"The decline in the intention to vote is quite alarming"

• The abstention rate in the first round of the 2022 presidential election could beat the record of April 21, 2002.

• Even if they are more numerous, the abstentionists always come from the same groups of the population, underlines Adelaïde Zulfikarpasic, director of the BVA Opinion institute, in an interview with

  20 Minutes

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• Jean-Luc Mélenchon has everything to gain by having those who hesitate to go to the polls vote, they are more inclined to vote for him.

28.4%.

This figure is the record for abstention in a first round of presidential elections, traditionally the most mobilizing ballot in France.

It was April 21, 2002, and we remember the commotion caused at the time by the qualification of Jean-Marie Le Pen in the second round.

Next April 10, it could be much worse, if we believe the polls, which are rare to see abstention below 30% of registered voters.

Adelaïde Zulfikarpasic, director of BVA Opinion explains to

the springs of this abstention, and who has to gain from bringing the French women and men back to the polls.

It is traditionally difficult for pollsters to gauge voter turnout.

What about this year?

In general, turnout is assessed on a scale of 0 to 10, asking people on the voters list if they intend to vote in the first round, "0" expressing the fact of being absolutely certain that whatever happens, you will never vote and “10” expressing the opposite – in any case, you are absolutely certain to vote.

The marks “9” and “10” are then aggregated to assess the participation rate.

That, we observed empirically. 

Today, we measure a turnout that is down compared to 2017: 71% of French people intend to vote, 29% could abstain – therefore more than on April 21, 2002. There was a renewed interest in participation in our previous wave, linked to the announcement of the official candidacies, the start of the presidential campaign and the Ukrainian crisis, which revived interest in politics at a time when it is becoming very concrete .

I thought it was going to last, but it's not.

What is the main driver of this potential non-participation?

There are two.

We had already made a first focus, in October, on abstention and non-registration on the lists and, at the time, the main driver was disenchantment, disillusion and this feeling of uselessness of the vote .

What we were told was “I don't expect much from these elections”;

“It will not change anything in my daily life”.

Today, that remains the primary driving force, but there is now a second, cited at the same level, which is the impression that the stakes have already been cast, the lack of suspense in this election [with Emmanuel Macron largely in head of voting intentions in the first round], which further reinforces the feeling of uselessness of the vote.

It's all that, much more than anger.

We sometimes hear it said that abstention is a cry of anger, this is not the case,

Since the beginning of the campaign, the intention of participation has ups and downs, it is not linear.

Is this a particular feature of this election?

In 2017, there were also ups and downs.

On the other hand, so close to the first round, it is surprising.

Usually, interest is growing in the last few weeks.

In 2017, the vote took place on April 23 [two weeks later than this year] and, in our wave of March 15-17, 2017, the intention to vote was 73%, 76% the following week, and 77% at the beginning of April.

In the last days of the official campaign, it rises to 80% to finally arrive at a result of 77%.

The fact that it is down to three weeks before the election is quite alarming.

You make a fairly precise description of “who is abstaining”.

And even if, a priori, they could be more numerous, their profile is very classic, ultimately.

Classically, abstainers are people who are less "in the game", less in the system, because they are not yet professionally or socially integrated.

So there we find the young people and the CSP-.

They were already the ones who voted less thirty years ago and they are still the ones who vote less today.

In larger proportions – because overall people vote less – but that's nothing new.

We already learned that in my electoral sociology classes more than twenty years ago!

Are there candidates who have more to lose than others with a strong abstention?

Yes, we see it very strikingly in our survey: there is a real stake in electoral participation for Jean-Luc Mélenchon.

Four out of ten supporters of La France insoumise say they can abstain.

We also see it in other surveys that we have been able to do on the hesitant, who are more on the side of Jean-Luc Mélenchon.

On a scale of 0 to 10 of the intention to vote, those who answer us 7 or 8 are more inclined to want to vote Mélenchon than those who answer 9 or 10. Marine Le Pen also potentially has a little to lose with a low participation because it is also on socio-professional categories, in particular the CSP-, who vote less.

Nevertheless, the CSPs who are on the threshold of participation, they are more with Jean-Luc Mélenchon than with Marine Le Pen.

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• Presidential election 2022

• Abstention

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