Everything paves the way for the NATO issue to become an important election issue

Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine has brought the issue of Swedish NATO membership high on the political agenda.

Opinion polls show that more and more Swedes want to join NATO.

Almost half of Swedish voters are now in favor of NATO membership.

In the Riksdag, there are four parties that want Sweden to join NATO;

The Moderates, the Liberals, the Christian Democrats and the Center Party.

There is thus no majority in the Riksdag for a membership.

However, the Sweden Democrats have released their clear no-line and have opened up for membership, for example if Finland joins.

Attentive statement

The Social Democrats, the Green Party and the Left Party are opposed to membership.

Even if individual S-debaters have opened up for a turnaround in the issue, they do not receive support from the party leadership.

Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson recently claimed that the Prime Minister of Sweden would destabilize the security situation in northern Europe.

A statement that attracted international attention because it is so representatives of the Russian government usually describe the consequences of a Swedish NATO membership.

When the moderate leader Ulf Kristersson on Friday makes his proposal on the NATO issue on DN Debatt, there are several important position changes here compared with how the Moderates have previously described the issue.

When a Swedish NATO membership was discussed during Fredrik Reinfeldt's time as Prime Minister, he said that such a 

 the support of the Social Democrats and that Finland chose to join.

Ulf Kristersson does not agree with this.

Instead, Kristersson believes that if he becomes prime minister and there is a majority in the Riksdag to submit an application, it will happen.

Regardless of what the Social Democrats think and regardless of what decision Finland arrives at.

Giving the Social Democrats a special position and de facto a veto against a NATO application is no longer a prerequisite due to the changed parliamentary situation, according to the Moderates, who believe that the Sweden Democrats' support for a membership application is fully sufficient.

Hot election issue

Ideally, the Moderates want Sweden and Finland to become members of NATO together.

Should Finland land a no after the spring's debate in the Riksdag, however, Kristersson will, if he becomes Prime Minister, still try to push through a yes in the Swedish Riksdag.

All this paves the way for the NATO issue to become an important election issue this autumn.

However, it should not be ruled out that a membership process may then have already begun, for example if Finland decides to submit an application this spring.

When the Swedish parliamentary parties now discuss how the security policy situation has changed after Russia's attack on Ukraine, they also look at how the Finnish parliamentary parties analyze the situation.

Just as in Sweden, there is a discussion about the advantages and disadvantages of a NATO membership and several observers believe that Finland may well end up in a decision to submit an application for membership.

The process in Finland will thus be of great importance for the process in Sweden and vice versa.

Should Finland land in a decision to join NATO, it will put pressure on the Swedish government to change its position on the issue.

Should Sweden choose to join NATO, it will be difficult for Finland to stand outside.