After more than a century and a half of economic development devoting fossil fuels, the world has gained approximately +1.1°C on average compared to the pre-industrial era, already multiplying heat waves, droughts, storms or devastating floods.

The new report by UN climate experts (IPCC) on solutions to reduce emissions, which will be published on April 4 after two weeks of heated discussions online and behind closed doors, "will paint a picture sad about our addiction to fossil fuels," said WWF's Stephen Cornelius, who has an observer seat in the negotiations.

In the first part of its report published in August 2021, the IPCC pointed to the acceleration of global warming, predicting that the threshold of +1.5°C compared to the pre-industrial era - the most ambitious objective of the Paris agreement- could be reached already around 2030.

The second, at the end of February, described as "a compendium of human suffering" by the UN boss, painted a more than bleak picture of past, present and future impacts on people and ecosystems, stressing that delaying action reduced the chances of a "liveable future".

A water bomber plane over a forest fire on August 16, 2021 near the Israeli village of Moshav Shoresh Ahmad GHARABLI AFP/Archives

The third opus will look at the possible ways to slow down global warming, by breaking down the possibilities by major sectors (energy, transport, industry, agriculture, etc.), without forgetting the questions of social acceptability and the place of technologies such as and carbon storage.

"We are talking about a large-scale transformation of all the major systems: energy, transport, infrastructure, buildings, agriculture and food," climate economist Céline Guivarch, one of the authors of the report, told AFP. .

"Humanity at a Crossroads"

Major transformations that must be "started now" if we want to be able to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, she added, stressing that it is "never too late to act" and avoid the worse.

These questions, which affect the very organization of our ways of life, consumption and production, risk giving rise to heated discussions during these two weeks when the 195 States will sift through line by line, word by word, the "summary for decision-makers", a kind of summary of the thousands of pages of the scientific report.

In a context made even more "flammable" by the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, notes Alden Meyer, analyst at the E3G think tank, who expects speeches around the conflict.

On the climate front, he hopes that "in the long term" this war will "give more momentum and impetus to the need to get out of gas and oil in general".

"This is a crucial report published at a crucial time when states, companies and investors are recalibrating their plans to accelerate the rapid exit from fossil fuels and the transition to sustainable and more resilient food systems," said Kaisa. Kosonen from Greenpeace.

February temperature anomalies around the world Simon MALFATTO AFP

"Now more than ever, the IPCC must provide concrete and practical tools for humanity, which is at a crossroads".

While according to the UN, the current commitments of the States, if they were respected, would lead to a "catastrophic" warming of +2.7°C, the signatories of the Paris agreement are called upon to strengthen their ambitions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by the UN climate conference COP27 in Egypt in November.

"We know what we have to do, and for a long time (...) Our leaders must get us out of fossil fuels", insists Taryn Fransen, of the World Resources Institute.

"They will, or they won't."

© 2022 AFP