After the dwindling dreams of joining NATO .. ​​What are the conditions for Ukraine to accept “neutrality” as a solution to stop the war

Lviv -

Day after day, Ukraine's dream of membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization "NATO", which before the Russian war on it was a strategic goal and a constitutional approach binding on all the country's authorities, was dashed for the first time in 2016 and approved 3 years later.

But the Russian war left a new reality, it seems, according to which Ukraine realized that realizing this dream is impossible, and not as difficult or unattainable as it was before. is taken.

 disappointment and doubt

With clear disappointment, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky expressed this reality by saying a few days ago, “We will not become a member of NATO,” indicating that the alliance is not ready to defend this country, or help it forcefully to defend itself, especially through direct support with arms. or the imposition of a no-fly zone over the country's airspace.

At the same time, Zelensky questioned the ability of the alliance to protect its member states neighboring Ukraine as well, if Russian missiles reached them, which is the protection provided for in Article 5 of the NATO Charter.

The Ukrainian disappointment gradually came with the progress of the days of the war that has been going on since February 24, but it was reinforced after Russia targeted the International Center for Peace and Security in the Yavoriv region in the far west of the country, which was the scene of the joint Ukrainian-Atlantic exercises.

Negotiations in Belarus between the delegations of Ukraine and Russia (Al-Jazeera)

“Guarantees” to search for “neutrality”

Within the framework of the negotiation processes with Russia, which stipulate the "neutrality and disarmament of Ukraine", Kyiv is actively searching today for alternative "security guarantees" to the idea of ​​membership, enabling it to accept these conditions.

On this matter, Mikhailo Podolyak, an advisor to the Ukrainian president, says, "We no longer want to rely on bureaucratic procedures (regarding NATO membership endeavors) but rather direct and firm guarantees."

What is meant here is the gathering of the Russian, British and American parties that guaranteed Ukraine its security and territorial integrity in the framework of the 1994 Budapest Document, according to which the country renounced nuclear weapons, with Turkey's involvement in the new guarantees, at the desire of Kyiv as a "strong regional and international player."

Haran: Ukraine has commonalities with Austria and Finland, which declared neutrality before (Al-Jazeera)

Neutrality according to European models

Ukraine insists on accepting "neutrality" as well, according to European models that have been much talked about recently, such as Austria and Finland, which declared neutrality for fear of Soviet control before, and "Partnership for Peace" with NATO at a later time.

In an interview with Al Jazeera Net, Oleksiy Haran, a professor of political science at the Kyiv-Mohyla Academy, said that "Ukraine has common denominators with these two countries, and Switzerland, which is not a member of NATO either, among the most important are the strategic vital sites of all the conflicting parties around it, and its neutrality - indeed -". It may be unanimous, not competitive."

In order for the picture to be more similar, Ukraine insists on adhering to the EU membership endeavors, whose procedures have already begun, according to the European Commission, and a decision on them is expected within months, according to President Zelensky.

Internal compatibility and warnings

And because the war and efforts to stop it impose themselves at the top of the priorities, the proposal of "neutrality" today is not met with waves of anger among the political circles in Ukraine, but some figures warn against falling into the "trap".

In a television interview, the former Ukrainian Prime Minister, Arseny Yatsenyuk, warned that neutrality would lead to his country's practical "surrender", considering that the application of the current Russian conditions meant this, in reference to the disarmament and abandonment of Western weapons.

Yatsenyuk linked this to the amount of guarantees that his country will obtain, saying that "Russia is an unreliable party (indicating that it is fighting Ukraine instead of guaranteeing its security and safety in accordance with the Budapest Document of 1994) and the rest of the parties concerned should determine the guarantees and procedures necessary to implement them when necessary."