Russian and foreign experts considered it unlikely a full Russian military operation in Ukraine, and these allegations were seen as another anti-Russian campaign promoted by preachers and extremists, but later it turned out to be correct predictions, so why did such a “fundamental mistake” happen?
In these terms, the website of the Russian Council opened a report on the erroneous estimates of experts about the possibility of a war between Russia and Ukraine, stressing that despite their miscalculation, these experts were not wrong in assessing the consequences, even before the start of the “special operation” in The Donbass region was clear to them that it would cause serious damage to both countries.
Analysts proceeded from the fact that understanding such damage is a strong argument for not starting an armed conflict with Ukraine, an accurate assessment of the consequences, but they misjudged the position of those who made the decision to start the war.
The use of force seemed unlikely even after Russia recognized the republics of Donetsk and Luhansk, and 3 months before the start of the war, the site identified 7 possible consequences and consequences in the event of its outbreak:
First: the prolongation of the conflict, the Russian army inflicted heavy damage on the Ukrainian armed forces, yet these forces are still stationed in large cities, the storming of which could lead to great military and civilian losses.
Second: The West has united in the issue of aid to Ukraine and doubled its size, and it is not yet ready for an armed confrontation with Russia, but it will provide significant financial and military support to Ukraine, and the supply of military equipment is feasible because the western borders are not under the control of Russian forces.
Among the weapons that will be sent to Ukraine will be Soviet samples from the former Warsaw Pact countries that are somewhat compatible with Ukrainian technology, as well as Western weapons whose development does not require long training, including man-portable air defense systems and anti-tank guided missiles.
Third: Russia's diplomatic isolation. Moscow's actions are explicitly or hypothetically viewed as aggression against a sovereign state. The West's political position on this issue is unambiguous and unified, and non-Western countries either join this view or withdraw from the assessments.
Fourth: Imposing unprecedented sanctions on Russia, and bragging and statements that we are indifferent to the sanctions are things that do not correspond to reality, and unlike Iran, which has been gradually imposed, the economic blow to Russia is massive and sharp and aims to destabilize the economy in a short time.
Fifth: The control over the territory of Ukraine - even in the event of the defeat of a large part of the Ukrainian armed forces - is still questionable, and the current situation shows the complexity of solving such a problem, as encircling cities is fraught with humanitarian crises, and storming them would lead to more civilian casualties. .
Sixth: It seems that Ukrainian society is uniting on the basis of confrontation with Russia regardless of regional differences, and if supporters of extreme nationalism and anti-Russian sentiment represented a minority, they have now become a national identity, and civilian casualties reinforce this trend, and Ukrainians are engaged in the resistance and are acquiring weapons and ammunition.
Seventh: The military action against Ukraine led to controversial operations in Russia itself, and the population was divided into opponents and supporters of the decision, and the first section expresses its protest in one way or another, feels frustrated and tries to deny what is happening.
So far, there is no documented data that shows the true level of anxiety in Russian society and the true proportion of opponents and supporters of the decision to go to war.
Two additional factors
In addition to the consequences of the conflict that were predicted 3 months ago, two other factors must now be added:
The first: the move towards a significant increase in the military presence of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in Eastern Europe, and so far the Western alliance has moved away from active intervention, yet tensions in relations with the bloc will inevitably grow, including in the field of strategic deterrence.
The other element is the bullying and persecution of Russian citizens abroad, especially in Western countries, as the current events have led to a high level of aggressiveness that will be vented against ordinary people just because they are Russian.