is progressing slowly but surely: the polling institutes now credit him with 13-14% voting intentions, in third position but still a good distance behind Emmanuel Macron (30%) and Marine Le Pen (17-18%).
>> To read: "The useful vote on the left is Mélenchon", says Ségolène Royal
As a result, Jean-Luc Mélenchon is increasingly seen as a "useful vote" for the electorate on the left.
The other candidates of this political family seem, still according to the polls, clearly outdistanced: the ecologist Yannick Jadot caps around 5-6% of voting intentions, the communist Fabien Roussel emerges at 4-5% and the socialist Anne Hidalgo does not exceed 2%.
In this context, the march for the Sixth Republic was intended to convince the undecided.
"Each person is personally responsible for the result, each person has the key to the second round. (…) Do not hide behind the differences between the chefs and the labels. You are the one who makes the decision. Do not shirk", launched them Jean-Luc Mélenchon.
And making the choice of left-wing voters in the first round a "moral responsibility" in the face of Emmanuel Macron's program, the rebellious candidate warned: "This vote is a social referendum. You have been warned".
Each person, whatever their life and commitments, is personally responsible for the outcome of the presidential election.
Because it is each person who has the key to the second round, which opens the door to a better society.
#MarchePourLa6eRepublique pic.twitter.com/QomwtNf03l
— Jean-Luc Melenchon (@JLMelenchon) March 20, 2022
Will the argument be effective?
Some have already taken the plunge, like Christine, a 52-year-old former Yellow Vest, "not a fan of Jean-Luc Mélenchon" at the base but favorable to a Sixth Republic which would allow, as the rebellious candidate promises, to to move to a parliamentary system and to better share power between president, parliament and citizens.
"I will vote for him so that he defeats us of the Fifth Republic. Society is dehumanizing, depoliticizing. We have to change the system. I no longer trust politicians, but this time it's our last chance," says she told France 24.
A damaged image
But many other left-leaning voters remain reluctant.
The image of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, tarnished by his bloodshed like the episode "the Republic is me" in 2018 or by his foreign policy positions deemed too favorable to Russia, in particular the exit from the France of NATO, remains a handicap.
"For once, foreign policy is taking on real importance in the campaign and it will be difficult for Jean-Luc Mélenchon to succeed in convincing a whole section of the electorate on the left who are sensitive to this question and attached in particular to the adhesion of France to NATO," said political scientist Gérard Grunberg, contacted by France 24.
>> To read: How Hidalgo and Jadot use the Ukrainian crisis to attack Mélenchon
Especially since the ecologist Yannick Jadot and the socialist Anne Hidalgo continue to attack him on the Ukrainian question.
And the more credibility the hypothesis of the accession of the rebellious candidate to the second round of the presidential election gains, the more the pikes become acerbic, like Anne Hidalgo who caricatures Jean-Luc Mélenchon as "complacent and complicit with dictators".
Even the former socialist president, François Hollande, stepped up to criticize the idea of a useful vote in favor of the deputy of Bouches-du-Rhône.
"At some point, you have to have a useful president, not just a useful vote," he said on Wednesday March 9 on France Inter.
.@fhollande does not advise voting Jean-Luc Mélenchon: "You have to have a useful president, not just a useful vote"#le79Inter pic.twitter.com/rlxTFptgIv
– France Inter (@franceinter) March 9, 2022
"The stakes are high for the Socialist Party, which is playing its survival, underlines Gérard Grunberg. We know that this election is already lost for the PS, but in terms of image, the accession of Jean-Luc Mélenchon to the second round would deal him a fatal blow."
So the moderate left taps as best it can on the former socialist senator, even if it means favoring a new second round between Emmanuel Macron and the far right.
"We are rebuilding more on a field of ruins where everyone (on the left) arrives at the highest around 12% than on a field of ruins where Mélenchon arrives high", affirms a socialist parliamentarian, quoted by Liberation.
The key to participation
Abstainers are the other key to a possible accession to the second round of Jean-Luc Mélenchon.
"Around me, I see a constant rise in abstention, apathy. There is a great disillusionment with politics", judge Hélène, 32, present on Sunday at the march for the Sixth Republic, " despite Mélenchon rather than for him", she told France 24 jokingly.
However, she believes that "Mélenchon is right to propose a constituent assembly and the revocation of mandates" because "we must give power back to people so that they invest themselves again".
Hélène was seduced by the proposal for a Sixth Republic, other voters may be seduced by retirement at 60, the minimum wage at 1 euro net, the price of gasoline blocked at 1.40 euro, the autonomy allowance of 1,063 euros for students or the massive investments promised in public services.
In any case, this is the bet that Jean-Luc Mélenchon makes by sending his activists to crisscross the working-class neighborhoods to meet the abstainers, or when he addresses them by evoking "a choice of society" by repeating three times, in case Emmanuel Macron's proposal has gone unnoticed: "Retirement at 65! Retirement at 65! Retirement at 65!"
>> To see: They will not vote in the presidential election: these French people disenchanted with politics
"What the abstainers will do remains unknown, but the problem for Jean-Luc Mélenchon is that the re-election of Emmanuel Macron is considered probable by most French people, indicates Gérard Grunberg. However, this risks being a factor of abstention because without any real hope of victory on arrival, voters on the left could be demotivated.
No doubt aware of this reality, Jean-Luc Mélenchon responds to this argument by insisting on the consequences of his presence in a debate between two rounds against Emmanuel Macron.
Instead of talking about immigration and security against Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour or Valérie Pécresse, a Macron-Mélenchon second round would force the outgoing president to talk about social protection, ecological bifurcation, housing and retirement.
A prospect likely to resurrect the right-left divide and which should on the contrary give the electorate on the left reasons to hope, analyzes the entourage of the rebellious candidate.
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